Sometimes there are a lot of surprises, or at least one major surprise, in the divisional round. Other times, like this weekend, all four games go about as expected. I picked Carolina, but wasn't exactly surprised to see favored San Francisco get the win. The biggest surprise, I think, was that only Indianapolis-New England was a really entertaining game -- for three quarters, anyway -- though it ended up with the biggest score differential. That was the one where the losing team actually did enough on offense for much of the game to make you think, just maybe. Until they got blown away in the final quarter.
New Orleans at Seattle: Quick question, which I ask as someone with Percy Harvin in a dynasty league. Do you think he helped or hurt his dynasty value on Saturday? On the one hand, it was clear they wanted to get the ball into his hands as a major element of the game plan. On the other hand, he got hurt again. I think he touched the ball four times and was either knocked out or nearly knocked out on three of those chances. There was at least one cheap shot in there, but whatever. The guy is tough, but toughness and durability are not the same thing. He's an explosive, talented guy; a difference-maker. Can he finish a game he starts? That's the question. ... The blueprint for shutting down New Orleans' offense is there. Some teams don't have the personnel to do it, but you can bet the game tape of the Saints' two trips to Seattle will be popular with other NFC South teams.
Mark Ingram seemed to have taken a big step forward the last few weeks. So naturally he lost a fumble early which set up Seattle's only touchdown before the final few minutes of the game. Who knows if the game turns out differently if he doesn't put that ball on the turf. For me, Khiry Robinson is the Saints back I'm looking at first next season. ... Dynasty wise, the guys I'm looking at for these teams besides Harvin are Robinson and Stills from the Saints. I think New Orleans goes through some major offseason changes. A couple of their veterans, and I'm thinking specifically of Lance Moore, short-armed some passes on Saturday. Others (Sproles) don't look like the same players they've been for their run. Gonna be some turnover.
Indianapolis at New England: My wife commented that I seemed a lot more opinionated watching this game than many others. And it's true, because the Colts are just really frustrating to watch sometimes. I've been watching them play all season, so presumably their coaches have, too. So how is it that I know that Trent Richardson and Donald Brown aren't going to be effective running the ball near the goal line out of a standard running formation, and they don't? And that throwing a jump ball up to Coby Fleener as if he's Jimmy Graham isn't going to result in a touchdown? Now, Indianapolis wasn't going to win this game. Their defense was too poor and too easily walked all over. But when the game was 21-12 and the Colts drove easily down the field for a chance to cut it to 21-19, they lost it on that ridiculous sequence where they handed it off to bad running backs and tried a fade to an ordinary tight end with no real chance of getting 7 points. Stupid, annoying, losing.
Andrew Luck threw 4 interceptions, some of which were his fault. But I still saw a player who is soon going to be the scariest quarterback in the league, a guy who can make some amazing throws and -- if the coaching staff lets him -- beat you with his running, too. He's great. ... I'm not going to pick on Dan Dierdorf for that whole safety thing. It was blatantly obvious that a safety was New England's best-case scenario, and Dierdorf is retiring for a reason. I'll just move on. ... I am kind of glad for LeGarrette Blount. I liked him as a rookie and it's nice to see him running with that kind of intensity, which he certainly didn't have in Tampa Bay last season. He's a limited player, but in the right situation, which he's obviously in, he can have a nice career.
San Francisco at Carolina: I thought Carolina would win this game, and certainly, if they'd made more of their early chances, they could have. To keep trying the same quarterback sneak near the goal line; not surprising that didn't work out. Bootleg? Quarterback draw? (They tried one of those and it got stopped by a great defensive play.) Not getting in on those chances, that was the game. And Anquan Boldin, who I unwisely left on the bench in a playoff league.
I think it's funny that some are giving Colin Kaepernick heat for doing Cam Newton's Superman thing after his touchdown. So, Newton doing a choreographed celebration after a touchdown which kind of shows up the opposing team is fine, but Kaepernick doing the same thing to show up Newton isn't? Whatever. All of the NFC teams playing this weekend have some attitude/animosity/rivalry/yappiness to them. It's a little tiring, but none of the teams out there can really complain about another team having some hot dog in their game. ... Nice game for Steve Smith, early on anyway. But when your only noteworthy wideout is 35 in May, that's an issue. And Carolina's main running backs continually disappoint. The team needs more offensive playmakers or there's no way it's going any further.
San Diego at Denver: Thought the Ryan Mathews injury would be big, and it was. Denver controlled things throughout the first half, but San Diego being unable to run the ball was a large part of why. Suddenly the thing they wanted to do and had been doing for the past couple of months wasn't a real option for them. They came back with the pass and made things interesting late, but I think they lost the game early. Only Denver's curious conservatism enabled them to hang around. ... Nice year for Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, Keenan Allen. I though Antonio Gates looked pretty much toast down the stretch. Had a drop late yesterday that would have been critical had Rivers not found Allen on fourth down. Course, Ladarius Green also dropped a catchable ball. I could see the Chargers moving on from Gates, though. And they clearly need another wideout. Vincent Brown didn't do anything, Eddie Royal is a free agent, so is Danario Alexander (plus he can't stay healthy). But a good year for the Chargers.
That finish, I think, was the glimmer of what might do Denver in. Is it a coincidence that when Peyton Manning did beat the Patriots in the playoffs, the Colts fell behind and he had to aggressively sling the team back into it? John Fox also has a long history of coaching not to lose rather than to win. I can absolutely see the Broncos losing next week's game on the coaching end of things, or not playing aggressively to score enough or put New England away, should they get a lead. I hope Manning is thinking about this stuff. Play to win, and you'll have a much better chance of doing so. ... A quick note on Montee Ball, who we ranked as the top dynasty rookie in last year's magazine. He didn't really help anyone during the season, but he's looked pretty good over the last couple of months. Not, obviously, as impressive as Eddie Lacy, but in the same discussion with LeVeon Bell and Giovani Bernard. I think if I were redrafting things right now, Lacy would be first, and I'd be torn at the No. 2 spot. Ball had one patient, powerful run yesterday that was about the best I've seen out him all season. We'll see if Knowshon Moreno re-signs with Denver, but I think Ball will push to start either way. Looks like he has the team's confidence at last.
So next week we get the two games that probably most everyone wanted when the playoffs started. Plenty of time to look closely at them. I see that Denver is favored by 5, which is very surprising to me. Seattle is favored by a field goal, 3.5, which seems about right. If I were betting, I'd take both underdogs to cover if not outright win. Couple of entertaining games coming up.