You like Adrian Peterson? What if you found out Minnesota will play the hardest run-defense schedule in the league the rest of the way. Ian Allan looks at the numbers.
We're in the end game now, paying less attention at overall talent and ability and looking more at who's playing who.
Here are are stat charts to consider. I've done rushing and passing stats, and I've done them in blocks of three and four weeks. (Many leagues end in Week 16, so I've got it going both ways.)
On all of these charts, you're looking at yards per game, TDs per game, and then fantasy points per game, using the scoring system of 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
For overall passing stats, looks like Philadelphia, Oakland and Chicago have the easiest schedules, while Arizona, Jacksonville and the Jets have the hardest schedules (as if those teams aren't bad enough as is). Also see New Orleans down there.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 14-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yds/G | TD/G | Pts/G |
| Philadelphia | 284 | 1.79 | 39.2 |
| Oakland | 283 | 1.71 | 38.6 |
| Chicago | 278 | 1.77 | 38.4 |
| Dallas | 277 | 1.71 | 38.0 |
| Detroit | 277 | 1.71 | 37.9 |
| Washington | 272 | 1.69 | 37.3 |
| San Diego | 272 | 1.67 | 37.2 |
| Kansas City | 271 | 1.69 | 37.2 |
| Tennessee | 256 | 1.83 | 36.6 |
| Baltimore | 264 | 1.67 | 36.4 |
| Minnesota | 268 | 1.56 | 36.2 |
| Green Bay | 264 | 1.60 | 36.0 |
| NY Giants | 260 | 1.58 | 35.5 |
| Cincinnati | 258 | 1.58 | 35.3 |
| Miami | 253 | 1.60 | 34.9 |
| Buffalo | 252 | 1.60 | 34.9 |
| Houston | 260 | 1.48 | 34.9 |
| San Francisco | 244 | 1.73 | 34.7 |
| Carolina | 247 | 1.54 | 34.0 |
| Cleveland | 250 | 1.48 | 33.9 |
| Indianapolis | 242 | 1.58 | 33.7 |
| New England | 242 | 1.56 | 33.6 |
| Atlanta | 252 | 1.38 | 33.4 |
| Seattle | 248 | 1.44 | 33.4 |
| Denver | 247 | 1.44 | 33.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 241 | 1.46 | 32.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 244 | 1.40 | 32.8 |
| St. Louis | 235 | 1.52 | 32.6 |
| New Orleans | 249 | 1.25 | 32.4 |
| NY Jets | 242 | 1.33 | 32.2 |
| Jacksonville | 233 | 1.42 | 31.8 |
| Arizona | 229 | 1.06 | 29.3 |
For passing, when you leave out Week 17, Washington and Tennessee move to the top. Note that Denver and New Orleans are in the bottom 4.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 14-16) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yds/G | TD/G | Pts/G |
| Washington | 281 | 1.78 | 38.8 |
| Tennessee | 274 | 1.89 | 38.7 |
| Chicago | 282 | 1.75 | 38.7 |
| Baltimore | 274 | 1.81 | 38.3 |
| Philadelphia | 275 | 1.78 | 38.2 |
| San Diego | 273 | 1.72 | 37.6 |
| Houston | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
| Oakland | 276 | 1.64 | 37.5 |
| Green Bay | 270 | 1.67 | 37.0 |
| Kansas City | 266 | 1.72 | 36.9 |
| Dallas | 265 | 1.72 | 36.8 |
| Detroit | 269 | 1.56 | 36.2 |
| Cincinnati | 261 | 1.58 | 35.6 |
| Minnesota | 265 | 1.50 | 35.5 |
| Buffalo | 255 | 1.64 | 35.3 |
| Atlanta | 258 | 1.58 | 35.3 |
| Cleveland | 254 | 1.58 | 34.9 |
| St. Louis | 248 | 1.67 | 34.8 |
| NY Giants | 253 | 1.47 | 34.2 |
| San Francisco | 240 | 1.69 | 34.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 250 | 1.47 | 33.8 |
