Two pretty good football games yesterday, although as is so often the case, one was great and one didn't quite live up to expectations. I did think that betting the under on Denver-New England made sense; that it was more likely to be a tighter, more defensive game than the back and forth shootout many were calling for. What I didn't anticipate was New England simply failing to show up. But there are two games to talk about before moving on to the big one, so let's get to it.
Broncos 26, Patriots 16. Presumably this will dispense the notion that the Patriots are some kind of dominant power running team and LeGarrette Blount is a franchise back. I mean, they're a good running team and almost always have a successful running game, but that's because they lean on it against soft opposition and pile up huge numbers, and generally disregard it against better defenses. Blount ran all over the Bills and Colts; big deal. Not that he isn't a nice story, and it's not as if he had any kind of chance yesterday, but it's not a given that he's their Week 1 starter a year from now, or that he (or Ridley, or whoever else New England seems to roll with as its No. 1 in the preseason) will be any kind of fantasy steal.
Certainly the biggest early development in the game was the Wes Welker pick that knocked out Aqib Talib. I'm guessing his Patriots jersey isn't overly popular in New England for the forseeable future; forever, actually. I see that Bill Belichick is now ripping the hit as a deliberate attempt by Welker to injure Talib -- wow. "One of the worst plays I've ever seen, and that's all I'm going to say about that," he said. What more COULD you say? Talib's absence certainly made things easier for Demaryius Thomas, and Peyton Manning -- and it was easy. They marched up and down the field, playing keepaway, preventing New England from getting anything going; from getting anything even started. No chance to run the ball, not enough chances to throw it. When Denver wiped out half the third period with a touchdown drive to make it 20-3, the game was over. Brief moment of nervousness when Denver lined up that 54-yard field goal at 23-10; a miss there and maybe we've got a 23-17 game a few minutes later. But that moment came and went.
Tom Brady didn't play well. He missed some throws, held the ball too long on others, never looked fully into the game. Maybe things are different if his No. 2 receiver isn't Austin Collie, what with Danny Amendola failing to show up all year and the team having nothing at tight end, but there's a personnel failing there; it's not like they didn't have all offseason to maybe figure out something better behind Rob Gronkowski, or not place so much on the plates of rookie wideouts. When New England was winning with the likes of Deion Branch and David Givens they were geniuses and Brady was an MVP, so if they're losing while counting on rookies and undrafted guys and cast-offs, well, that's how the NFL usually works, so it's not bad luck.
Great game played by Peyton Manning, and a couple of really nice runs from Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, who really emerged late in the year. I think we'll see more of that running in the Super Bowl; more trying to work Seattle's defense on the ground than throwing on the Legion of Boom and so forth. Anyway, good for the Broncos. I think we'll see the Patriots kind of go back to the drawing board in the offseason, adding a big name on offense or two (Blount and Amendola last offseason don't really count). Gotta surround Brady with better talent at this point, or another AFC East title followed by a playoff exit to the first really good team they face is in store.
Seahawks 23, 49ers 17. I'm gonna get this Richard Sherman stuff out of the way first, since it's all people are talking about. (I'm sure there are lots of stories around about how he shrewdly is taking the pressure off of Russell Wilson and his teammates by putting a bullseye on his own back or whatever.) I just have two comments. One, I have long been a believer in the old, "When you win, you don't have to say anything." No trash-talking, no choke signs, just smile and let the scoreboard speak for itself. So, that's me.
Number 2, and this is not entirely Sherman's fault, it's a shame that the minutes and hours and day after a great game that put the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, his postgame comments are all people are talking about. It takes away from the huge plays by Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Jermaine Kearse, and the flat-out awesome game by Marshawn Lynch. I have a special fondness for Lynch since when my dynasty league started up I drew the third pick in the initial rookie draft, and the top two were Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson. I took Lynch, so I'm glad to see him doing so well, even though it was years after I traded him away in disgust before it happened.
So yeah. Sherman can say and do whatever he wants, and I realize he's actually a smart guy (wrote a sharp anti-Goodell column in Sports Illustrated a few months back). But it strikes me as not only unnecessary (we all know you're a great player, and that was a great, game-saving play you made) but also kind of unfair to your teammates, who aren't getting much attention today. On the bright side, we have two full weeks to learn all about where Russell Wilson went to grade school and what kind of muffin Marshawn Lynch likes best and whether Percy Harvin reads Percy Jackson books, so hooray.
I think the game was about what everyone expected, right? (Aside from Wilson rushing for zero yards -- that was a shock.) The quarterbacks threw a couple of brilliant touchdowns, there were some big defensive stops and turnovers, and the game came down to a final end zone play where either somebody in the secondary or some receiver was going to decide it. The throw wasn't awful (not as bad as another of Kaepernick's interceptions, anyway), it was just a great play by Sherman. (Just ask him. Or don't.) Seattle got a little fortunate on a fourth-down touchdown after passing up a field goal. Its run defense really stepped up big-time against Frank Gore.
Brutal loss for San Francisco, not only because Colin Kaepernick made a couple of gaffes down the stretch (as in last year's Super Bowl, but I still think he's a great young quarterback), but because Navarro Bowman was their best defensive player this season, and he got his knee shredded in late January. And of course the whole three straight seasons ending in the final moments on one of the NFL's biggest stages. Still, it was a great season, and they've got to come back a little bit stronger and maybe get that game at home next year. Don't think they have anything to hang their heads about.
Initial thought on the Super Bowl is that Denver will win by a touchdown. Seattle isn't as scary on the road, I kind of think all the Sherman stuff will work against them in the whole emotion/intangibles arena (if you place any stock in that), and I think yesterday was the real obstacle for Peyton Manning -- now that he's actually back in the Super Bowl, a huge, dominant game is likely in store.
But we've all got a couple of weeks to change our minds.