Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: under-the-radar players to pick up in dynasty leagues. Is Delanie Walker this week's sleeper tight end? And should fantasy leaguers be looking to duck out against the Giants' run defense?
Question 1
What is going on with Delanie Walker? I heard last weekend he was supposed to have his final concussion test on Tuesday but I saw no subsequent news about it come Tuesday. I'm nervous about another Jordan Reed situation where he's a last-second inactive in a late game and owners are left in the lurch. I picked up Gresham who plays on Sunday night just in case. Was wondering if you could shed some light on Walker's status for me.
Sean Haider (PORTLAND, OR)
Walker didn’t practice at all last week; it was clear he wasn’t going to play. Now he’s on track to start against Arizona. He’s practicing fully. The Titans have released Visanthe Shiancoe (who’s also a tight end). If they thought there was any chance Walker wasn’t going to play, they would have kept Shiancoe. I expect Walker will be very good against an Arizona defense that’s allowed a league-high 14 TDs against tight ends.
Question 2
I'm out of it in a couple dynasty leagues, I can add a few 'flyers' for next year, any guys (especially RB) that haven't hit most people's radars that you think might have value at next year's drafts?
DAVID DREIDEL (YORKVILLE, NY)
I’ll stick just to running backs, and I’ll stick to guys who aren’t starting now. In no particular order: Marcus Lattimore (he says he’s healthy now; might be San Francisco’s starting tailback at some point). Robert Turbin (Seattle’s current backup tailback, and one of the top half dozen backup running backs in the league, I think). Christine Michael (I think he’s more talented than Robert Turbin and will probably move past him in the offseason. Andre Ellington (really kind of a starter right now; could be really good next year). Jordan Todman (seems to be an above-average backup tailback now; could prove that if MJD sits out this weekend). David Wilson (on injured reserve with neck injury; when he’s physically right and starts hanging onto the ball, he should be something special). Jonathan Stewart (hurt right now, but he’ll probably be more of an undisputed No. 1 tailback next year – DeAngelo Williams is 31). Backup tailbacks that you already know all about: Shonn Greene, Ben Tate, Montee Ball, Knile Davis, Bryce Brown, Joique Bell, Toby Gerhart.
Question 3
Looking to get a jump on my Dynasty League for next year and am looking for possible keeper candidates that may be available for next year. Can you give me a list of WRs/TEs that may be starting next year that are under the radar this year?
DAMON DUHON (BATON ROUGE, LA)
I will throw out some names. I will focus on guys who are either backups or unproductive starters right now. In no particular order: Markus Wheaton (has hardly played as a rookie, but he could still quickly develop into a Brown-Sanders type receiver for the Steelers). Marquise Goodwin (has caught a couple of deep balls; looked like maybe the league’s best kickoff returner in the preseason). Josh Boyce (has been outperformed by two other rookie receivers this year in New England – Thompkins & Dobson – but isn’t that far behind those guys). Justin Hunter (really talented, and they’re just starting to use him – 100-plus yards in two of his last three games). Tyler Eifert (probably will be a top-20 tight end as a rookie; might go top 10 next year). DaRick Rogers (I assume you noticed his monster game at Cincinnati – a real up-and-comer). Ace Sanders (next little player for the Jaguars; don’t see him ever becoming a top-30 wide receiver, though). Andre Holmes (has played really well in limited duty for the Raiders; huge guy with the ability to catch the ball in traffic). Brice Butler (another big, talented Oakland wideout; he looked really good earlier in the year). Mychal Rivera (decent rookie year; could develop into a top-15 tight end). Danario Alexander (was really good in 2012; but too many serious knee injuries). Ladarius Green (has played well enough in the last month that he really shouldn’t even be eligible to be on this kind of a list). Terrance Williams (also too good to be on this list; I consider it a certainty that Miles Austin will be gone and Williams will be starting next year). Brandon Bostick (athletic reserve tight end for Green Bay). Jeremy Maclin (coming off ACL injury). Nick Toon (Saints backup who should move up in the pecking order). Joseph Fauria (tall tight end whose role for Lions could expand). Mike Williams (on Tampa Bay’s injured reserve; was a disappointment prior to his injury). Levine Toilolo (Atlanta needs a new starting tight end). And finally, Quinton Patton of the 49ers; he showed some really good after-the-catch ability in the preseason, and I was surprised they left him on their active roster for 10 weeks when he had a broken foot.
Question 4
Another site has stated the Denarius Moore of Oakland was practicing today. Do you feel he is going to play this week (15), and if so, where do you project him in your rankings (he's not in rankings that came out today 12/11)?
