ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: How does weather affect your lineup decisions?
CORY BONINI
I have been burned several times in the past by overestimating the impact of inclement weather on a player's fantasy performance, so I take each situation case-by-case for skill players and factor in the weather more against players from dome teams than cold-weather guys. It's quite basic and hardly profound: Don't overreact and or avoid stud players. Place kickers are a dime a dozen and also the position most affected by wintry conditions. Offensive players have the clear advantage in poor weather, because they know where they are going on the field, whereas defenders have to react quickly with less-than-ideal footing conditions underneath them.
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DAVID DOREY
The effect of weather is typically overstated. My rule of thumb is I disregard weather so long as it doesn’t have high wind, driving rain or snow and doesn’t have a dome or southern team playing in cold elements that they never experience at home.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
MIKE NAZAREK
I wish I had a "standard rule" to follow, but as you can tell, weather can change quickly, going either bad or better. Take the Eagles game for instance. QB Nick Foles looked terrible in the first half, but by the third quarter, the blizzard had let up enough so that Foles still produced a solid 22-point game for his fantasy owners, including myself. I suppose the best thing to do is to START YOUR STUDS despite poor weather most of the time, and in many cases, things will work out well. Just make sure they are actually playing, and don't re-aggravate a calf injury like RB Reggie Bush did on Sunday just prior to game-time.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
IAN ALLAN
I was looking into this last week. It’s my belief that poor weather helps running games significantly. I think teams are forced to run more often, and it seems to make it harder for defenses to tackle them. If you look at all the games of the last 10 years, there’s about 6 more rushing yards per game in December versus the other three months. About 10 percent more touchdowns, too. For passing, you see declines, but not as much. When it comes to specific players, when we start getting into adverse weather (like what we saw in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Baltimore) I think it tends to favor the bigger guys. At wide receiver, I want the big, 6-foot-4 target running a slant route and catching a short ball, rather than the little 5-foot-9 waterbug who’s game is based on quickness. Same deal at running back. In the inclement weather, my preference is to go with the 230- or 240-pound road grader. Pop the chains on, and let him grind out the yards.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
SAM HENDRICKS
In Fantasy Football Guidebook I cover weather conditions in rule #5. "Many WRs love snow because they know where they are going and can use it to their advantage...they can adjust". So light snow is good for QBs and WRs. "Be wary of heavy snow since this will affect the ability of the QBs and kickers to put the ball a long way down the field". Visibility or lack thereof creates havoc in the passing game in heavy rain or snow conditions. This is exactly what happened in the DET-PHI game. Snow for RBs can be good. Shaun Alexander ran for 201 yards on 40 carries for Seattle in 2006 in a sleet/snow storm.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
SCOTT SACHS
The first factor I look for is which teams have something to play for--that is the most important. If it's the home team, I give their players an edge--to include the defense. The next scenario concerns the visiting team and the kind of team they are--another cold weather team, a warm weather team, a dome team, or a west coast team? If they're another cold weather team, then I weight them equally. If a dome/warm temp/west coast team, then I downgrade. While certainly not 100% reliable, last week's inclement weather games like Philly/Detroit, Pats/Browns, Pitt/Miami, and Balt/Minn had a number of those factors going on.
Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering LIVE Talk/Text/Email consulting & advice. Winner of Fantasy Football Index's 2012 Experts Poll & 2011 Mock Auction League, Scott can be found at http://perfectseasonffb.com/.
ERIC CATURIA
When staring down roster decisions for players that may be impacted by the weather, a number of aspects must be considered. Is rain or snow in the forecast? Are sub-freezing temperatures on the docket? Will wind make its presence felt? No matter the temperature, it's preferable to avoid fumble risks, if any precipitation is expected. Regarding games in snowy or windy conditions, one would think that running the football is preferable to the pass, but Week 14 turned that sentiment on its head, with a combined 25 touchdown passes, versus 13 rushing scores, in contests at Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington. By taking away the 1:5 passing-to-rushing TD ratio in Lions-Eagles, which was unquestionably the snowiest of the group, there were three times as many touchdowns through the air (24) as on the ground (eight) in the remaining five. Sure, the development reflects the current passing nature of the NFL, but offensive players of all sorts took advantage of the fact that defenders had less of an idea where a given play was going, and the smallest juke created larger cushions than normal for the likes of LeSean McCoy, Antonio Brown, and Cordarrelle Patterson to rip off 40-plus yard scores. In any outing in which inclement weather came to pass this past weekend, talent on the offensive side of the ball won out, providing the conclusion that owners should stick with their proven studs and expect rewarding results.
Caturia is a writer/editor of NFL, MLB, and NBA content for RotoWire. He can be found on Twitter @etcat30.
ALAN SATTERLEE
Well to be honest I missed out on knowing the Eagles/Lions game would be as bad as it was. Sheesh that was epic snow and it collected so remarkably fast, that sure was fun TV though! I tend to not overly let weather influence me on studs, but if I had seen the Philadelphia weather as bad as it was I would have sat everyone except for the RBs (and Reggie Bush was a breaking news instant sit yesterday imo). I will sit players as well if very rainy or very windy, especially anyone marginal, and dome teams I tend to inherently give a boost to in my rankings anyway. Kickers I let weather dominate for sure.
Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I have seen a lot of high-flying passing attacks do just fine in cold and snow over the years, so I don't tend to worry too much about that kind of thing. The Eagles-Lions game we just saw was kind of an extreme example; seldom if ever do you see snow so heavy that quarterbacks can't hang onto the ball and kicking can't even be attempted. I guess what I try to avoid is extreme conditions -- extreme cold, extreme snow, and especially high winds. Those are the things that can really slow down passing games and have me shy away from quarterbacks and receivers. Running backs, I won't sit down those guys in conditions; I might even look to start them in games where I know passing will be difficult.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.