With seven weeks left in the regular season, a check in on which teams are benefiting from playing easy schedules -- and which could benefit in the coming weeks.
I'm posting this at halftime of the Monday night game. The Bucs are leading, and I'll assume they'll hang on and win. If not, I'll go back and adjust it, with about half of the following numbers changing by a game or so.
The Lions are the easiest remaining schedule. Their final seven games are against teams that are currently a combined 14-31. That could help lift them to the top of the NFC North. (That's not to imply, by the way, that Detroit hasn't earned its current first-place standing -- it's beaten Chicago twice). But Detroit looks like the clear favorite there.
Other teams with softer schedules: Buffalo, Green Bay and Dallas. But with the Packers playing without Aaron Rodgers, tough to see them lighting up any defense right now.
The hardest schedules for Weeks 11-17 belong to the four teams in the AFC West -- Kansas City, Denver, San Diego and Oakland. (At least based on wins; I'll post the strength of schedule charts subbing in points for wins on Wednesday or Thursday).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 11-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| Detroit | 14 | 31 | .311 |
| Buffalo | 14 | 25 | .359 |
| Green Bay | 18 | 28 | .391 |
| Dallas | 16 | 23 | .410 |
| Jacksonville | 21 | 28 | .429 |
| Houston | 21 | 27 | .438 |
| NY Jets | 20 | 25 | .444 |
| Chicago | 21 | 26 | .447 |
| Cincinnati | 18 | 22 | .450 |
| Philadelphia | 18 | 22 | .450 |
| Seattle | 18 | 22 | .450 |
| San Francisco | 21 | 24 | .467 |
| Cleveland | 22 | 25 | .468 |
| Indianapolis | 23 | 26 | .469 |
| Tennessee | 23 | 25 | .479 |
| Washington | 23 | 25 | .479 |
| New Orleans | 22 | 23 | .489 |
| New England | 23 | 24 | .489 |
| Atlanta | 22 | 22 | .500 |
| Arizona | 25 | 24 | .510 |
| Baltimore | 25 | 22 | .532 |
| Miami | 25 | 22 | .532 |
| Pittsburgh | 25 | 22 | .532 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 21 | .543 |
| Carolina | 24 | 20 | .545 |
| NY Giants | 26 | 20 | .565 |
| St. Louis | 23 | 17 | .575 |
| Minnesota | 29 | 19 | .604 |
| Oakland | 30 | 19 | .612 |
| Kansas City | 29 | 18 | .617 |
| Denver | 30 | 18 | .625 |
| San Diego | 31 | 16 | .660 |
As for what we have seen so far, it looks like Kansas City, San Diego, Minnesota, Denver and Carolina have benefited the most from playing softer schedules.
Jacksonville, Buffalo, Houston and Dallas appear to have played the hardest schedules.
Not on this chart, that the numbers show only how opponents have played in OTHER games. That is, Kansas City's opponent's opponents aren't a combined 22-33 because they're 0-9 against KC. They're actually a combined 22-42 if you want to toss those win (making Kansas City a runaway leader). And when I list Jacksonville at 35-20, that's actually 43-21 if you include the Jaguars' own games.
I leave out the own games played by teams to level the playing field (otherwise teams with really good records will tend to look like they've played easy schedules, and teams with poor records will tend to have a built-in excuse).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-10) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| Kansas City | 22 | 33 | .400 |
| San Diego | 22 | 32 | .407 |
| Minnesota | 22 | 30 | .423 |
| Carolina | 24 | 30 | .444 |
| Denver | 24 | 30 | .444 |
| Philadelphia | 27 | 32 | .458 |
| Oakland | 25 | 29 | .463 |
| Pittsburgh | 25 | 29 | .463 |
| Seattle | 28 | 32 | .467 |
| Chicago | 25 | 27 | .481 |
| New Orleans | 26 | 28 | .481 |
| St. Louis | 29 | 31 | .483 |
| San Francisco | 27 | 28 | .491 |
| Green Bay | 27 | 27 | .500 |
| New England | 26 | 26 | .500 |
| Arizona | 27 | 26 | .509 |
| Atlanta | 27 | 26 | .509 |
| Miami | 27 | 26 | .509 |
| NY Jets | 27 | 26 | .509 |
| Tennessee | 29 | 27 | .518 |
| Detroit | 28 | 26 | .519 |
| NY Giants | 28 | 26 | .519 |
| Washington | 28 | 26 | .519 |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 25 | .519 |
| Indianapolis | 29 | 26 | .527 |
| Baltimore | 28 | 25 | .528 |
| Cleveland | 29 | 25 | .537 |
| Cincinnati | 32 | 27 | .542 |
| Dallas | 33 | 26 | .559 |
| Houston | 32 | 24 | .571 |
| Buffalo | 35 | 23 | .603 |
| Jacksonville | 35 | 20 | .636 |
--Ian Allan

