ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Without knowing where they'll end up, which star college quarterback do you believe will have the best NFL career?
JAKE CIELY
I'm not sold on any of the perceived top quarterbacks, but if I had to choose, I'd go with Bridgewater. I have serious doubts about Manziel and his success in the NFL. Manziel is exceptionally talented, but he falls back on that talent instead of going through his progressions at times. Now, he could learn to better handle pressure, but it's similar to Tebow (not the scrambling comparisons, but trying to change his throwing motion). You can try to teach the player, but sometimes, he will fall back on his instincts and poor decisions. As for Bortles, there is a concern with his under-pressure throwing. Too often, I saw Bortles throw off his back foot or while leaning back. That is going to lead to major issues and turnovers at the NFL level. Bridgewater may not have the ceiling of those two, but he is extremely accurate, shows great touch and has the NFL mental makeup to succeed quickly. I don't think Bridgewater's upside is much lower than Manziel and Bortles, and it's why I would put my stock in him.
Ciely oversees the fantasy football staff for Football.com and assists with social media, including Twitter and Facebook. He is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. He started his fantasy sports career with his own blog and eventually became the Managing Editor at RotoExperts.com. He’s also a poker enthusiast, which is why you see many poker references, including his nickname “All In Kid.” Jake has also introduced new metrics to fantasy football analysis.
DAVID DOREY
By all accounts Teddy Bridgewater is the best college player and first overall pick at this point. That would send him to Houston where Andre Johnson still has a couple of seasons left and DeAndre Hopkins could become a star with a talented quarterback to pair with. Any rookie – even first overall draft picks – are about 50/50 if they are going to meet expectations anyway. But Bridgewater at least gets the chance to go to a team that is bad enough to have a #1 pick and yet with the potential to bounce back in a hurry.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
BRYAN SWEET
All three of these quarterbacks have some question marks, making it difficult to predict who will be able to make the necessary adjustments to enjoy a successful NFL career. Manziel is knocked for his size and off-field transgressions, but has the arm and athletic ability to become a franchise QB. Bortles needs some coaching to improve his mechanics and footwork, but provides the ideal size for an NFL QB and has enough arm and athleticism to make him a viable franchise QB one or two years down the road. As for Bridgewater, the biggest concern surrounding him was his size, but many expect him to add weight leading up to the combine, and he has the frame to support it. Bridgewater has enough athleticism to make plays with his feet, but prefers to make plays with his arm. He has the arm strength to make all the NFL throws and has great pocket presence. In addition, when things break down, he has the ability to make accurate throws on the run. He is drawing comparisons to both Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, and rightfully so. For these reasons, I expect Bridgewater to have the most prolific NFL career of these three up-and-coming quarterbacks.
Sweet works with Alan Satterlee at FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
IAN ALLAN
They’re close enough, I think, that it will come down to where they’re playing — who’s coaching them, and who they’re playing with. For mobility, it’s definitely Manziel-Bortles-Bridgewater. The all have good mobility, I think. I saw Bridgewater take off a couple of times in his bowl game. But he’s not in the same class as the other two. Bortles is a big, fast power runner — in that Luck/Newton/Locker class as a runner. Manziel is a quick little scrambler with unusual ability to make plays on the move — more like Russell Wilson. As far as pure arm strength and accuracy and being a prototype quarterback, I think Bridgewater is No. 1. In his bowl game, I saw him make a lot of driving downfield throws -- “NFL throws” they call them. So I’ve got to put him ahead of Bortles, who had a couple of picks and other errors in his bowl against Baylor. On the year, Bridgewater had a 31-4 ratio of TDs to interceptions, versus 25-9 for Bortles. For the year, Bridgewater completed 71 percent, compared to 68 for Bortles. With Manziel, you have the plus of him playing SEC competition (which is more like the NFL). If you’re locking me in on just one, I will cast my lot with Manziel. I think he might be a mix of Russell Wilson’s body and Brett Favre’s head. Like Wilson, he’s got unusually large hands for a short guy.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
