Pull up a chair, kids. We'll go through the remaining games and see if we can figure this thing out. Looks like Saints and Cowboys will claim the two remaining divisions that are up for grabs.
That's what I get, anyway, when look at the remaining 64 regular season games.
Seattle and winner of the NFC South (New Orleans or Carolina); those are the bye teams. The Saints have a tiebreaker advantage, which is huge between those teams. If they split their upcoming games and both win their other two, it will be New Orleans.
(An edge in those other games, however, to the Panthers. No way are they losing to the Jets or Falcons, but the Saints could conceivably lose at St. Louis or drop their Week 17 game against the Bucs.)
On the AFC side, Broncos and Patriots get the byes. Cincinnati and Indianapolis are the other division winners. Note that if the Bengals beat Indianapolis this week, then we can pretty much pencil in the Colts as the No. 4 seed and Kansas City as the first wild card. That makes the Week 16 meeting between those teams at Arrowhead kind of a throwaway game, with neither team wanting to show much.
According to my estimates, the final AFC wild-card team will go 8-8. Baltimore is the surest team to get to 8-8, but it could be joined by up to three others -- Pittsburgh, San Diego and Tennessee, setting off a tiebreaking mess. Pittsburgh likely would win an AFC North tiebreaker against Baltimore, because of the Ravens' loss at Cleveland earlier in the year. Tennessee beat both San Diego and Pittsburgh in head-to-head games. It's messy.
On the NFC side, Detroit and Dallas are the other division winners, with Carolina and San Francisco getting the wild cards.
If my math is right, three NFC teams will finish with winning records but miss the postseason -- Philly, Arizona and Green Bay.
| PROJECTED WINS -- DECIMALS | |
|---|---|
| Team | Wins |
| Seattle | 13.80 |
| Denver | 13.50 |
| New England | 12.10 |
| Carolina | 11.95 |
| New Orleans | 11.40 |
| Kansas City | 11.15 |
| San Francisco | 10.70 |
| Indianapolis | 10.55 |
| Cincinnati | 10.50 |
| Detroit | 9.75 |
| Philadelphia | 9.35 |
| Dallas | 9.15 |
| Arizona | 8.85 |
| Baltimore | 8.25 |
| Chicago | 8.00 |
| Miami | 7.90 |
| Green Bay | 7.85 |
| Pittsburgh | 7.15 |
| Tennessee | 7.10 |
| San Diego | 6.95 |
| NY Giants | 6.60 |
| NY Jets | 6.35 |
| St. Louis | 6.20 |
| Buffalo | 5.60 |
| Oakland | 5.20 |
| Cleveland | 5.15 |
| Washington | 4.60 |
| Jacksonville | 4.55 |
| Tampa Bay | 4.50 |
| Minnesota | 4.20 |
| Atlanta | 4.10 |
| Houston | 3.00 |
Here's the version where I simply have to call a winner and a loser in each game (so a 55% win is the same as a 95% win).
| PROJECTED WINS -- BINARY VERSION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T |
| Denver | 14 | 2 | 0 |
| Seattle | 14 | 2 | 0 |
| New Orleans | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| Carolina | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| New England | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| Kansas City | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| Dallas | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Detroit | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Indianapolis | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Arizona | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Baltimore | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Chicago | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| San Diego | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Miami | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| NY Giants | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| St. Louis | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jacksonville | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Oakland | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Washington | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Houston | 2 | 14 | 0 |
GAME-BY-GAME WIN PROBABILITIES
Week 14
St. Louis 20% at Arizona 80%
Minnesota 10% at Baltimore 90%
Dallas 45% at Chicago 55%
Indianapolis 40% at Cincinnati 60%
Tennessee 10% at Denver 90%
Atlanta 35% at Green Bay 65%
Houston 45% at Jacksonville 55%
Cleveland 5% at New England 95%
Carolina 45% at New Orleans 55%
Oakland 45% at NY Jets 55%
Detroit 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Miami 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
NY Giants 40% at San Diego 60%
Seattle 45% at San Francisco 55%
Buffalo 40% at Tampa Bay 60%
Kansas City 45% at Washington 55%
Week 15
Washington 40% at Atlanta 60%
NY Jets 5% at Carolina 95%
Chicago 65% at Cleveland 35%
Green Bay 45% at Dallas 55%
San Diego 10% at Denver 90%
Baltimore 35% at Detroit 65%
Houston 20% at Indianapolis 80%
Buffalo 55% at Jacksonville 45%
New England 75% at Miami 25%
Philadelphia 75% at Minnesota 25%
Seattle 65% at NY Giants 35%
Kansas City 70% at Oakland 30%
Cincinnati 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
New Orleans 70% at St. Louis 30%
San Francisco 75% at Tampa Bay 25%
Arizona 35% at Tennessee 65%
Week 16
New England 45% at Baltimore 55%
Miami 40% at Buffalo 60%
New Orleans 35% at Carolina 65%
Minnesota 10% at Cincinnati 90%
NY Giants 10% at Detroit 90%
Pittsburgh 35% at Green Bay 65%
Denver 85% at Houston 15%
Tennessee 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Indianapolis 45% at Kansas City 55%
Cleveland 45% at NY Jets 55%
Chicago 40% at Philadelphia 60%
Oakland 30% at San Diego 70%
Atlanta 5% at San Francisco 95%
Arizona 15% at Seattle 85%
Tampa Bay 45% at St. Louis 55%
Dallas 60% at Washington 40%
Week 17
San Francisco 45% at Arizona 55%
Carolina 90% at Atlanta 10%
Green Bay 60% at Chicago 40%
Baltimore 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Philadelphia 45% at Dallas 55%
Jacksonville 10% at Indianapolis 90%
NY Jets 20% at Miami 80%
Detroit 75% at Minnesota 25%
Buffalo 5% at New England 95%
Tampa Bay 20% at New Orleans 80%
Washington 25% at NY Giants 75%
Denver 85% at Oakland 15%
Cleveland 30% at Pittsburgh 70%
Kansas City 45% at San Diego 55%
St. Louis 15% at Seattle 85%
Houston 20% at Tennessee 80%