Can Nick Foles keep it up? He's had the white-hot hand, with 16 TDs and no interceptions, and the schedule indicates that he'll also also face the softest pass defenses the rest of the way. Nick Foles ... hmm.
I usually post strength of schedule numbers for wins and for points allowed by defenses. That's more than enough, in my opinion. You start get too specialized (I think) and you start to drift off course. I've looked at strength of schedule cause and effect over the years (and I've got about 20 years of this stuff), and that's been my conclusion.
But I think there are some guys out there who value it more than I do, so I will provide it. Give the customers what they want.
So here's some specialized strength-of-schedule stuff.
Up first, passing production. This is the average passing production allowed by the remaining defenses on the schedule -- yards and passing touchdowns. They're in order of fantasy points, using 6 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 10 yards.
The Eagles, Kansas City, Bears and Giants project to play the easiest schedules. The Colts, Saints, Rams and Jaguars project to play the hardest.
Now, I'm not saying Drew Brees will be the No. 31 quarterback going harder, but they'll make him work harder for his yards. So I think you'll see him popping off for 400 yards and 4-5 TDs in fewer games.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- PASSING (Weeks 11-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pts |
| Philadelphia | 289 | 1.93 | 40.5 |
| Kansas City | 287 | 1.75 | 39.2 |
| Chicago | 281 | 1.78 | 38.8 |
| NY Giants | 280 | 1.76 | 38.5 |
| Dallas | 273 | 1.77 | 37.9 |
| Green Bay | 271 | 1.76 | 37.7 |
| Detroit | 263 | 1.71 | 36.5 |
| Buffalo | 256 | 1.72 | 36.0 |
| Washington | 266 | 1.55 | 35.9 |
| Baltimore | 259 | 1.61 | 35.6 |
| Oakland | 264 | 1.52 | 35.6 |
| Cincinnati | 259 | 1.61 | 35.5 |
| Tennessee | 250 | 1.75 | 35.5 |
| Houston | 255 | 1.63 | 35.4 |
| Minnesota | 260 | 1.53 | 35.2 |
| San Francisco | 250 | 1.63 | 34.8 |
| Miami | 255 | 1.54 | 34.7 |
| Seattle | 252 | 1.56 | 34.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 253 | 1.52 | 34.4 |
| NY Jets | 252 | 1.47 | 34.0 |
| Atlanta | 247 | 1.54 | 33.9 |
| New England | 247 | 1.52 | 33.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 250 | 1.47 | 33.8 |
| Carolina | 248 | 1.48 | 33.7 |
| San Diego | 253 | 1.39 | 33.7 |
| Cleveland | 240 | 1.49 | 32.9 |
| Arizona | 246 | 1.33 | 32.6 |
| Denver | 243 | 1.35 | 32.4 |
| Jacksonville | 228 | 1.57 | 32.2 |
| St. Louis | 237 | 1.39 | 32.0 |
| New Orleans | 235 | 1.29 | 31.3 |
| Indianapolis | 231 | 1.34 | 31.1 |
Next up, the same except subbing in rushing. Ranked the same way -- 10 points per rushing yard, and 6 for TDs.
In this one, the Texans, Browns and Cardinals are your top 3. None of these are powerhouse run teams, but they could be helped along by facing weak defenses. Houston still has a pair against Jacksonville. So like Ben Tate and Andre Ellington. And Willis McGahee, as crappy as he is, could have some nominal value in some of these remaining games.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- RUSHING (Weeks 11-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pts |
| Houston | 123 | 1.05 | 18.6 |
| Cleveland | 120 | .96 | 17.8 |
| Arizona | 119 | .95 | 17.6 |
| Green Bay | 118 | .92 | 17.4 |
| Buffalo | 119 | .81 | 16.7 |
| Philadelphia | 112 | .91 | 16.6 |
| NY Giants | 112 | .88 | 16.5 |
| Indianapolis | 115 | .83 | 16.5 |
| Dallas | 110 | .89 | 16.4 |
| Tennessee | 113 | .81 | 16.2 |
| Cincinnati | 114 | .80 | 16.2 |
| Chicago | 111 | .83 | 16.0 |
| Kansas City | 106 | .87 | 15.8 |
| Carolina | 113 | .73 | 15.7 |
| Baltimore | 111 | .77 | 15.7 |
| San Francisco | 112 | .75 | 15.7 |
| Seattle | 107 | .81 | 15.6 |
| Washington | 113 | .70 | 15.6 |
| Detroit | 111 | .73 | 15.5 |
| Oakland | 107 | .79 | 15.4 |
| Jacksonville | 110 | .71 | 15.3 |
| Denver | 115 | .62 | 15.2 |
| St. Louis | 110 | .70 | 15.2 |
| Atlanta | 108 | .71 | 15.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 109 | .66 | 14.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 104 | .71 | 14.6 |
| NY Jets | 105 | .66 | 14.5 |
| San Diego | 107 | .63 | 14.5 |
| Minnesota | 109 | .58 | 14.4 |
| New England | 103 | .63 | 14.1 |
| New Orleans | 104 | .58 | 13.9 |
| Miami | 102 | .58 | 13.7 |
--Ian Allan

