Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Preliminary top 20 for the 2014 season. Why Zach Miller makes sense as a plug-in player for Week 16. When do you bench a star player who's been starting all year? And when do you simply dance with what brung ya?
Question 1
It's never too early ... can you give us your rough top 20 for next year?
TOMMY LUCKNER (Wichita, KS)
I hadn’t thought about it. But now that you raise the issue, we can kick around a few names. And we’ll assume a typical-type league – 12 teams, points for touchdowns and yards, starting QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and TE. No PPR. In this kind of format, a quarterback has to be pretty special to be selected in the top 20, so the only ones I’d put on my rough draft list would be Rodgers, Good Manning and Brees. Two tight ends make my first draft, Jimmy Graham (definite) and Julius Thomas (maybe). At running back, I’ve got Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, LeVeon Bell, Giovani Bernard, and maybe Matt Forte (who’s on the back side of his career). Marshawn Lynch is like Forte; he’s been a great back, but the years and hits are starting to pile up. And let’s see where Andre Williams and Tre Mason get drafted; they look like big-time running backs who might make an impact right away. And at wide receiver, I’m including Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown. That’s a few more than 20, but I’m guessing all of my top 20 will come out of that pool of players.
Question 2
Ok Ian. You've been my go-to guy for 10 years and I call on you for my championship this week. I just need a FA Tight End, to draft and play this weekend. I was wondering what you thought. Here are the available choices: Pitta, Eifert, Cook, Myers, Paulsen, Cumberland, Miller, Ertz, Wright. Thanks for the help. Look forward to hearing from you.
William Farago (NEW YORK, NY)
Dennis Pitta and Zach Miller are the two guys I’d be looking at. They’re ranked slightly differently, depending on what scoring system you’re using. Pitta’s only been back for two games, but I thought he looked fine in that snow game against the Vikings. In each of his three games against New England the last two years, he’s caught 5 passes and a touchdown. Joe Flacco has the knee injury, and that needs to be considered. With Zach Miller, you’re getting a lesser talent but a better matchup. Arizona has allowed 15 TDs to tight ends. That’s the most by any defense in this century.
Most TDs to tight ends | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Defense | TD |
2013 | Arizona | 15 |
2011 | Buffalo | 13 |
2003 | San Diego | 12 |
2004 | Oakland | 12 |
2009 | Detroit | 12 |
2013 | Minnesota | 12 |
2000 | Kansas City | 11 |
2004 | Minnesota | 11 |
2005 | Kansas City | 11 |
2008 | San Diego | 11 |
2009 | NY Giants | 11 |
2010 | Buffalo | 11 |
2010 | Philadelphia | 11 |
2012 | Denver | 11 |
2012 | Houston | 11 |
2004 | Tennessee | 10 |
2005 | Minnesota | 10 |
2007 | Cleveland | 10 |
2009 | Chicago | 10 |
2012 | Washington | 10 |
2013 | Atlanta | 10 |
2013 | Miami | 10 |
2013 | Washington | 10 |
Question 3
I have KC and Carolina defenses but am not comfortable with week 16 match ups. Should I stick with what has been working or pick up one of the many available defenses?
PATRICK MORGAN (EL DORADO, CA)
Neither unit has a great matchup, but they’re not terrible either. I’ve still got both of those groups in my top 10 (KC at #8, and Panthers at #9). New Orleans is plugging in a rookie at left tackle, which is promising. Whether you make a move, I guess, depends on whether any of those top 7 defenses are sitting on the waiver wire. Maybe Cleveland, Buffalo or Detroit.
Question 4
My league uses CBSSports for our commissioner service. I know ESPN, NFL.COM and Yahoo have services. However, I am looking for a service where I might be able to automate a process where waivers are awarded at 3 am every Thursday, Friday and Saturday morning ... and then free agency takes over at 9 am on Saturday until the noon start of games on Sunday. This way players are distributed equally for all owners in the league through the waiver process (many owners work at jobs that don't allow access to the web, therefore missing out on the "first come/first serve" of free agency) during the week. And it's free agency once the weekend starts. Do you, or any of your readers, know of any commissioner service that offers this kind of automated flexibility?
Rick Cwik (LEMONT, IL)
I haven’t been a commissioner at all those sites, so I don’t know which ones would be able to handle that kind of system. But I’m some readers are. I’m hoping one will chime in with the answer you’re looking for.
Question 5
Thanks to you and everyone else at "the Index" for all your hard work once again! One of my teams has clawed, scratched, and twerked their way into the championship game this week. While my position player decisions are pretty black and white, my question is in regards to kickers! (and to an extension D/ST). Phil Dawson has been lights out down the stretch, but this week plays at home against an Atlanta team with just a sneeze better than traffic cones for defense and nothing for which to play. Sure the Niners will pile up the points, but this could be all TD's, no? (I do realize ATL ranks at the bottom for giving up kicker points) Astute or asinine: Chasing kicker matchups (or even D/ST) in the championship game?