| Miami | 246 | 1.53 | 33.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 247 | 1.36 | 32.9 |
| NY Jets | 242 | 1.44 | 32.8 |
| Seattle | 241 | 1.42 | 32.6 |
| Carolina | 242 | 1.39 | 32.5 |
| Indianapolis | 235 | 1.47 | 32.4 |
| New England | 237 | 1.44 | 32.4 |
| Denver | 239 | 1.31 | 31.7 |
| Jacksonville | 229 | 1.42 | 31.4 |
| New Orleans | 244 | 1.00 | 30.4 |
| Arizona | 231 | 1.08 | 29.6 |
For rushing, Green Bay and Dallas are the teams with the really friendly schedules (thank you, Chicago Bears run D). The Vikings, Saints and Rams are playing the tough run defenses.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 14-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yds/G | TD/G | Pts/G |
| Green Bay | 133 | 1.08 | 19.8 |
| Dallas | 126 | 1.04 | 18.9 |
| Houston | 118 | 1.10 | 18.4 |
| Philadelphia | 121 | .96 | 17.9 |
| Buffalo | 124 | .88 | 17.7 |
| Cleveland | 121 | .90 | 17.5 |
| Jacksonville | 120 | .90 | 17.4 |
| Kansas City | 114 | .98 | 17.3 |
| Denver | 112 | .96 | 17.0 |
| Washington | 121 | .79 | 16.8 |
| Chicago | 117 | .83 | 16.7 |
| Cincinnati | 116 | .79 | 16.4 |
| Indianapolis | 116 | .75 | 16.1 |
| Arizona | 108 | .88 | 16.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 112 | .79 | 15.9 |
| Tennessee | 107 | .85 | 15.9 |
| Miami | 113 | .73 | 15.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 112 | .73 | 15.6 |
| Atlanta | 105 | .83 | 15.5 |
| Carolina | 110 | .73 | 15.3 |
| Baltimore | 111 | .65 | 15.0 |
| San Diego | 106 | .73 | 14.9 |
| NY Giants | 104 | .75 | 14.9 |
| Detroit | 110 | .63 | 14.7 |
| New England | 111 | .60 | 14.7 |
| Oakland | 103 | .69 | 14.4 |
| NY Jets | 101 | .69 | 14.2 |
| Seattle | 100 | .71 | 14.2 |
| San Francisco | 108 | .52 | 13.9 |
| St. Louis | 102 | .48 | 13.1 |
| New Orleans | 94 | .52 | 12.5 |
| Minnesota | 100 | .38 | 12.2 |
If leaving out Week 17, then Cincinnati joins list of easiest run schedules. Jets and Seahawks are down near the bottom.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 14-16) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yds/G | TD/G | Pts/G |
| Dallas | 130 | 1.19 | 20.1 |
| Green Bay | 126 | 1.03 | 18.7 |
| Cincinnati | 122 | 1.00 | 18.2 |
| Houston | 120 | 1.03 | 18.1 |
| Washington | 127 | .83 | 17.7 |
| Denver | 116 | 1.00 | 17.6 |
| Kansas City | 113 | 1.03 | 17.5 |
| Atlanta | 113 | 1.03 | 17.5 |
| Buffalo | 120 | .92 | 17.5 |
| Philadelphia | 119 | .92 | 17.4 |
| Miami | 125 | .81 | 17.3 |
| Cleveland | 123 | .83 | 17.3 |
| Jacksonville | 117 | .92 | 17.2 |
| Arizona | 110 | .92 | 16.5 |
| Chicago | 114 | .81 | 16.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 112 | .81 | 16.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 116 | .72 | 16.0 |
| Baltimore | 114 | .75 | 15.9 |
| Tennessee | 105 | .86 | 15.6 |
| San Francisco | 116 | .58 | 15.1 |
| San Diego | 102 | .81 | 15.0 |
| Indianapolis | 112 | .56 | 14.5 |
| New England | 107 | .61 | 14.4 |
| Carolina | 101 | .67 | 14.1 |
| Oakland | 104 | .61 | 14.0 |
| Detroit | 106 | .47 | 13.4 |
| NY Giants | 102 | .53 | 13.4 |
| St. Louis | 101 | .53 | 13.3 |
| Seattle | 97 | .58 | 13.2 |
| NY Jets | 94 | .61 | 13.1 |
| Minnesota | 106 | .36 | 12.7 |
| New Orleans | 90 | .53 | 12.2 |
--Ian Allan

