We've been banging the drum about the upcoming schedule of New Orleans. Three of the next four are against the Seahawks and Panthers. But how does that translate for fantasy purposes? Ian Allan explores.
Turns out, it makes a pretty sizeable difference.
Look at the charts below, which show the total yards and touchdowns allowed by each team's next four opponents.
For rushing, the Bengals and Cowboys project to play the easiest schedules in Weeks 13-16. (I'm leaving Week 17 out on this one; I think most fantasy leagues are done by then.). New Orleans is down at the bottom. You're looking at about 29 percent less production, using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
Other teams with tough upcoming run schedules: Rams, Chargers, Seahawks.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Rushing (Weeks 13-16) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Pct |
| Cincinnati | 5,245 | 44 | 100% |
| Dallas | 5,185 | 45 | 100% |
| Cleveland | 5,399 | 40 | 99% |
| Houston | 5,425 | 39 | 98% |
| Buffalo | 5,374 | 39 | 98% |
| Chicago | 5,161 | 40 | 96% |
| Green Bay | 5,175 | 37 | 94% |
| Denver | 5,086 | 38 | 93% |
| Arizona | 5,019 | 38 | 93% |
| Baltimore | 5,131 | 36 | 92% |
| Kansas City | 4,740 | 41 | 91% |
| Washington | 5,268 | 32 | 91% |
| Atlanta | 4,938 | 37 | 91% |
| Jacksonville | 4,951 | 36 | 90% |
| Tennessee | 4,782 | 38 | 90% |
| Indianapolis | 4,970 | 33 | 88% |
| Philadelphia | 4,780 | 36 | 88% |
| San Francisco | 5,005 | 29 | 85% |
| Minnesota | 5,147 | 26 | 85% |
| Oakland | 4,786 | 32 | 85% |
| NY Giants | 4,664 | 33 | 84% |
| Miami | 4,950 | 28 | 84% |
| New England | 4,870 | 29 | 84% |
| Pittsburgh | 4,883 | 25 | 81% |
| Tampa Bay | 4,564 | 28 | 79% |
| Detroit | 4,785 | 24 | 79% |
| NY Jets | 4,424 | 30 | 79% |
| Carolina | 4,379 | 29 | 78% |
| Seattle | 4,349 | 29 | 77% |
| San Diego | 4,344 | 28 | 76% |
| St. Louis | 4,378 | 27 | 76% |
| New Orleans | 4,251 | 22 | 71% |
It's similar for passing, which I've calculated the same way. In this one, Chicago, Kansas City and Green Bay have the most favorable schedules. And this includes the game today. Teams who's schedules look over 20 percent more difficult include the Saints, Colts, Seahawks and Jaguars.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Passing (Weeks 13-16) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Pct |
| Chicago | 12,638 | 81 | 100% |
| Kansas City | 12,261 | 80 | 97% |
| Green Bay | 12,201 | 79 | 97% |
| Oakland | 12,496 | 73 | 96% |
| Philadelphia | 11,954 | 80 | 96% |
| Washington | 11,985 | 74 | 94% |
| Dallas | 11,732 | 78 | 94% |
| Baltimore | 11,707 | 76 | 93% |
| Tennessee | 11,686 | 76 | 93% |
| NY Giants | 11,791 | 73 | 92% |
| Cincinnati | 11,829 | 71 | 92% |
| Houston | 11,512 | 75 | 91% |
| Buffalo | 11,377 | 77 | 91% |
| San Diego | 11,667 | 72 | 91% |
| Detroit | 11,802 | 69 | 91% |
| Atlanta | 11,276 | 74 | 90% |
| Cleveland | 11,044 | 74 | 88% |
| San Francisco | 10,945 | 74 | 88% |
| Miami | 10,960 | 73 | 88% |
| Minnesota | 11,409 | 64 | 87% |
| Pittsburgh | 10,943 | 62 | 84% |
| NY Jets | 10,885 | 60 | 83% |
| Carolina | 10,636 | 64 | 83% |
| Arizona | 11,147 | 54 | 82% |
| St. Louis | 10,594 | 63 | 82% |
| Tampa Bay | 10,799 | 59 | 82% |
| Denver | 10,685 | 57 | 81% |
| New England | 10,017 | 65 | 80% |
| Seattle | 10,457 | 57 | 79% |
| Jacksonville | 9,815 | 66 | 79% |
| New Orleans | 10,366 | 47 | 75% |
| Indianapolis | 9,992 | 53 | 75% |
Enjoy the games today. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, from the team at Fantasy Football Index.
--Ian Allan
