Luke Wilson answers yet more of your fantasy football questions. Roster musical chairs in keeper leagues, a strategy discussion on batting out of the back end of the first round in redraft, divining Rome Odunze's near-term outlook, and so much more in this jumbo-sized edition.
Question 1
Last year, in the middle of the season, Odunze was considered a top 5 receiver for the rest of the year. Will he get back to that level or is he middle of the pack?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
It's too early to call it yet, but early polling has the Odunze vs. Burden question running as one of the very hottest 'team offense share' debates this fantasy cycle. And for good reason: Like Emeka Egbuka, last September Rome Odunze bolted out of the gate with a big September, scoring 5 TDs as one of the very top performers at the one quarter mark. Also like Egbuka, after a strong Week 10 he pretty much closed up shop for the rest of the regular season (he rebounded with a couple of 44-yard performances in the playoffs). And yet Egbuka is generating quite a bit more of a buzz around the fantasy landscape. Why?
For one, context. While Odunze's blistering start last season was definitely impressive and worth remembering, it did happen during v1.0 of a Ben Johnson's scheme that is sure to have new wrinkles and permutations. Yes, the offense had that whole summer of 2025 to get acclimated, but this was a unit breaking in three rookies that would ultimately become heavily involved (Loveland, Burden and Monangai). With Burden running as the team's No. 4 receiver behind Olamide Zaccheaus the first half and veteran DJ Moore on the dreaded 'sacrificial X' duty, somebody had to see the money work. But Odunze's midseason foot injury threw open the door for Burden to step up down the stretch, and the 21-year-old did just that. We care about rookie receivers putting up strong numbers/efficiency down the stretch, especially when they were big time players in college. Also giving a young offense some much-needed identity with his highly confident and rivalry-conscious persona, Burden looks to me like he's here to stay.
This hardly disqualifies Odunze from relevance; in fact, our initial PPR rankings contain four pairs of teammates in the top 24 WRs. But those WRs belong to offenses helmed by quarterbacks with a combined five 4500-yard campaigns over the last two seasons. And you may have heard a bit of lore about Chicago quarterbacks and the 4,000-yard glass ceiling a time or three. Make no mistake: Caleb Williams has the best shot at putting that one to bed since Smokin' Jay Cutler. But that sacrificial DJ Moore role is now vacant, and I don't see Burden running a lot of cardio routes. Odunze will exceed Moore's ghastly 682 yards even if he winds up the de facto replacement — but I'm leaning toward him coming in under 1,000.
Question 2
Hi Luke - so glad football is almost here again. My draft is coming up and I have the 14th pick out of 14 teams. I usually follow the "best available" philosophy so I could pick 2 WRs or RBs in a row in the 1st round, and think nothing of it. But I am wondering if it better for me to grab the best WR and then the best RB (or vice versa)? I am concerned what quality picks will be waiting for me at picks 42 and 43. Todd Faulds Coral Springs, FL
Todd Faulds (Coral Springs, FL)
Us too Todd, us too. Yes, BPA is a pretty tried and true method. After all, points are points, regardless of the abbreviation next to them.
But two picks in the top 40 stings; you could be up against it pretty good this year. While I unfortunately don't have your league's scoring and lineup size particulars (PSA: Include the settings guys!), I'm going to assume elite running backs are still the surest way to the playoffs in your format. With those things hopefully both being true, I'm definitely amenable to going 'old school' with the kind of RB-RB open that allowed our own Ian Allen to pace the league in scoring in last year's FII. Simply put, running back will be well on its way to decimation when the board gets back around to you. WR will be starting to go over the falls too, but a Tee Higgins, Tet McMillan and/or Zay Flowers are liable to make it to you. And maybe your league mates slip up and let Malik Nabers get to you at 42.
Me personally, the running backs I'm zeroing in on there are Ashton Jeanty and Devon Achane. I know, I know, Achane is not for everybody and that is fine, I am not here to impose my beliefs on others! But if you like pina coladas and watching your running backs catch 8-12 balls every week, run to these and escape.
