Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is the strategy of selecting running backs in the first round out of date? Do you play the matchups and bench Cam Newton? The best backup running backs. And keeper running backs for 2014.
Question 1
Kicker question, but first the background. I drafted Steven Hauschka and he did well until being limited by the Rams in week 8. I tried to get a little too cute and dropped him to get the highly rated (and done with bye week) Mason Crosby. Rodgers promptly got hurt and last week I ditched Crosby and added Nick Folk. I know he has kicked a lot of FG's this year, but after the Jets performance Sunday, do you really think he's the third best kicker the rest of the way? Bailey, Tucker, and Gould are all available and seem to be more reliable. Crosby is also out there and looks to have a pretty good remaining schedule if Rodgers comes back.
Bob Heaps (PORTAGE, MI)
Only one team has kicked more field goals than the Jets, while only one team has allowed more field goals than the Ravens. So by that measure, Nick Folk will be the 3rd-highest scoring kicker in the league this week. But to me, that’s just playing with numbers. I expect the Jets to go into Baltimore and get their butts kicked on Sunday, and I don’t like using kickers when I am confident their teams are going to lose. They will be like a 3-13 or 4-12 team this week, and if you look at the numbers over the last 25 years, almost never is there a high-scoring kicker on one of those kind of teams. I would prefer to see you go with Tucker or Crosby this week, and Gould would also be an upgrade.
Question 2
How do you project Alshon Jeffery long-term (beyond 2013)? Is he a top 10 WR in a keeper league? Would you rather have him or Keenan Allen?
Chris Thompson (LOS ANGELES, CA)
I think Jeffery is the real deal – a great, great player who’ll be around for a lot of years. And I like his coach, Marc Trestman. I see very little difference between Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. Marshall is 29, while Jeffery is 23. So I guess that means in a dynasty format, you take Jeffery before Marshall. Keenan Allen isn’t in Jeffery’s class (I think) but he’s in the mix as well – should be San Diego’s No. 1 receiver next year.
Question 3
Am I crazy to think about starting Case Keenum over Cam Newton this weekend? Can see it being a letdown game for Carolina and Keenum only has a few more chances to prove he's a starting QB in the NFL.
Drew Bankston (Tyler, TX)
I was going to say that yes, that would be crazy. Then I opened up the stat projection file to check the numbers, and I see that I actually have Keenum coming in ahead of Newton this week. So some explanation is required. On those initials rankings, I don’t spend too much time comparing specific players. I do not put Keenum in one hand and Newton in the other and say, “which one of these guys is better?” Instead, I carefully look at each matchup and project the numbers for each guy. The Texans are at home against Jacksonville – they should do this. The Panthers are on the road at Miami – they should do that. Forecast the points, passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Following that process, I have Keenum finishing with slightly more points than Newton. But Newton is definitely the better, more talented guy, and I may tweak the numbers before the final rankings out this afternoon, causing him to inch ahead in the rankings.
Question 4
I'm an injury away from being SOL at RB. In a standard scoring league who do you view as the top 5 backup running backs? I've just added Knile Davis and could potentially drop/add three more players if necessary.
Adam Bjork (SAVAGE, MN)
It’s getting late in the year to be waiting for a running back to get injured. Only about three weeks left in typical fantasy regular seasons. And only small number of fantasy leagues play into Week 17, so I will stay out of the game of trying to identify starters who might be rested in their final game – let’s leave that out of it. There’s really two classes of backup running backs, I think. There’s the guy who has some value as a change-of-pace guy, and then there’s the high-upside handcuff guys, who might be something special if the starter ahead of them gets hurt, arrested or suspended. And let’s leave out of the discussion players that are clearly on rosters in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. Double-check that Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings and Donald Brown are on rosters. On the off chance any of those guys are available, grab them. Setting those, I will go with the following as the top half-dozen backups you might have to use. That is, the following guys should be available in many leagues, and they has some residue value because of their ability to catch a few passes, run for 30-50 yards per game or punch in 1-yard touchdowns. Joique Bell, Montee Ball, Chris Ogbonnaya, Bernard Pierce, Brandon Jacobs (goal line), Shonn Greene (goal line). For the handcuff backs – players in the style of Knile Davis – I will offer up the following, which is a balance of the likelihood of the guy actually starting any games (that is, increase in value if the starter ahead of him is more likely to get injury) and factoring in whether the guy will be any good even if he is starting. On that list, I will go with, in approximate order: Joique Bell, Bernard Pierce, Chris Ogbonnaya, Jacquizz Rodgers, Brandon Jacobs, Bryce Brown, Montee Ball, Knile Davis, Toby Gerhart, Michael Bush, Kendall Hunter, Roy Helu Jr., Jonathan Dwyer, Shonn Greene, Jordan Todman. And to clarify, Ogbonnaya and Rodgers are not great running backs, but I think they’re more likely to play than most of those other guys (and they also both catch passes).
Question 5
Taking a look at this year’s draft I’m noticing an interesting trend and wanted to get your thoughts on it. We’re in a fairly traditional 12-team performance league with no PPR and no defenses and just 3 points for TDs. We have six very good teams and six pretty poor teams. Of the top six there were 3 RBs, 2 QBs, and a WR drafted in the first round. Of the worst performing six teams we had 5 of 6 draft RBs. With 8 RBs taken in the first round only Charles, Lynch, and McCoy are having first round worthy seasons. Meanwhile, Manning, Brees, and Calvin Johnson are having exceptional years. Do you think this is an anomaly or are RBs becoming a little risky to take in the first round? Also, is there anything with our devalued three point TDs that would lead you to shift top five QBs ahead of similarly rated RBs? Five of our top six teams have Manning, Brees, Stafford, Foles/Vick, and Wilson.
