The most notable name on the various injury reports this week is Pierre Thomas. He's out with a chest injury. This will result in more touches for New Orleans' other running backs -- Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson.
Sproles, in particular, should play more. The short dumpoff pass to the running back is a huge part of that offense, and he's a much better receiver than either Ingram or Robinson. Ingram is a liability in the passing game. Robinson caught about a dozen balls in the preseason, but they haven't used him as a pass catcher in the regular season at all.
In the regular season, Thomas caught 77 passes and Sproles caught 71. About 9 passes per game. So with Thomas out, we see Sproles as very likely to catch 6-8 passes.
We don't think Ingram's role will expand greatly, because he really doesn't fit that offense (because of his problems in the passing game). As well as Robinson played in the preseason, he very likely will finish with better overall numbers than Ingram on Saturday. Robinson is a lot more like Thomas.
Back on Thursday (in the Weekly), I had the backs this way:
Thomas, 61 yards (33 run, 28 rec), 28% chance of TD
Sproles, 48 yards (14 run, 34 rec), 29% chance of TD
Ingram, 23 yards (20 run, 3 rec), 15% chance of TD
Robinson, 14 yards (14 run, 0 rec), 4% chance of TD
Now I've got them this way:
Sproles, 66 yards (22 run, 43 rec) 36% chance of TD
Ingram, 40 yards (28 run, 12 rec), 20% chance of TD
Robinson, 34 yards (25 run, 9 rec), 19% chance of TD
Best of luck to all in their various competitions.
--Ian Allan