Without tipping our hand on the rankings front too much, there are some names that look like ADP landmines floating around 14-15 in the early ADP data. With that in mind, I don't think going up and getting Brock Bowers at 15 is too bold at all. The 2025 Seattle Seahawks told us, point blank, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be the guy. And if Kubiak's last team simply said it, these Raiders have a Las Vegas strip-style blinking neon sign aimed at Bowers. If he plays 17 games, he will [future statistics redacted]. Reaching a few spots past ADP for someone with a visible path to the top performance at their position puts hardware on shelves, boys.
Question 3
Hey there Ian. Need some keeper help! I’m allowed 2 keepers. I have bijan in the 1st, Egbuka 5th and Drake Maye at 9. I lost a third round pick year for trading for bijan last season.. what’s the best pocket for having the best team.
Ron Best (Church Point, LA)
Yeah, think we can go ahead and remove Bijan from this little thought exercise. Anybody who wouldn't be a reach at 1.01 is mathematically pretty likely to be worth a 1st!
Egbuka in the 5th vs. Maye in the 9th, that's where we start swapping paint. Obviously, Maye is the better straight up value when we strip out positional scarcity — their ADPs both have them going in the 40s/early 50s right now. But probably you, like many, snagged Maye last fall as part of a late QB gambit that paid off handsomely. Stands to reason you would be able to do that again; the QB crop is probably even a tad deeper this time around.
It feels wrong to say this, but I'm going to recommend hanging on to Egbuka. Just gaming it out blind a bit here, but probably only 2-3 teams are going to keep quarterbacks; there will be plenty of big names available to you. In a full PPR format, at least one WR per team is being retained — in that case, Egbuka probably doesn't make it out of the second round. With the upside he flashed for last year's Buccaneers before the injury gods scuttled the whole offense, he's worth getting at that still-discounted rate. But please note the use of the term "recommend" as opposed to something more forceful. Egbuka is the numbers game pick, and I believe in him (or rather, I believe in how much Tampa Bay believes in him). But I believe in Maye more.
Question 4
Hi Luke. I wrote in last week and your response was very helpful and detailed so thank you! Wanted your opinion on a potential trade i was thinking of doing: I am in a 2QB dynasty league, and my starters are Caleb and Baker. My bench QBs are Rodgers and Mac Jones. Starting WRs are JJ, Nico Collins, Waddle and Jameson Williams, bench WRS are A. Mitchell, Keon Coleman, Bateman, Stribling, and two Bears: Zavion Thomas and Jahdae Walker. Would you trade 2 future #1 picks for CJ Stroud and Mathew Golden? Further, do you think either Bears' WR on my roster will become starters?
Howie Fishman (Venice, FL)
Glad to see you add another hole to your mailbag punch card so soon, Howie.
First part's really easy: I might go a future 1 for Stroud, but with how you phrased it this sounds like a package deal. If so, in the immortal words of Randy Jackson: "It's a 'no' from me, dawg." I understand the temptation to approach Stroud as the ultimate buy low: It feels like a distant memory, but only two Septembers ago Stroud was pretty comfortably regarded as the QB3 in dynasty circles. For context, Caleb Williams is the dynasty QB3 today. And we just saw Trevor Lawrence mount a huge market rebound, so why can't Stroud do the same?
And he can, but the 2026 Texans aren't where the 2025 Jaguars were. Lawrence was regarded as being the victim of his surroundings as much as anything. I haven't heard tell of the Texans' front office giving Stroud the same kind of pass. They didn't throw him under the bus for what happened in New England, but they haven't exactly strained to deflect blame away from him either. Houston brass also appear to be in absolutely no rush to do a market rate extension with him before the season. Probably they wind up doing exactly that, but Stroud's future in Houston is not written in ink right now. If Davis Mills wasn't better than Stroud in his four starts then he was certainly as good. There's a scenario where we look back in 12 months with the clear knowledge that the New England Massacre was the beginning of the end for Stroud in Houston.
