In fantasy football, I feel a lot worse about missing the playoffs than making the playoffs and getting bounced. The former usually makes me think I screwed up either the draft or roster management, while the latter can often come down to dumb luck (as those relying on Broncos who were bounced in Denver's one poor week all season, Week 15, would attest). In the NFL, as well, it seems to me like missing the playoffs would feel a lot worse than making it and getting your ticket punched in the first round. Bears and Cowboys are miserable today. Chargers are happy even if they get waxed in Cincinnati next week.
Today's recap will focus on the games that actually mattered yesterday, and there were some great ones. Nobody needs to care about Giants-Washington, Titans-Texans, or Jaguars-Colts, right?
Panthers at Falcons: I feared the Panthers would show up flat, and they did, but they pulled it out anyway. Cam Newton got plenty of credit, and deservedly so, but it was fitting that Carolina's defense made the huge pick-6 that really got the Panthers off the mat. Early in the year I knew the Panthers would have a good pass rush but didn't buy their secondary. It played well almost all year long, and the pass rush had a league-best 60 sacks, so nearly 4 per game. Impressive. That defense will need to play great in the postseason, because ordinary is about the kindest thing you can say for the offensive talent on this team.
Ravens at Bengals: You kind of knew the Ravens were in trouble when they got a couple of early interceptions but settled for field goals. Then they clawed their way all the way back but got smacked in the mouth late. No running game, kind of a shaky season for Joe Flacco. And the Bengals have a whole lot of talent. I think Cincinnati will dominate San Diego next week and win easily, and if Andy Dalton can throw only to his own guys, they'll give the Patriots some trouble in Foxborough in the second round, maybe even win. For Baltimore, I have Ray Rice in two dynasty leagues, so I am hoping an offseason of rest and rehab will get him back into solid form. He just seems too young to be washed up.
Jets at Dolphins: I agree with New York's move to bring back Rex Ryan. Yeah, he's a blustering blowhard, but he doesn't draft or develop the offensive "talent." Geno Smith showed some level of improvement over the course of the season, at least down the stretch. Give him a receiver or two and maybe he'll continue to make strides. Probably not, but hey, this team somehow went 8-8, so it's not a hopeless trainwreck. Miami, in contrast, finished poorly, with a couple of lopsided losses when a win in either would have got them a playoff spot. I don't think the coach should be fired and don't think Ryan Tannehill regressed, but it's clearly a team with some problems, and I doubt Jeff Ireland is the guy to fix them.
Lions at Vikings: Nothing to add on this except Cordarrelle Patterson is as good as we figured he could be coming out of college, and I think firing Leslie Frazier was a fine move -- he didn't get more out of this team than he should have, and he'd had a fair chance to do so. Mismanaged the quarterback situation all season and oversaw a horrible defense, which should have theoretically been a strength. Lions should also fire Jim Schwartz, if for no other reason than he's kind of a jerk and his team follows his lead. Needs a new boss.
Browns at Steelers: Actually looked like the Steelers would be in the playoffs right up until overtime of San Diego-Kansas City, which would have been pretty amazing. Imagine if Antonio Brown hadn't stepped out of bounds three weeks back. Game of inches. At least LeVeon Bell, who had an impressive, spinning touchdown run yesterday, looks like the team's franchise back for the next few years. Impressive second half for him, and an all-time great season for Antonio Brown, who I suspect some people thought we had ranked too high in the preseason. Great year, and possibly the league's most consistent fantasy wideout. At least five catches in every single game; hard to complain too much. ... No real opinion on the Browns firing Rob Chudzinski. The team did collapse down the stretch, although he wasn't exactly handed a team brimming with talent. Eventually Cleveland will have to throw some support behind a head coach, not just keep firing them and stuff. If this team had also traded Josh Gordon, as was rumored, they should have immediately fired themselves.
Texans at Titans: Texans have the top pick! I think they should draft a quarterback.
