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Strength of schedule

Lions might ride easy schedule to NFC North

With seven weeks left in the regular season, a check in on which teams are benefiting from playing easy schedules -- and which could benefit in the coming weeks.

I'm posting this at halftime of the Monday night game. The Bucs are leading, and I'll assume they'll hang on and win. If not, I'll go back and adjust it, with about half of the following numbers changing by a game or so.

The Lions are the easiest remaining schedule. Their final seven games are against teams that are currently a combined 14-31. That could help lift them to the top of the NFC North. (That's not to imply, by the way, that Detroit hasn't earned its current first-place standing -- it's beaten Chicago twice). But Detroit looks like the clear favorite there.

Other teams with softer schedules: Buffalo, Green Bay and Dallas. But with the Packers playing without Aaron Rodgers, tough to see them lighting up any defense right now.

The hardest schedules for Weeks 11-17 belong to the four teams in the AFC West -- Kansas City, Denver, San Diego and Oakland. (At least based on wins; I'll post the strength of schedule charts subbing in points for wins on Wednesday or Thursday).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 11-17)
TeamWLPct
Detroit1431.311
Buffalo1425.359
Green Bay1828.391
Dallas1623.410
Jacksonville2128.429
Houston2127.438
NY Jets2025.444
Chicago2126.447
Cincinnati1822.450
Philadelphia1822.450
Seattle1822.450
San Francisco2124.467
Cleveland2225.468
Indianapolis2326.469
Tennessee2325.479
Washington2325.479
New Orleans2223.489
New England2324.489
Atlanta2222.500
Arizona2524.510
Baltimore2522.532
Miami2522.532
Pittsburgh2522.532
Tampa Bay2521.543
Carolina2420.545
NY Giants2620.565
St. Louis2317.575
Minnesota2919.604
Oakland3019.612
Kansas City2918.617
Denver3018.625
San Diego3116.660

As for what we have seen so far, it looks like Kansas City, San Diego, Minnesota, Denver and Carolina have benefited the most from playing softer schedules.

Jacksonville, Buffalo, Houston and Dallas appear to have played the hardest schedules.

Not on this chart, that the numbers show only how opponents have played in OTHER games. That is, Kansas City's opponent's opponents aren't a combined 22-33 because they're 0-9 against KC. They're actually a combined 22-42 if you want to toss those win (making Kansas City a runaway leader). And when I list Jacksonville at 35-20, that's actually 43-21 if you include the Jaguars' own games.

I leave out the own games played by teams to level the playing field (otherwise teams with really good records will tend to look like they've played easy schedules, and teams with poor records will tend to have a built-in excuse).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-10)
TeamWLPct
Kansas City2233.400
San Diego2232.407
Minnesota2230.423
Carolina2430.444
Denver2430.444
Philadelphia2732.458
Oakland2529.463
Pittsburgh2529.463
Seattle2832.467
Chicago2527.481
New Orleans2628.481
St. Louis2931.483
San Francisco2728.491
Green Bay2727.500
New England2626.500
Arizona2726.509
Atlanta2726.509
Miami2726.509
NY Jets2726.509
Tennessee2927.518
Detroit2826.519
NY Giants2826.519
Washington2826.519
Tampa Bay2725.519
Indianapolis2926.527
Baltimore2825.528
Cleveland2925.537
Cincinnati3227.542
Dallas3326.559
Houston3224.571
Buffalo3523.603
Jacksonville3520.636

--Ian Allan

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