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Tucker & Bailey

Following up on a huge kicking game

Dan Bailey and Justin Tucker both scored 18 points this week. In the first 14 weeks of the season, only one other kicker scored more than 16. But what can we expect from these guys next week? Is there anything to an 18-point game? Or is it just luck? Ian Allan explores.

According to my notes, 29 times previously in this century a kicker scored 18 or more points in a game. Of those guys, only five came back the next week and scored 10-plus again.

As a group, those 29 mega scorers averaged 6.4 points the next week, which is shockingly low. The league-wide scoring average since 2000 is 6.8 (that's for the 6,624 games played between 2000 and 2012).

If you lower the ball and look at all scorers with 17-plus points since 2000, the results are similar. There have been 45 guys to hit the 17-point mark (including the 29 guys with 18-plus). These guys averaged only 6.3 points in their followup games.

So no need, in my opinion, to get too excited about Dan Bailey or Justin Tucker on the grounds that they just played well. Those games should be looked at on their own merit.

KICKERS WITH 17 POINTS -- THE NEXT WEEK
YearTeamKickerPtsNext
2007Tenn.Rob Bironas267
2003Dall.Billy Cundiff235
2000St.L.Jeff Wilkins211
2007Cin.Shayne Graham219
2004N.E.Adam Vinatieri2017
2004Car.John Kasey208
2006Atl.Morten Andersen202
2003S.F.Jeff Chandler196
2002Pitt.Jeff Reed196
2005Ariz.Neil Rackers198
2006Clev.Phil Dawson195
2010Ariz.Jay Feely196
2011Oak.Sebastian Janikowski192
2012K.C.Ryan Succop192
2000Jac.Mike Hollis187
2000Atl.Morten Andersen182
2001Phil.David Akers183
2002Atl.Jay Feely1810
2005NYGJay Feely186
2006St.L.Jeff Wilkins187
2007Jac.Josh Scobee185
2008Buff.Rian Lindell183
2010Sea.Olindo Mare1813
2010S.D.Nate Kaeding187
2010Jac.Josh Scobee183
2011Dall.Dan Bailey1812
2012NYGLawrence Tynes185
2012Minn.Blair Walsh1811
2013Phil.Alex Henery187
2000G.B.Ryan Longwell176
2001NYJJohn Hall179
2003Ind.Mike Vanderjagt178
2004Phil.David Akers175
2004N.E.Adam Vinatieri179
2006Buff.Rian Lindell171
2008Tenn.Rob Bironas174
2008NYJJay Feely1710
2008N.E.Stephen Gostkowski177
2008Clev.Phil Dawson176
2009Tenn.Rob Bironas179
2010NYJNick Folk176
2011S.D.Nick Novak173
2011Balt.Billy Cundiff171
2012NYGLawrence Tynes178
2012Hou.Shayne Graham176

--Ian Allan

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