49ers at Cardinals: I think Bruce Arians makes a lot of sense as coach of the year. He won't win, but he did a pretty impressive job with that team. Very competitive in a very tough division. ... I think the 49ers are going to win in Green Bay next week, but it could go either way. I know their defense is better, and they should be able to run the ball on the Packers.
Packers at Bears: What a game. The stunning game-winning touchdown was right out of the 1993 Packers beating the Lions in the playoffs with a last-minute bomb from Favre to Sharpe. Couldn't believe it could happen, couldn't believe Cobb was so wide open. No excuse for it. ... The Alshon Jeffery non-TD in this game just ticks me off. A classic example of the NFL truism that any play the ends within a yard of the goal line either way will be ruled short by officials scared to call a touchdown that isn't. Maybe it didn't matter, although it did cost the Bears a timeout that they wouldn't have had to use if Jeffery had been correctly ruled to have scored. ... Big game for Matt Forte, he's great. A shame it was wasted. ... Huge game for Jordy Nelson, too, who looked like the best wide receiver in the game even if he was probably only third or fourth.
Bills at Patriots: Safe to say it was a big surprise that LeGarrette Blount was so huge for New England down the stretch. Always liked the guy during his nice rookie season, thought the Bucs didn't give him enough of a fair shake after that. Don't imagine he'll do much of anything in the playoffs, but I guess if San Diego can upset Cincinnati next week, he'll face a soft run defense (either Indy or K.C.) in the divisional round, so maybe.
Bucs at Saints: Suspect the Saints were rooting for the Cowboys last night, as that was the road game which would have been eminently winnable for them. They're not quite as promising in an early January game in Philadelphia. Nice win for them yesterday, but they're a different animal on the road.
Broncos at Raiders: Thought it was a little odd that Manning got a seat after breaking Drew Brees' yardage record by a single yard. Haven't these guys ever heard of stat changes? There's gotta be a Saints fan (or maybe Drew Brees himself) watching a tape of yesterday's game looking for a forward pass that should have been ruled a lateral or some careless ball placement giving Manning an extra yard. Nothing else to say on this one, but I think it's Manning's and Denver's year, at least to get to the Super Bowl. Can't see anyway they drop a playoff game to what the AFC will be able to send to Mile High this year.
Kansas City at Chargers: Shocking that Kansas City made such a game of this one without any starters on the field. Just goes to show that San Diego's defense is pretty poor, and their offense didn't have quite as much urgency as it should have until late in the game. Twice San Diego should have won with a touchdown when they settled for field goals; not surprising their defense could/should have lost it for them. Lucky Chargers. But good for them, and good for Ryan Mathews and Philip Rivers (and Keenan Allen), all of whom had very impressive seasons. Especially impressed by Mathews, and Allen looks like a guy who will be the No. 1 there for a long time. ... You know how leading up to Week 17 there are always these things about "Such and such needs a win or a tie to clinch a playoff spot." We're always like, right, a tie! But this game very nearly ended in a tie, which would have been enough to get the Chargers into the playoffs. A playoff clinching tie, I'm guessing that's never actually happened.
Eagles at Cowboys: I'll refrain from any Orton/Romo jokes. Dallas' defense played a lot better than expected and Orton, all things considered, did respectably, up until that terrible last throw. Another year, another tough Week 17 loss for the Cowboys. What can you say? Their defense needs to be better, their quarterbacks need to be better in the clutch in close games, the playcalling needs to be better...hmm, maybe Jason Garrett should be fired. Bottom line, it shouldn't really have come down to Dallas needing to win this game; it was the Green Bay that killed them.
Quick look at next week, I think Cincinnati is the only sure thing at home. I could see the other three road teams not only winning but doing so by a touchdown. Which I guess is why people love the NFL playoffs. Or is it for Playoff fantasy football? I will probably get into a league or two and report back to you later in the week.