Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Why Percy Harvin might be the most overpriced, overhyped wide receiver in the league. What the heck is wrong with Ray Rice? Is Scott Tolzien worth a flyer? And when is the right time to execute the fabled Bill Gates special?
Question 1
What's wrong with Ray Rice? Blocking or the player himself? Also is Revis back to being in top form? In a related question what to do with Roddy White? How healthy is this guy?
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
Ray Rice says he’s healthy. I will take him at his word. I saw him burrow for extra yards on a couple of carries against Cincinnati. He looked fine on those plays. Their other tailback, Bernard Pierce, is averaging only 2.8 yards per attempt – he’s been just as bad as Rice. If Pierce was averaging 4.6, that would be a sign that Rice wasn’t holding up his end of the deal. So I think we’re looking at blocking and play-calling issues. The offensive line isn’t playing well enough, and sometimes they’re simply not being given the chance. They got the ball down at the goal line last week against the Bengals and went with the play-action flip to Dallas Clark. I would have liked to see them smash that one in, starting to create that physical, smash-mouth mentality they had in the second half of last year. Darrelle Revis seems to be rounding back into form. He’s held the last two receivers he’s faced, Golden Tate and Mike Wallace, under 30 yards. Tate has had at least 77 yards in his last three other games. As for White, I think he’s getting pretty much healthy, and he’ll benefit from Atlanta’s other pass-catching threats dealing with injuries (Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas). On the downside, White has got Revis this week.
Question 2
Will Scott Tolzien be the starter for Green Bay until Aaron Rodgers returns, and is he a good pickup?
MARK MICHAUD (PORTSMOUTH, NH)
Yes. It’s Tolzien – and that’s a quarterback, not a toothpaste. I have no interest in Tolzien this week (at the Meadowlands). But if he’s still their starter in Week 12, then we can start thinking about him as a plug-in option. Packers are at home that week against Minnesota, and that’s one of the very worst pass defenses in the league.
Question 3
Would you dump Harvin for Dobson? And you also dump Sproles for J Stewart.
gene koreman ii (SCHENECTADY, NY)
I’m not a big Harvin fan. I realize he’s got the big contract and all, but I have very little confidence he’ll even be the best receiver on his own team. Golden Tate is playing well, and he’s been working with Russell Wilson all year, building some chemistry. How much better is Harvin going to be than Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse? Those guys can play, and I don’t think they’re going to send them to the bench now. I just don’t see it with Harvin – not this year, anyway. Seems like he should be a slot-type receiver on a team that’s passing a lot – where they can get the ball in his hands a half dozen times per game. I realize he’s got the mega-contract, but I don’t believe he’s one of the top 10 receivers (on talent) in the league. Fitzgerald, Julio, Marshall, A.J. Green, Dez, Calvin, Jordy, Andre, Demaryius, Cruz, V-Jax. I think all of those guys come in ahead of Harvin with essentially no discussion. Then you can start debating whether there’s another 10 who are better than him as well. I think Tate will be the best receiver on the Seattle team in the final seven weeks. Now, where we’re we again? Yes, Dobson. He’s starting now for New England; he’s moved ahead of Thompkins. So I will take Dobson before Harvin in a fantasy league. As for Sproles-Stewart, I don’t think anybody in America in any scoring system would take Stewart before Sproles.
Question 4
I need the best option for week 12 bye week starter from: Pryor, Geno, Ponder, Manuel, Glennon, McCown, Campbell. Finally, is Crabtree worth stashing if I can spare a spot on my bench?
Eric Goetz (SEATTLE, WA)
If Week 12 rolls around and Josh McCown is still the guy in Chicago, then he’s your starter. If the Bears go back to Jay Cutler, well … you ever hear the story about how Bill Gates and Paul Allen played chess at Lakeside? As legend has it, whenever he was losing, Gates would ‘inadvertently’ bump the board, knocking all the pieces out of place. The game would have to be abandoned. If Week 12 rolls around and McCown isn’t available, you may want to start looking into Gates-like strategies. As for Crabtree, he should be back in a week or two. I think they’ll give him a chance to maybe spark them. The 49ers haven’t had much success with the pass, and Crabtree was very good in the second half of last year – a top-10 receiver after Kaepernick took over at quarterback.
Question 5
I am looking to trade a young wr for next year with a huge upside. I am in a PPR league where we keep 10 players. My RBs are T.Richardson, the NO backs, Spiller, Andre Brown, Rice, Vereen, Ridley. My 3 WRs worth keeping are P Garcon, J Gordon & C Shorts. I am currently in trade discussions with another team owner who currently has V Cruz, E Decker, M Crabtree & A Jeffery. So of my rb's, who would you be most likely to give up and of those wr's I listed above, who would you trade for.
