Peyton Manning has reclaimed the record for touchdowns. He's had a great year. But has his season been more impressive than other great ones in the past? Or is it cheapened by the reality that rules changes have inflated everyone's numbers?
When I first started working on this one, I expected to show that Dan Marino's 48 TD passes in 1984 was a lot more impressive than what Manning's done. With the numbers that quarterbacks are putting up this year, I expected to see a much bigger difference between Marino (versus his contemporaries) and Manning (versus the other quarterbacks today).
But that's not the case.
It looks like Manning not only is going to finish with the touchdown record, but there also will be a bigger difference between him and the rest of the league's quarterbacks.
When Marino threw 48 TDs in 1984, the other 27 teams averaged 21 TD passes. So Marino beat them by 27.
That's the same margin we saw from Manning in 2004, when he threw 49 TDs. The other quarterbacks that year averaged 22 TD passes.
When Tom Brady tossed 50 TDs in 2007, the league's other teams averaged 21.6 TD passes. So a difference of 28.4.
Manning still has a game left, so the numbers aren't final yet, but right now he's sitting 28.2 TDs ahead of the average of the other 31 teams. So if he throws 3-4 TDs again on Sunday, he'll finish way ahead of these other quarterbacks.
Here are the guys who've thrown at least 45. With Aaron Rodgers, keep in mind that he chose to sit out the final game that year. Otherwise, he'd probably be a big part of the discussion (sitting in for him, Matt Flynn threw 6 TDs in Week 17 against Detroit that year).
| QUARTERBACKS WITH 45+ TD PASSES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | vs. Avg |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 51 | +28.2 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 50 | +28.4 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 49 | +27.0 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 46 | +23.4 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 45 | +22.6 |
| 1984 | Dan Marino, Mia. | 48 | +27.0 |
--Ian Allan