Dan Bailey and Justin Tucker both scored 18 points this week. In the first 14 weeks of the season, only one other kicker scored more than 16. But what can we expect from these guys next week? Is there anything to an 18-point game? Or is it just luck? Ian Allan explores.
According to my notes, 29 times previously in this century a kicker scored 18 or more points in a game. Of those guys, only five came back the next week and scored 10-plus again.
As a group, those 29 mega scorers averaged 6.4 points the next week, which is shockingly low. The league-wide scoring average since 2000 is 6.8 (that's for the 6,624 games played between 2000 and 2012).
If you lower the ball and look at all scorers with 17-plus points since 2000, the results are similar. There have been 45 guys to hit the 17-point mark (including the 29 guys with 18-plus). These guys averaged only 6.3 points in their followup games.
So no need, in my opinion, to get too excited about Dan Bailey or Justin Tucker on the grounds that they just played well. Those games should be looked at on their own merit.
KICKERS WITH 17 POINTS -- THE NEXT WEEK | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Kicker | Pts | Next |
2007 | Tenn. | Rob Bironas | 26 | 7 |
2003 | Dall. | Billy Cundiff | 23 | 5 |
2000 | St.L. | Jeff Wilkins | 21 | 1 |
2007 | Cin. | Shayne Graham | 21 | 9 |
2004 | N.E. | Adam Vinatieri | 20 | 17 |
2004 | Car. | John Kasey | 20 | 8 |
2006 | Atl. | Morten Andersen | 20 | 2 |
2003 | S.F. | Jeff Chandler | 19 | 6 |
2002 | Pitt. | Jeff Reed | 19 | 6 |
2005 | Ariz. | Neil Rackers | 19 | 8 |
2006 | Clev. | Phil Dawson | 19 | 5 |
2010 | Ariz. | Jay Feely | 19 | 6 |
2011 | Oak. | Sebastian Janikowski | 19 | 2 |
2012 | K.C. | Ryan Succop | 19 | 2 |
2000 | Jac. | Mike Hollis | 18 | 7 |
2000 | Atl. | Morten Andersen | 18 | 2 |
2001 | Phil. | David Akers | 18 | 3 |
2002 | Atl. | Jay Feely | 18 | 10 |
2005 | NYG | Jay Feely | 18 | 6 |
2006 | St.L. | Jeff Wilkins | 18 | 7 |
2007 | Jac. | Josh Scobee | 18 | 5 |
2008 | Buff. | Rian Lindell | 18 | 3 |
2010 | Sea. | Olindo Mare | 18 | 13 |
2010 | S.D. | Nate Kaeding | 18 | 7 |
2010 | Jac. | Josh Scobee | 18 | 3 |
2011 | Dall. | Dan Bailey | 18 | 12 |
2012 | NYG | Lawrence Tynes | 18 | 5 |
2012 | Minn. | Blair Walsh | 18 | 11 |
2013 | Phil. | Alex Henery | 18 | 7 |
2000 | G.B. | Ryan Longwell | 17 | 6 |
2001 | NYJ | John Hall | 17 | 9 |
2003 | Ind. | Mike Vanderjagt | 17 | 8 |
2004 | Phil. | David Akers | 17 | 5 |
2004 | N.E. | Adam Vinatieri | 17 | 9 |
2006 | Buff. | Rian Lindell | 17 | 1 |
2008 | Tenn. | Rob Bironas | 17 | 4 |
2008 | NYJ | Jay Feely | 17 | 10 |
2008 | N.E. | Stephen Gostkowski | 17 | 7 |
2008 | Clev. | Phil Dawson | 17 | 6 |
2009 | Tenn. | Rob Bironas | 17 | 9 |
2010 | NYJ | Nick Folk | 17 | 6 |
2011 | S.D. | Nick Novak | 17 | 3 |
2011 | Balt. | Billy Cundiff | 17 | 1 |
2012 | NYG | Lawrence Tynes | 17 | 8 |
2012 | Hou. | Shayne Graham | 17 | 6 |
--Ian Allan