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
Cruz is certainly a big-time player. He’s proven. And I like Alshon Jeffery. I don’t see much difference between Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. Same kind of size and ability. Marshall is more experienced. Jeffery is younger, has less off-field baggage and a little more speed. They’ve got Marc Trestman coaching there, and that’s a huge plus. Maybe you could reel him in? But Crabtree or Cruz would be fine as well. As for running backs, this is a PPR format, so I would like to see you unload Stevan Ridley. Nice runner, but they don’t use him at all in the passing game. In your format, Vereen will be a lot better than Ridley going forward – Vereen is the Sproles-type guy in that offense. As fas as what it takes to land these receivers (and how many you want or need), that’s probably easier for you to answer. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are old, and Mark Ingram ain’t much of a player, so can we move those guys? Ray Rice has played his best ball. Would be nice to move him, but not sure anybody’s giving you as much as you’d like. I don’t consider Richardson or Spiller to be untouchable. Your best running back (given the format) I believe is Vereen. You have just two good wide receivers (Cecil Shorts III is a nice player, but he isn’t going to be a top-20 guy next year), and one of those guys (Gordon) has flunked multiple drug tests and doesn’t really fit the PPR format – he’s more of a big-play guy, rather than a player who’ll catch 80-90 passes.
Question 6
Sit pat or make one last deal? 6pt TD pass, half point ppr starting 2 of each RB/WR and a flex, with Wilson, Flacco, Fitzpatrick, AP, Gio, Andre Brown, Vereen, B.tate, Dez, Amendola, Antonio Brown and Julius T. AP and Wilson have some ugly playoff weeks starting with 14. I've just about locked a playoff birth. Available guys include Brady, AJ Green, maybe Gronk Payton and Charles, if I'm willing to overpay a little. Go get one of these guys for the playoffs? Or just use the Index Weekly and play the matchups those weeks? Thanks Ian.
Russell Ditnes (JAMISON, PA)
You have some depth. You have nine viable options each week to fill those five RB/WR/TE spots. All of those guys, in my opinion, are candidates to start games. Don’t disregard Ben Tate; he’s going to face a lot of lesser defenses. And Shane Vereen needs to be part of the thinking. He will catch a lot of passes, so don’t lock in on just his rushing production. He might average 40-plus receiving yards in these final seven games, with maybe 3 TDs. At the same time, keep in mind that you have enough depth that it’s an option to look into trades where you sacrifice some depth to bring in some real difference makers. Peyton Manning seems to throw 3-4 TDs every week, and he’s averaging 361 passing yards. That’s a big upgrade over the likes of Flacco, Wilson and Fitzpatrick. If you stand pat with that group, you’ll be using Flacco in Week 14, at home against Minnesota. The Vikings have a weak pass defense, but the most you’ll be able to bank on getting out of Flacco in that game would be about 260 yards and 2 TDs. Manning’s at home that week against the Titans. Tennessee is pretty good against the pass, but I thin you’re looking at an upgrade of at least 50 yards and a touchdown.
Question 7
I have to keep either San Diego WR V Brown or NY Jets WR S Hill for the duration of the season barring injury. Which would be the lesser of two evils? We give double points for 50-yard TDs and 2 points for 100-plus yds in a week. I thought one of these players would have broke out this year, but both have been duds.
Paul Bakalars (LA CRESCENT, MN)
I don’t see either of those guys doing anything. Sorry. For the year, Hill has 330 yards and 1 TD. Brown has 317 yards and 1 TD. Hill has a lot more ability to get downfield – an outside chance he catches 60-yard touchdown at some point. Brown in the past showed some ability of being a pretty good receiver (he had that one big game against Oakland on a Thursday night in 2011).
Question 8
Would you trade Ben Tate and Zac Stacy for Reggie Bush and Pierre Garcon? I'm in an 8-team dynasty league and I think Bush and Garcon will help me in the playoffs this year, but am would I be trading away too much future potential for an oft injured RB and a replaceable WR?
MARIO RUSSO (BRICK, NJ)
I wouldn’t worry too much about the dynasty implications. I mean, Tate and Stacy – these aren’t guys who are going to be going to Pro Bowls in 2015 and 2016. Are they even going to be starters? We’ll see. I think you focus more on the here and now. And I’m not saying that means you do the deal? What’s the scoring system? If it’s PPR, Bush and Garcon are both grabbing a lot of passes, and they look really good. If it’s a TD-driven format, then they’re pretty margin. Stacy has the hot hand right now. You’d have to be nervous about giving him away, but he’s got a bye this week and three games left against really good run defenses. With Tate, keep in mind that he’s trying to put together a nice little contract drive, and he’s got a very favorable schedule. They’ll play Oakland this week, then the next four opponents all have problems stopping the run – Jaguars (twice), Patriots and Colts.