Factoid

December 11, 2013

Runners on the rampage

Big games come late in the year

LeSean McCoy runs for 217 yards against the Lions, and we shouldn't be surprised. It's late in the year when you tend to see the really big running games. And the later the better.

The most popular week to go over 200 yards, for example, is Week 17. It's happened 13 times in the last 20 years. The next most popular weeks? Week 14 and Week 15, with a combined 15.

In the same 20-year span, there are only five weeks that there have been fewer than four 200-yard rushers, and all but one of them came in the first six weeks of the season.

What's going on here?

I have three theories.

Teams mailing it in You get the teams that are playing with one eye on the moving vans. Teams that have been eliminated from playing consideration and are simply going through the motions. Maybe even experimenting with young players, given that each loss just gives them a better draft choice. Also potentially teams resting players for the postseason. These kind of teams tend to show up late in the year, especially in December.

Time to build chemistry Offensive lines have to work together, and running backs need to learn how to hit holes at the right time. I heard Seattle's offensive line coach, Tom Cable, talking about this a few years back. The Seahawks typically starts slow, then the ground game clicks in in October. The Patriots are another team that always tend to run the ball better late in the year.

Weather We like to bitch about adverse weather, but for some plays, I think it really helps the offense. Defenders -- some defenders -- have problems staying on their feet, not knowing where the opponent is going to go. Think of the 55-yard run by Daniel Thomas at Pittsburgh, with the Steelers secondary falling all over the field. Think of the long touchdowns by Cordarrelle Patterson and Jacoby Jones in the Vikings-Ravens game. Those kind of touchdowns wouldn't have occurred had that game been played in September.

Whatever the reason, the stats have spoken. The big running games are more likely to occur late in the year.