SAM HENDRICKS
Johnny "Football" Manziel intrigues me the most. His intangibles are off the chart and he could be the Texans #1 pick of 2014. Houston already has an established running game assuming Ben Tate stays too. Pairing Johnny Football with an aging Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Owen Daniels presents a great opportunity. But for the long term he has as good a chance of winning there as any of the others.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
CORY BONINI
Flip a coin! I'll tentatively and hesitantly rank them as 1) Teddy Bridgewater, 2) Blake Bortles, 3) Johnny Manziel. Bridgewater and Bortles are interchangeable based on what kind of system they ultimate run in the pros. Bortles has a lot of upside, and Bridgewater is the safest of the three. Manziel has that "it factor" you look for, but I fear he won't hold up physically in the NFL.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Completely free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com is property of USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
SCOTT SACHS
Oregon's Marcus Mariota is the QB I believe has the most upside. Just my opinion, of course, but he's the best I've seen since Luck. Too bad he's not available for my hometown Brownies in this draft, but they may [will?] struggle again in '14, so who knows? Quick look at other positions: At RB, OSU's Carlos Hyde has the look of an NFL stud right now--big, fast, powerful--with a nose for the end zone. At WR, Sammy Watkins looks catch-a-licious, as long as his off field antics tone down--which is a big if, right Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon? On the defense, hard to ignore Clowney, but he'll be boom or bust. Like a lot of these pampered guys with a false sense of entitlement, he needs to focus on learning the playbook and getting in shape--not worrying about their "brand", right RG3? All of the incoming/upcoming newbies need to learn that the NFL is a WE-league, not a ME-league.
Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering LIVE Talk/Text/Email consulting & advice. Winner of Fantasy Football Index's 2012 Experts Poll & 2011 Mock Auction League, Scott can be found at http://perfectseasonffb.com/.
ERIC CATURIA
The flow of quarterback talent to the NFL continues unabated, and the 2014 draft is slated to include such franchise bedrocks as Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Johnny Manziel. Bridgewater, a Louisville product, boasts a skill set that includes -- to borrow the term of a RotoWire colleague -- appropriate velocity and accuracy, with the simultaneous ability to fire passes into tight spaces as well as a deft tosses into the perfect spot on the field. While somewhat undersized at 6-3, 205, he's been projected as the top QB for months, but breathing down his neck for the honor of No. 1 pick are Bortles and Manziel, both of whom declared early as well for the professional ranks. I must admit some naivete regarding Bortles, who I was thoroughly unaware of before his tour de force performance in this year's Fiesta Bowl, but his combination of ideal size (6-4, 230) and competence in the pocket is sure to have scouts drooling in the coming months, thus guaranteeing his selection in the early going come May 8. For the past two seasons, though, my eye has been focused on Manziel, whose style of play is best described as idiosyncratic. The recent paths blazed by Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are seemingly parallel ones to Manziel's, as their elusive natures allow for breathless highlights that sustain possessions. Throw out Manziel's stature -- six feet is a generous measurement -- and his savvy, evasiveness, and touch portend particular prosperity in an NFL hell-bent on protecting quarterbacks at all cost. As a result, this worshiper at The Church of Manziel believes.
Caturia is a writer/editor of NFL, MLB, and NBA content for RotoWire. He can be found on Twitter @etcat30.
ANDY RICHARDSON
Pretty early to say -- it's too early to even say who will be the best quarterback from the 2013 class yet. But I'm a little concerned about Manziel, who's not only short but just looks like a smaller guy, and the way he throws his body around, looks iffy to hold up. (It will be interesting to see if teams disregard size concerns just because Russell Wilson is a star; I don't think they should.) At this point, I've been most impressed by what I've seen out of Teddy Bridgewater, who seems to have the head, physical tools, and poise to be a quality NFL starter quickly. If he ends up in Houston or Jacksonville, he'll also be in a decent spot to be successful right away, with some talent around him. I like Blake Bortles, but I worry there's some Jake Locker to him, and it might be a few years (and landing in the right situation) for him to properly develop.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.