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Factoid

Not-so-Super No. 1 seeds

Seattle, Denver unlikely to meet in championship

If you’re building a postseason fantasy team, how much should you load up on Seahawks and Broncos? Those teams are the No. 1 seeds in each conference, but those kind of teams have been surprisingly unsuccessful in the postseason recently. In the last nine years, only one Super Bowl has been won by a No. 1 seed.


In the last eight years, it’s been far more common to see No. 1 seeds lose their first game than advance to the Super Bowl. Those teams have gone only 7-9 in their first games (that is, 9 one-and-dones). Of the seven No. 1 seeds that won their first games, at least, they went 6-1 the next week in the conference title games – but only one of those teams than sealed the deal with a championship.

In the last 20 years, only once has the Super Bowl featured two No. 1 seeds. That was when the Saints beat the Colts following the 2009 season. You look at that kind of number, and it becomes much clearer how unlikely it is that Seattle and Denver will meet in the big game.

The more usual model nowadays seems to be the less-heralded option who gets hot at the right time. That’s the way it’s played out the last three years with the Packers, Giants and Ravens.

So for fantasy purposes, while the smart, logical decision is to build around Broncos and Seahawks, the winner in whatever the fantasy competition may be is more likely to be the guy who invests heavily in that off-the-radar team that gets hot.

With that in mind, I guess the question is, which lesser team do you think has the best chance of putting together a hot streak?


HOW NO. 1 SEEDS HAVE FARED THIS CENTURY

2000
Tennessee (13-3) lost first game
NY Giants (12-4) lost Super Bowl

2001
Pittsburgh (13-3) lost AFC title game
St. Louis (14-2) lost Super Bowl

2002
Oakland (11-5) lost Super Bowl
Philadelphia (12-4) lost NFC title game

2003
New England (14-2) won Super Bowl
Phildelphia (12-4) lost NFC title game

2004
Pittsburgh (15-1) lost AFC title game
Phildelphia (13-3) lost Super Bowl

2005
Indianapolis (14-2) lost first game
Seattle (13-3) lost Super Bowl

2006
San Diego (14-2) lost first game
Chicago (13-3) lost Super Bowl

2007
New England (16-0) lost Super Bowl
Dallas (13-3) lost first game

2008
Tennessee (13-3) lost first game
NY Giants (12-4) lost first game

2009
Indianapolis (14-2) lost Super Bowl
New Orleans (13-3) won Super Bowl

2010
New England (12-4) lost first game
Atlanta (13-3) lost first game

2011
New England (13-3) lost Super Bowl
Green Bay (15-1) lost first game

2012
Denver (13-3) lost first game
Atlanta (13-3) lost NFC title game

2013
Denver (13-3)
Seattle (13-3)


--Ian Allan


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