Brian Barrett (BOULDER, CO)
Running backs are high-risk. That’s a given. They get hurt, or they’re simply not as productive. It’s hard to match up with a great season. If you look at the top 50 running backs of this century, you’ll see that almost 80 percent (39 of 50) finished with fewer yards the next year, and over 75 percent (38 of 50) scored fewer touchdowns. I posted these numbers on Thursday at the website, and you can click back to the main page to review them. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, are getting safer. You’re not allowed to him then in the head or neck (or even close to the neck, as we saw in the Saints-49ers game), and you’re not allowed to hit them in the knee or below the knee. A few weeks back, there was considerable discussion whether Corey Liuget should be fined for sort-of hitting Peyton Manning kind-of near the knee or ankle. They’re making a big effort to keep these superstar quarterbacks healthy now. It’s almost like touch football. And I suppose that’s a good thing. Nobody wants to watch guys like Scott Tolzien and Kellen Clemens. So from that perspective, if it’s late August and you’re sure that a quarterback is going to have a great year, it makes sense to draft him. On the downside, what if the quarterback you settled on was Tom Brady? And you must factor in that in most years, there’s some unheralded, undervalued quarterbacks who put up really good numbers. Think Kaepernick, Wilson and Griffin last year. If you can get a franchise-type passer in the seventh round, that’s awfully tempting.
Question 6
I am looking for possible keeper candidates for next year. Which RBs that are starting now due to injuries will be starting studs next year for their current team or maybe someone else?
WYATT KLEIN (S MILWAUKEE, WI)
Ben Tate would fit that description. Montee Ball. Where will Donald Brown fit in for the Colts? He’s outplaying Trent Richardson. In Seattle, they’ve got Robert Turbin, who’s a talented backup, but they’ve also got Christine Michael, who’s even more talented and probably will be their backup on opening day next year. Marshawn Lynch is getting old and takes a lot of punishment, so there’s no way he’s starting 16 games next season. David Wilson should be on a roster. Maybe Marcus Lattimore of the 49ers.
Question 7
In a 14-team PPR and have secured a playoff berth. Our playoffs are a little old school and go from weeks 14-17. Which 2 WRs of these 4 do you like for the rest of the season? Aaron Dobson, Harry Douglas, DeAndre Hopkins, and Kendall Wright.
JOHN POWELL (AUSTIN, TX)
PPR format, so you can forget about Dobson. He’s a finisher. Maybe he outscores those other three guys, but you can’t count on him to catch 5 passes in a game. He’s No. 4, and Hopkins is kind of the same sort of guy. I’ve got Hopkins 3rd. It’s Wright or Douglas. Douglas has actually been outplaying Roddy White. But I like what Wright is doing in Tennessee. They’re definitely trying to get him the ball. He’s had at least 69 receiving yards six games in a row. He’s not a scorer, but you want to emphasize catches in that format, and he’s caught at least 5 passes in all but one of his last nine games. One vote for the Ken Doll.
Question 8
I need your feedback on this trade offer. Being offered Peyton Manning, Riley Cooper, Julius Thomas and the Chiefs D for Andrew Luck, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant and the Panthers D. I have Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith and Roddy White as other receivers. The other guy has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker so a potential counter offer my exist.
TIM ZEUCH (MASON, OH)
Both sides are offering a QB-WR-TE-D package, making it easier to compare the production. I am going to assume each guy is going to play exactly six games, just setting aside injuries and the possibility of guys sitting out in Week 17. Manning beats Luck by 20 points. Thomas losses to Graham by 11. Cooper losses to Bryant by 9 (and that’s after setting aside that Cooper isn’t even playing this week – you’d need a fill-in there). And Kansas City defense is within a point of Carolina, so that’s essentially a wash. So to me, it looks like a very even trade. Factoring in that Cooper has his bye this week, I guess I’d give the slight nod to Luck-Graham-Bryant-Carolina.
Question 9
we are not allowed to execute any transactions once the playoffs start, so i need to set my bench up in the best way possible. I have Peyton Manning as my QB and havent carried a backup for the year, but with the ankle injury i need insurance. My gut is telling me to go with Peyton’s backup (Brock Osweiler) instead of Tannehill or EJ Manuel (the only real starters available). What do you think of that strategy?
ERIC FEINGOLD (GARDEN CITY, NY)
I think I’ll go with Manuel. Osweiler didn’t show me too much in the preseason. No touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Not sure I would trust him to do too much if the Broncos decide to use him in Weeks 16-17 at Houston or at Oakland. If the Broncos decide to play starters for a half in one of those games, you’ll be screwed. Manuel can run around some. In Week 15, Manuel is at Jacksonville, which is a serviceable matchup. Then he’s at least at home in Week 16 againt Miami. I think I’d go Manuel – then cross my fingers and pray I don’t have to use him.
Question 10
Would you rather have FOLES OR RG3?
Jay Gelman (AMBLER, PA)
For a dynasty league, Griffin. For the rest of the year, give me Foles. He’s got the hot hand right now.