But in 2QB, a future 1st for literally any quarterback flirting with a mega-extension is not unreasonable. Matthew Golden, however, that guy has a long way to go before I'm giving up a chance to pick in the top 10 of the fabled, much ballyhooed, hotly anticipated 2027 rookie class just for the right to speculate on his future. A rookie season as weak as his should not be taken lightly; if he doesn't have that strong performance in the playoffs his market would have gone into true freefall. Even sending a '27 1st for Stroud right now feels like a bit of a checkdown. The 2027 cohort is that deep.
It was a slight shock when Chicago snapped up Zavion Thomas in the third round. He's a super fun player with field-flipping speed, and I'm sure Ben Johnson will deploy him on offense here and there. But the NFL prioritized kick return ability in this draft like maybe never before: Pittsburgh took Kaden Wetjen a round later, and that guy could have a successful NFL career and fewer than 50 career receptions. Atlanta grabbed Zachariah Branch, New Orleans took Barion Brown: Clearly, in the current league meta teams value having a real weapon returning kicks much more highly. Chicago sinking a Day 2 pick into him was for Thomas the KR, not Thomas the WR.
I would look to flip Thomas at the first opportunity. He could wind up being an All-Pro return man, but unless your league has scoring for return yardage you're probably holding KaVontae Turpin. If he houses a couple long touchdown runs/receptions early, sell high and get those capital gains banked.
On a lesser team, Jahdae Walker might just have a crease to become the next Jalen Coker. When Chicago was shorthanded and trying to lock up the division last December, Walker made some huge plays. Olamide Zaccheaus was allowed to walk in free agency; Walker's heroics were likely a factor. Unfortunately, I think you're likely to be left waiting for Walker to get a crack at a starting spot a lot longer than is palatable. Like we said up top, Burden is for real and Odunze has shown high end ability. Two's company, three's a crowd, etc. They're both interesting enough stashes, but I wouldn't hesitate to include either one as a toss-in to get a trade over the finish line.
Question 5
Hello Luke! May I get your opinion on whether to accept a trade in my dynasty PPR league? I have been offered 1.01 (Jeremiah Love) for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Background information: I won last year with FFI’s assistance so I have 1.12. I have Puka and Rashee and just traded for Nico Collins, but I had to give up Judkins for him. My RBs are Taylor and Jacobs, so I have starters but I’m feeling a little old there. Would you pull the trigger and reload at RB? Or would you stand pat and try to run it back with a deep WR core? Thanks, Dave
David Jung (San Francisco, CA)
Hello, David! We drilled down on the keeper league roster math pretty good in the second Mailbag question for this year's magazine (more on that in a bit). But the abridged version: 'Lower keeper threshold generally favors the draft pick, higher keeper threshold swings back to the player' (assuming otherwise comparable value). Jeremiyah Love plus an extra keeper slot to use on a lesser, but probably still darn good player is pretty compelling.
But I'm having a hard time with the idea of willingly moving off of the bully effect of Nacua/St. Brown in full PPR. Those are two pretty durned effective clubs with which to bonk heads. Unless you've got a pretty compelling difference maker primed to go over the keeper ledge back into the draft pool, I'm keeping the proven world beaters and letting my enemies busy themselves with the Arizona backfield.
Based on the names you lined out, sounds like your keeper threshold is five. That's tough! Love could be a prolific two-way earner in his prime, and only just turned 21 years old; but being freshly 21 on the surest bet in the league to finish last in their division, we're also unlikely to see him approach his potential before 2028. I'd rather go for the jugular than risk a 'contending but reloading' 3D chess move biting me — who's to say that Love isn't where Breece Hall was four years ago? — but I honestly wouldn't fault you either way. It's one of those gut calls you wind up looking back on with either a smile, or a groan.
You're a good sport not to mention it, but we both know you submitted a version of this question several weeks ago. Unfortunately, it got squeezed between the margins; we were long on keeper-related questions, and it wound up on the cutting room floor for this year's mag. But you send in some good material like this in the spring, we will hold a spot for you in the 2027 magazine.