RUNNING BACKS OVER 200 YARDS, 1992-2012
Year	Week	Running Back	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg	TD
2010	1	Arian Foster, HOU	v. IND	33	231	7.0	3
2008	1	Michael Turner, ATL	v. DET	22	220	10.0	2
2000	1	Duce Staley, PHI	at DAL	26	201	7.7	1
1997	1	Eddie George, TEN	v. OAK	35	216	6.2	1
2009	2	Frank Gore, SF	v. SEA	16	207	12.9	2
2007	2	Jamal Lewis, CLE	v. CIN	27	216	8.0	1
2003	2	Jamal Lewis, BAL	v. CLE	30	295	9.8	2
2012	3	Jamaal Charles, KC	at NO	33	233	7.1	1
2011	4	Matt Forte, CHI	v. CAR	25	205	8.2	1
2002	4	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	v. NE	27	217	8.0	2
2000	4	Charlie Garner, SF	at DAL	36	201	5.6	1
1997	4	Terrell Davis, DEN	v. CIN	27	215	8.0	1
1996	4	LeShon Johnson, ARI	at NO	21	214	10.2	2
2012	5	Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG	v. CLE	30	200	6.7	1
2009	6	Thomas Jones, NYJ	v. BUF	22	210	9.5	1
2007	6	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at CHI	20	224	11.2	3
1998	6	Terrell Davis, DEN	at SEA	30	208	6.9	1
2011	7	DeMarco Murray, DAL	v. STL	25	253	10.1	1
2003	7	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	at CLE	26	200	7.7	1
2000	7	Edgerrin James, IND	at SEA	38	219	5.8	3
2000	7	Marshall Faulk, STL	v. ATL	25	208	8.3	1
1997	7	Barry Sanders, DET	at TB	24	215	9.0	2
2009	8	Chris Johnson, TEN	v. JAC	24	228	9.5	2
2005	8	Tiki Barber, NYG	v. WAS	24	206	8.6	1
2000	8	Corey Dillon, CIN	v. DEN	22	278	12.6	2
1997	8	Napoleon Kaufman, OAK	v. DEN	28	227	8.1	1
2012	9	Doug Martin, TB	at OAK	25	251	10.0	4
2007	9	Adrian Peterson, MIN	v. SD	30	296	9.9	3
2001	9	Shaun Alexander, SEA	v. OAK	35	266	7.6	3
1997	9	Terrell Davis, DEN	at BUF	42	207	4.9	1
1993	9	Emmitt Smith, DAL	at PHI	30	237	7.9	1
2006	10	Willie Parker, PIT	v. NO	22	213	9.7	2
2006	11	Frank Gore, SF	v. SEA	24	212	8.8	0
2005	11	Larry Johnson, KC	at HOU	36	211	5.9	2
2004	11	Edgerrin James, IND	at CHI	23	204	8.9	1
1994	11	Barry Sanders, DET	v. TB	26	237	9.1	0
2011	12	Beanie Wells, ARI	at STL	27	228	8.4	1
2006	12	Shaun Alexander, SEA	v. GB	40	201	5.0	0
2004	12	Rudi Johnson, CIN	v. CLE	26	202	7.8	2
2000	12	Fred Taylor, JAC	at PIT	30	234	7.8	3
1998	12	Priest Holmes, BAL	at CIN	36	227	6.3	1
2012	13	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at GB	21	210	10.0	1
2011	13	Ray Rice, BAL	at CLE	29	204	7.0	1
2002	13	Ricky Williams, MIA	at BUF	27	228	8.4	2
2002	13	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	v. DEN	37	220	5.9	3
1997	13	Barry Sanders, DET	v. IND	24	216	9.0	2
2013	14	LeSean McCoy, PHI	v. DET	29	217	7.5	2
2006	14	Willie Parker, PIT	v. CLE	32	223	7.0	1
2003	14	Clinton Portis, DEN	v. KC	22	218	9.9	5
2002	14	Ricky Williams, MIA	v. CHI	31	216	7.0	2
2000	14	Mike Anderson, DEN	at NO	37	251	6.8	4
2000	14	Corey Dillon, CIN	v. ARI	35	216	6.2	1
2000	14	Curtis Martin, NYJ	v. IND	30	203	6.8	1
2000	14	Warrick Dunn, TB	v. DAL	22	210	9.5	2
2012	15	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at STL	24	212	8.8	1
2011	15	Reggie Bush, MIA	at BUF	25	203	8.1	1
2009	15	Jerome Harrison, CLE	at KC	34	286	8.4	3
2005	15	Tiki Barber, NYG	v. KC	29	220	7.6	2
2001	15	Marshall Faulk, STL	at CAR	30	202	6.7	2
1997	15	Corey Dillon, CIN	v. TEN	39	246	6.3	4
1993	15	Jerome Bettis, RAM	at NO	28	212	7.6	1
2012	16	Jamaal Charles, KC	v. IND	22	226	10.3	1
2009	16	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	at NYG	28	206	7.4	1
2008	16	Derrick Ward, NYG	v. CAR	15	215	14.3	0
2003	16	Jamal Lewis, BAL	at CLE	22	205	9.3	2
2012	17	DeAngelo Williams, CAR	at NO	21	210	10.0	2
2012	17	Alfred Morris, WAS	v. DAL	33	200	6.1	3
2009	17	Jamaal Charles, KC	at DEN	25	259	10.4	2
2009	17	Fred Jackson, BUF	v. IND	33	212	6.4	0
2008	17	Michael Turner, ATL	v. STL	25	208	8.3	1
2006	17	Tiki Barber, NYG	at WAS	23	234	10.2	3
2005	17	Tiki Barber, NYG	at OAK	28	203	7.3	1
2005	17	Larry Johnson, KC	v. CIN	26	201	7.7	3
2003	17	Ahman Green, GB	v. DEN	20	218	10.9	2
2003	17	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	v. OAK	31	243	7.8	2
2002	17	Clinton Portis, DEN	v. ARI	24	228	9.5	2
2002	17	Tiki Barber, NYG	v. PHI	32	203	6.3	0
2000	17	Marshall Faulk, STL	at NO	32	220	6.9	2

--Ian Allan

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