RON ALBUS (SARASOTA, FL)
Moore is practicing. Let me see how much he does in practice later today. Assuming that it looks like he’ll play, I think you’ll see him somewhere between 40th and 50th among wide receivers.
Question 5
In your writeup for this week, you seem to be pretty high on Marshawn Lynch, citing that the Giants haven't really been very good against the run this year other than a 3 game stretch in the middle of the season. Here are their numbers this year vs. primary backs: Murray (20-86, 4.3 ypc), Moreno (13-93, 7.2), D.Williams (23-120, 5.2), Charles (18-65, 3.6), McCoy (20-46, 2.3), Forte (19-67, 3.5), Peterson (13-28, 2.2), McCoy (15-48, 3.2), Jennings (20-88, 4.4), Lacy (14-27, 1.9), Murray (14-86, 6.1), Morris (11-26, 2.4), Mathews (29-103, 3.6) Look at the running backs they have faced. Peterson, Charles, McCoy, Murray, Forte, Lacy, Morris, Moreno. Of those premium backs, Murray and Moreno were the only to have any kind of success against them, and two of those three games were the first two games of the season. It seems like the lesser backs have actually had the most success against them (Williams and Mathews were the only rushers to go over 100 against them, and Jennings had a quality outing. Perhaps they really focus on the run more when going against premium backs (like Lynch). Another possible source of deception when looking at how good they are vs. the run is the success that rushing QBs have had against them. RG3, Pryor, Vick, Alex Smith and Newton all had good running games against them. They seem to be much poorer against defending against the QB rushing. Given this, would you think that Russell Wilson should perhaps be ranked a little bit higher, and Lynch a little lower? Or am I reading too much into this?
john stolzmann (LAS VEGAS, NV)
That’s good analysis. Thank you. I agree with your point. New York has been good against the run. If you combine those guys and call them “Tailback starting against Giants”, that player is on pace for only 1,087 rushing yards. So that’s a good run defense. It ranks 11th against the run, even though it’s been burned, as you point out, by more running quarterbacks than typical unit. The correct slotting, therefore, is to project Seattle to run for fewer yards than usual in this game, and we may see Russell Wilson run a little more than usual. That said, I wouldn’t move Lynch too far down from where he’s typically been this year. He’s a good running back, and he’s come up big against the good run defenses this year – including San Francisco twice and Arizona.
Question 6
One thing I think would be helpful is something related to the waiver wire each week. Most leagues waiver process starts on Tuesday and the weekly sheet doesn't come out until Wednesday. While some waiver wire moves are pretty self explanatory, I have found that the weekly sheet does have some wildcards that would have been great to know about a day earlier. By the time Wednesday afternoon hits, anyone with real value is most likely claimed.
Bill Petilli (LARCHMONT, NY)
I don’t agree with the premise that most leagues process waivers on Tuesday. I’ve been playing fantasy football for 28 years, and I’ve never been in a league that does waivers on Tuesday. I’d be willing to beat that at least three times as many leagues do waivers on Wednesday (or later) rather than Tuesday. But whatever; let’s talk about the point at hand – your league. The problem with us trying to put together a complete or accurate waiver list for Tuesday is that it creates a cart-in-front-of-the-horse issue. To figure out who’s good and who’s bad, we have to carefully look at each game – the tendencies of the offenses and defenses and whatnot. That takes time, and only after that process do we really figure out what we think is going to happen. We’re already working with very limited time trying to scout and write up the 16 games for the Wednesday product. If we spend all day Monday working on a Tuesday waiver-wire report, what do you suppose would happen to the quality of the Wednesday product? It’s not really workable to throw together a 15-minute waiver wire preview because we’re working with all kinds of different leagues – the key free agent pickup in a PPR format might not even in the hunt to be considered in a TD-only format and there’s no way he’s even available in this other league, which has 14 owners. On my end, I’m quickly worked into a tangled mess. So let’s do this: Going forward, if there’s some player you have a question about – some guy you need to know an answer on prior to your Tuesday deadline – you email that in (along with your deadline). We’ll give you our pre-research answer, as best we can, to try to help you along. Then you can read the fully scouted report on said player on Wednesday. Fair enough?
Question 7
What is the general attitude regarding decimal scoring systems – it seems that leagues are trending that way (our 8 year league will begin decimal scoring next year), but the purist in me thinks that whole-digit scores are better, and that mucking things up with all this decimal point business makes things look ugly on the scoreboard. A poll question on this might be interesting to see.