NICK FRITZ (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)
To me, defenses and kickers are just like the other positions. You spend just as much time analyzing them, doing everything you can to put your best lineup on the field. In some ways, you spend more research time on this position. There’s typically better kicker/defense options sitting there on the waiver wire, so there’s more potential to juggle your roster. In this case, I am sticking with Dawson. He’s a great kicker; he’s hit about 24 in a row. And when the ball is in the red zone, I trust that Colin Kaepernick will fail to convert some of those possessions into touchdowns. As you point out, it’s scary with Atlanta that they might be too bad to come up enough stops, but it hasn’t worked out that way in enough of their games. The Falcons have allowed 32 field goals, 2nd-most in the league, and opponents have scored 136 kicking points against them, which is the most in the league. You start Dawson.
Question 6
Well, I don't know about anyone else, but if your faithful subscribers followed your advice from day one, they likely landed Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning (I know I did picking in the fifth spot - Jamaal in first round and Peyton in third round). That proved to be a recipe for a practically effortless romp into the playoffs, and even though Peyton had a relatively quiet game on Thursday, Jamaal was enough to bring anyone home to a first-round playoff victory. What a stud. I'm now down to the finals, and have a bunch of relatively equal choices for the second RB (Chris Johnson and Giovani Bernard), and receiver/tight end (we combine them and play three - standard yardage, plus PPR). The squad of almost starters are Julius Thomas, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Kendall Wright and Mike Wallace. I keep picking the wrong ones and have escaped with victories in spite of my poor player selections. Wallace and Wright were horrible two weeks ago, so I benched them this week and they naturally exploded. I keep choosing incorrectly between Johnson and Bernard. I think matchups and weather count for something this time of year, but I decided to ask the true expert if he had a strong preference for week 16. Thanks, as always, and keep up the great work.
James Morton (NEW ORLEANS, LA)
Thanks for the kind words. I will go with Bernard over Johnson for sure. The Bengals keep using Bernard more and more, and he’s a big part of their passing game. At wide receiver, I’d call Wright and Thomas the givens – those guy are definitely starting. Wallace has been playing better recently, so I’d give him the edge over the two Atlanta guys (who have a poor matchup).
Question 7
Here it is. Championship week in my Dynasty League and I find myself with quite the pickle. Scoring format is .7 points per pass yard, 4 points per passing TD. I have Andrew Luck up against KC or Kirk Cousins up against Dallas. I have been rolling with Luck all year with the exception of his bye week and normally I am a ride til you die with who got you there kind of player but Luck has shown levels of inconsistency at points this year. He does seem to save his best for the big games and KC has shown recently that they can be passed and scored on. On the other side, I have Cousins who always seems to perform when given the chance and he is against one of the worst defenses in the league. My gut is telling me to stick with Luck but I needed to reach to an outside source. Who would you play?
Nathan Kline (Topton, PA)
I’d go with Cousins, and it really isn’t that close. Just a much better matchup. Luck has real NFL playoff games to win. I don’t think his feelings will be hurt too badly if you leave him out of your starting lineup.
Question 8
So I'm getting ready to pick up Delanie Walker and I have to take a business call and come back and not only was he gone, the team I'm playing took him. I've been kicking myself all day over that. Should I keep kicking myself or am I going to be ok with Pitta? In the weekly you mention his track record the last few games against New England.
JOHN RUPPE (FORT MYERS, FL)
I’ve got Walker ranked a little higher, but I wouldn’t worry about it too much. According to my projections, there’s less than 1 fantasy point of difference between those guys. When was the last time you were in a game that was settled by less than a point?
Question 9
What is your feeling on sitting your studs during Championship week? I have AJ Green, Andre Johnson and Jamaal Charles, who I'm obviously going to start, but guys like Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have gotten me where I am, but I'm considering sitting them for Jay Cutler or, if he's healthy, Aaron Rodgers, and Delanie Walker, respectively. Is it wrong to go against the guys that got you there week to week and play the matchups in this all-important final week of the fantasy season?
Drew Bankston (Tyler, TX)
I don’t care who started last week. Not at all. The job is to put the best players on the field. You’ve got to make those tough decisions. So even if Andre Johnson has started 14 games for you this year, if you find a better receiver on the waiver wire, you don’t hesitate to plug that guy in. That’s always how I’ve run my teams.
Question 10
Just read the Wednesday newsletter & am unsure of myself this coming week. I have made the Super Bowl & I am grateful for that. It wasn't possible without your insight & re-drafters, throughout the season. It's inconceivable that I am considering benching my number one draft pick, Ray Rice, for the game (despite facing the Pats). My decisions may take better shape after your Friday night update (or more likely, Sunday morning) because of MJD versus Todman. You helped me get to the finals with Todman last week. I'm in a PPR league, standard scoring, where 1 RB is started with 2 WRs and 2 FLEX spots (1 TE, also). Backs are Todman, Rice, Chris Johnson, Andre Brown, & Montee Ball. My gut is telling me go with Todman & CJ, with Delanie Walker (thank you, also) & Coby Fleener. With Cam Newton, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Hauschka, & the Panther "D" rounding out who I'd start, I'm hoping for a miracle. More to sort out with your Friday update.
Donald McCown (CHICAGO, IL)
Jones-Drew hasn’t been practicing, so for now I think you can assume Todman will be one of those starters. To me, Crabtree is the guy you should be looking at. Would be nice to plug in a player with more upside into that spot.