ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Who should be the top pick in a playoff fantasy league?
ERIC CATURIA
When taking part in postseason fantasy football formats, owners with the first selection may consider a running back, as in drafts prior to the regular season. In order to maximize output, the focus lands on backs with the potential for four playoff tilts in their team's road to the Super Bowl, unless a player holding a first-round bye is so overwhelming productive, and his path littered with cakewalks, that an appearance in the title game is in the cards. After some pondering, a player does emerge with most of the boxes checked off: Peyton Manning. The weather is the prime concern that comes to mind, but he seemed to quell demons from the past during a five-game stretch from Weeks 11 to 15, when he boasted a 14:4 TD:INT ratio across three home contests and two others in cold conditions (at New England and Kansas City). The Broncos suffered defeat in two of those matchups to the Patriots and Chargers -- possible foes on the AFC side of the bracket that boasted the 10th and 11th scoring defenses, respectively, in 2013 -- but he still tossed a pair of scores in each outing. No matter who advances to face the Broncos in front of their faithful fans, three formidable contests lay before Manning and his teammates, with the season coming to a close at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, spurring consternation and thoughts that a running back (i.e. Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy) is the correct call at the top. Fantasy participants should remain stoic in their choice of Manning, though, and because RBs will be hard to come by as the draft progresses, matching him up with one of his talented receivers, be it Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker, at the end of the second round is among the safest bets to ensure fruitful results in this endeavor.
Caturia is a writer/editor of NFL, MLB, and NBA content for RotoWire. He can be found on Twitter @etcat30.
JAKE CIELY
It all comes down to who you think will be in the Super Bowl. I'm sticking with my preseason picks of the Seahawks and Broncos, so it comes down to just two men: Peyton Manning and Marshawn Lynch. The safe pick is Lynch given he's a running back, the Seahawks are nearly unstoppable at home and Manning has his playoff woes. However, and I am a huge proponent of waiting on quarterbacks until late in regular drafts, I'm going Manning. He dominated the fantasy season, and I believe the Broncos can win it all. I'll take the one-week goose egg in anticipation of what Manning can do in three games. I will say though, if you want a boom/bust pick that may run the gauntlet of four games... the Packers and Aaron Rodgers have done it before... just saying.
Ciely oversees the fantasy football staff for Football.com and assists with social media, including Twitter and Facebook. He is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. He started his fantasy sports career with his own blog and eventually became the Managing Editor at RotoExperts.com. He’s also a poker enthusiast, which is why you see many poker references, including his nickname “All In Kid.” Jake has also introduced new metrics to fantasy football analysis.
MIKE NAZAREK
It would be tough to bypass Broncos QB Peyton Manning, but a close second would be Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
IAN ALLAN
With most of these various postseason competitions, you kind of need to have the big player on the team that wins it. With that in mind, the two players who bubble to the top for me (depending on scoring system) are Peyton Manning and Marshawn Lynch. They’re just the smart, logical choices — especially Manning. But I’m not crazy about either guy. With Lynch, the schedule isn’t ideal. He opens with a bye, then might have San Francisco (tough run defense) and Carolina (even better run defense). Manning has tended to drop significantly in the postseason. He’s 9-11 in the playoffs, including just a 2-5 record since his Super Bowl win over the Bears. Can Manning win three playoff games in a row in cold weather? Kansas City’s defense was good in spurts against him at Mile High; that could be his first game. Then he’d probably face New England, which gave him a lot of trouble earlier in the year. Super Bowl might be against Seattle, which is very good against the pass.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
ALAN SATTERLEE
This seems like a slam-dunk no-brainer: Peyton Manning to me. I love playing in playoff drafts (and need to get my list together which will be posted at Fantasy Football Warehouse soon) and I typically like to draft players with first-round byes early (assuming you think they will fulfill their Super Bowl run), and then fill in around that (and with 8 teams as we play with, every one can have a Week 1 QB, kicker, defense). Without finalizing my list yet, load up on Broncos and Seahawks in my opinion.
Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
MICAH JAMES
As much as I think Marshawn Lynch will be a key part of Seattle's playoff run, I would have to select Peyton Manning as my number-one overall choice for a playoff league. I realize that he'll miss the Wild Card round, but with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs the Broncos are in an optimal position to finally put last season's loss to the Ravens behind them and make it to this year's big game. All season Manning has been the most consistent and most productive quarterback, and I don't see that changing in the playoffs, even if the weather is cold, and he'd be my first pick.
James, the FFMagicMan, won the FSTA Accuracy Rankings Challenge in 2012, finishing first out of 61 expert entries with an unprecedented Top-9 finish in each of the four measured skill positions. You can frequently hear him on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and every week on his fantasy football podcast, Trick Plays, with co-host Coach Dennis Esser. Find James on Twitter and on Facebook, and check his website every week for the latest up-to-date player rankings.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I know that Peyton Manning is the clear answer. The guy dominated the NFL this year and starts for the clear favorite, so he's the best bet in the field to play three games. Only one team gets him though, so let's think about who could go second. In that case, I'm looking at running backs likely to play two or more games, who to me are Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles. I think Kansas City will win in Indy this week and then have a tiny chance of upsetting the Broncos; at worst you should get two very good games out of Charles. Same deal with Lynch; Seattle should win that first game against Philadelphia, and have a decent shot of winning its second game, also at home, and getting to the Super Bowl. At wide receiver and tight end, there's plenty of depth, so I wouldn't bother grabbing one of those players early (although if I did, they'd be Broncos).
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.