ADAM HOLTZ (ROCHESTER, MN)
Sounds good. I’ll throw the poll question up on the site. On the one hand, it’s nice to have clean scores. 83-79 looks better than 83.4-79.2. On the other hand, if we’re using 1 point for every 10 yards, I want the team that finishes with better stats to win. I don’t want to see an 84-84 tie if one team finished with 7 more yards. And I don’t want to see a team lose with whole-digit scoring if it would have won with the more accurate decimal scoring.
Question 8
Been a subscriber since 1997 and I'm in the semis in 3 out of 4 leagues ... which is no coincidence. Thank you for advising drafting Megatron early, your predraft confidence in Alshon Jeffrey and Fred Jackson, and advising me to keep Vereen stashed for the first ten weeks. Anyway, with the advent of performance-based leagues, PPR, IDP, and increasingly complex defensive scoring methods, I am starting to wax nostalgic for TD-only leagues. Thinking about starting a dynasty TD-only. How do you feel about them, and are any of your "main" leagues TD-only?
Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)
Yes, my original league is TD-only. We started with that in 1986, and we’ve stuck with that format. Our only changes have been to add a third starting wide receiver, add tight ends as a separate position and eliminate defenses entirely. We go 6 points for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 3 for field goals and 1 for extra points. All scores from 50-plus yards are doubled in value. I like the TD-only, but it’s a different animal. In a PPR format, you tend to be looking for players who’ll be involved in the passing game. Guys like Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, and any receiver who catches 80-plus balls. When you’re scouting a game, you’re looking for guys who you can count on to catch a healthy share of balls. With the TD-only, you’re looking just for scoring. If a team definitely is going to win its game – if it’s going to be in the red zone often – then you tend to gravitate towards those players. Mike Tolbert is the goal-line back for the Panthers; he becomes a surprisingly viable option on a lot of weeks.
Question 9
I've been terrible streaming defenses. I'm holding Cincy and Pittsburgh. Available are Dallas, Buffalo, Detroit, Tampa Bay. I can't believe I'm even mentioning them but Jacksonville and Atlanta. Lions are interesting because I'm choosing both Russell Wilson (strange feeling about him @NY and Flacco (Lions poor secondary). If I went Flacco I could hedge against his inevitable INTs. Thanks. Great stuff down the stretch!
Russell Ditnes (JAMISON, PA)
Flacco hasn’t been able to avoid mistakes. He’s thrown 17 interceptions, and he’s been sacked 41 times. Only two quarterbacks have more combined sacks/interceptions: Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith. What’s up with that? Flacco in the past has been really good at avoiding interceptions (just 10-12 five years in a row). He’s been sacked 31 and 35 times the last two years, so sack numbers are also up. As part of the process of the Weekly, we look at these numbers for all the quarterbacks and defenses (and who they’ve done in the last month and against similar opposition). It’s our opinion that Detroit is the best of the defenses you mention, with Cincinnati next in line.
Question 10
I had to pick up Campbell and Tannehill this week. You have them virtually identical in your rankings. My opponent has Josh Gordon. Am I better off starting Campbell as an insurance policy in case Gordon goes off? Or do I start Tannehill because he is slightly higher in your rankings?
DAVID THEIN (CARPENTERSVILLE, IL)
My gut tells me Campbell. He’s played very well in his four complete games this year. Chicago has been garbage against the run this year, but I don’t think the Browns have the ability to play that kind of game. I think they’ll be throwing, and Campbell should be very good against the team he played for last year. Potential weather issues in Cleveland, so you’ll want to check that out on Sunday morning. I like the idea of hedging against Gordon. As you can tell via the projections, though, not much difference between those guys. Tannehill has been running a lot more recently, and he’s right there.
Question 11
Lineup question. Who do I sit? Standard scoring. I can start 2rb, 2wr, and 1 flex. Here's the choices rb McCoy, bush, chris Johnson. Wr- aj green, Torrey smith, Alshon Jeffery. Of those 6 players who do I sit? Also, would you start McCown over flacco and Alex smith? Thanks
Jason Howes (STEWARTVILLE, MN)
Sorry, I don’t do WHO SHOULD I START questions in the mailbag. Otherwise, I would get way too many questions. The procedure is to look over the rankings in the Wednesday newsletter. If you then have followup questions, then you use the mailbag.
Question 12
1 RB 1 Flex : Chris Johnson, Vereen, Keenan Allen need two. Non PPR
Lance Reiss (TARZANA, CA)
Sorry, I don’t do WHO SHOULD I START questions in the mailbag. Otherwise, I would get way too many questions. The procedure is to look over the rankings in the Wednesday newsletter. If you then have followup questions, then you use the mailbag.