Peyton Manning is the clear No. 1 quarterback this week. No surprise there. But Tom Brady looks like a better option than either of the NFC starters. Ian Allan explains as part of his Week 20 preview.

Initially my thought was to put together a big preview and post it as one big article. But now that I'm dragging through this thing and it's clear that I won't finish it before the end of the day, let me start throwing it up in chunks. I'll post them as I go.

First up are the quarterbacks. Once I'm done with all the rankings, we'll load a customizable stat projection file onto the site.

OVERVIEW:
The Seahawks and 49ers have split the last two years, with the home team winning every time – 42-13 and 29-3 in Seattle, and 13-6 and 19-17 in San Francisco (the 19-17 game, with Phil Dawson hitting a late field goal, was played in Week 14). The Patriots are 2-0 against Denver the last two years, but both of those games were played at Foxborough – 31-21 early last year, and 34-31 in overtime in Week 12. … Weather won’t be a factor. In Denver, they’re expecting a high of 58 degrees, with no rains and winds under 10 mph. In Seattle, the high is expected to be 51 degrees, with only a 20 percent chance of rain and winds of 6 mph. … Denver is a 5-point favorite against New England, with an over-under of 55 – suggesting a score of about 30-25. Seattle is a 3-point favorite against San Francisco, with an over-under of 39 – some something more like 21-18. And those kind of ballpark scores look about right.

QUARTERBACKS:
I think everybody will have them in the order of Manning-Brady-Wilson-Kaepernick, and I think that’s fair. The young guys have the mobility, which is nice, but they don’t pass the ball the way the Hall of Famers do. Russell Wilson has started four games against San Francisco, and he hasn’t passed for 200 yards in any of them. Just 1 TD in each of the two games this year. While the Seahawks beat San Francisco 29-3 back in Week 2, that game was no blowout. Wilson was running for his life and really couldn’t do much of anything. He finished 8 of 19 for 142 yards, and he was sacked 4 times. Wilson was more impressive in the rematch at Candlestick, going 15 of 25 for 199 yards. Now the whole Seattle offense has kind of bogged down. It’s gone five games in a row without scoring more than 2 TDs, and Wilson has been under 200 yards in all but one of those games. San Francisco’s defense had the hiccups late in the year against Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, letting those guys pile up lots of yards, but it’s played well in the postseason against Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think Wilson is getting up to 2 TDs. He’s got nice mobility, but he’s a passer first and runner second. He averaged 34 rushing yards in the regular season, and he’s gone for 10, 29, 33 and 2 yards in his four starts against San Francisco. … Colin Kaepernick should run for the most yards of any of the quarterbacks left. He’s mobile, and he’s been looking to take off on his own more recently. Maybe he runs for 40 yards, and maybe he takes one in on his own (he’s run for 2 TDs in his last four games). But also tough to see him putting up anything more than about 200 yards and a touchdown as a passer. Kaepernick passed for only 200 yards per game in the regular season, and this is probably the league’s best pass defense he’s facing. Kaepernick is 1-2 against Seattle, and he really hasn’t played all that well in any of those games. He’s thrown for 244, 127 and 175 yards, with 2 TDs and 5 interceptions. He’s been close to 50 percent completions in all of those games. As a runner, he’s gone for 31, 87 and 31 yards in those three Seattle games. With Wilson-Kaepernick, we expect both teams will play it close to the vest – trying to avoid the turnover that gives the other team a short field. Once one team gets a lead, that’s when you’ll see the other one reluctantly start to take open up its offense and take more chances. … Peyton Manning put up the pinball numbers in the regular season – 55 TDs and 342 yards per game. That’s over 3 TD passes per game. Only five teams were able to hold him under 3 TD passes, which is hard to believe. But these are the playoffs, and everything gets tougher in the postseason. Defenses are better, and officials tend to allow more contact with wide receivers. Manning is only 10-11 as a postseason starter, and his numbers definitely have tended to drop – 34 TDs and 22 interceptions in those 21 games. So just 1.6 TD passes per game as a playoff quarterback. Manning played well enough last week, completing over 69 percent, but he finished with only 230 passing yards, his 2nd-lowest total of the year. And just 2 TDs, which is low for him. Now, as luck would have it, he runs into his old nemesis. Bill Belichick has been able to concoct some coverages that have worked against him. In the earlier game at Foxborough, Manning had his worst game of the season – 19 of 36 for only 150 yards, with 2 TDs and 1 interception. That game was weather affected. It was officially logged at 22 degrees and with 22 mph winds. He was also working without his tight end. Nevertheless, it’s worrying. The Patriots have some nice coverage guys back there. But Belichick is a worthy adversary, it’s far from accurate to suggest that he has Manning’s number or anything. He’s thrown at least 2 TDs in five straight against New England, and he was over 320 yards in three straight prior to Week 12. The home team, by the way, has won the last five in this series.

Bottom line: there’s no way we’re interested in dropping Manning below any of these other quarterbacks. He’s probably not going to throw for 340 yards and 4 TDs, but he might. And of all these quarterbacks, he definitely has the best chance to maybe sneak up to 3 TDs. The Broncos probably will run the ball a lot more in this game than they usually do, so we think something along the lines of 280 yards and 2 TDs makes sense. And if he doesn’t throw 2, it’s probably more likely to be 3 TDs than just 1. … And that leaves Tom Brady. Not sure why I’m writing about him last, because he might be the most intriguing of the three choices. Unlike Wilson and Kaepernick, he’s not a runner. And the Patriots have been pounding the ball on the ground recently, limiting his workload. Three weeks in a row, they’ve run for over 140 yards, and Brady has thrown for under 200 yards in all of those games, with just 1, 1 and 0 touchdowns. But the Broncos will do a better job against the run; they saw the Patriots run for 6 TDs last week against Indianapolis, and that no doubt got their attention. If the Broncos are putting up yards and points, that will force New England to be more aggressive. Or we might simply see New England come in and try something new. More so than any team in the league, they’re a team that is willing to completely change its personality. It will go power in one game, with multiple tight ends, then spread the field the next week and go with the short, quick passing game. Brady had maybe his best game of the season in the earlier meeting going 34 of 50 for 344 yards, with 3 TDs and no interceptions. Denver doesn’t have a great pass defense; only four teams allowed more passing yards in the regular season, and only six allowed more touchdowns. Broncos have allowed 31 TD passes in 17 games. Probably their best defensive player, Von Miller, is gone for the year, and now starting cornerback Chris Harris is out with a torn ACL. We’re thinking about 250-260 yards in about where Brady will finish up, with a good chance of getting up to 2 TDs. Not as good as Manning, but definitely better than Wilson or Kaepernick.

--Ian Allan