Extra production as a receiver and a much softer opposing defense. Ian Allan ranks Knowshon Moreno higher than Beast Mode for this weekend's games.
Sorry for the delay on this one. I had some other stuff I got involved with today (and had to hurry through this last one a little). But I think it will work.
RUNNING BACKS:
At running back, I think it comes down to whether you want Marshawn Lynch or Knowshon Moreno. Lynch is a better runner, but he’s playing against a much better defense. Moreno brings a lot more to the table as a pass catcher but will be spelled more.
The 49ers are tough against the run, but Lynch has had success against them. Five straight games, in fact, he’s either scored or gone over 100 yards. In the very first game of the Jim Harbaugh era (down at Candlestick), Lynch got held to 33 yards on 13 carries. Since then, he’s been money.
| Lynch against 49ers since 2011 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
| at S.F. | 33 | 14 | 47 | 0 |
| at Sea. | 107 | 24 | 131 | 1 |
| at S.F. | 103 | 13 | 116 | 0 |
| at Sea. | 111 | 19 | 130 | 2 |
| at Sea. | 98 | 22 | 120 | 3 |
| at S.F. | 72 | 0 | 72 | 1 |
So while it seems strange (given how well San Francisco plays the run), we’re guessing Lynch probably will run for 75-plus yards. He’s not a big factor as a receiver. He’s averaging 19 receiving yards, but he’s had more than 12 yards in only one of his last seven games.
The Seahawks have scored 16 rushing touchdowns in 17 games. The 49ers have allowed only 6 rushing touchdowns in their last 15 – you saw some really good goal-line defense at Carolina last week. As those numbers kind of meet in the middle, we’re figuring there’s about a 70-80 percent chance Seattle runs for a touchdown in this game, and Lynch would be by far the most likely guy to score it.
Knowshon Moreno is right there with Lynch. This is the guy, after all, who ran for 224 yards and a touchdown at New England in Week 12. What if the Patriots use some kind of defensive technic (extra defensive backs or whatever) that causes the Broncos to counter by using the run a lot more than usual. Definitely possible.
Moreno ain’t no Lynch. Other than that game, he averaged 56 rushing yards per game. He’s a notch below. But the matchup must be considered. The Patriots allowed 134 rushing yards per game in the regular season – 39 more than the 49ers. The gap between the defenses is a lot wider than the gap between Lynch and Moreno.
And Moreno catches passes; he averaged 34 receiving yards per game in the regular season – 15 more than Lynch. The Broncos have been spelling him more often recently with Montee Ball. We’re guessing Ball will get about a third of the work. But for total yards, Moreno should finish ahead of Lynch.
Touchdowns also look pretty similar. Denver has scored 17 rushing touchdowns – one more than the Seahawks. The Patriots have allowed 11 (one fewer than San Francisco), but the 49ers struggled early in the year. The Broncos are right there with the Seahawks for rushing touchdowns.
The 49ers will feature Frank Gore, and he’s a pivotal guy in that game. San Francisco can’t win without getting him going. The Seahawks aren’t as good against the run as the 49ers, but they’re tough. They ranked 7th against the run in the regular season, and they’ve allowed only 5 rushing touchdowns in 17 games.
Gore has two games with over 110 rushing yards against Seattle the last two years, but they’ve both been at Candlestick. In his last two at CenturyLink, he’s carried 6 times for 28 yards and 9 times for 16 yards. He’s more likely than any of the other running backs to lose a rushing touchdown to his quarterback.
Gore averaged 71 rushing yards in the regular season, with 9 TDs. He’s not a factor as a receiver – just 8 yards per game.
The Patriots have the three-headed monster. LeGarrette Blount will be their main runner. Stevan Ridley will also be mixed in; he’ll probably get more than half as many carries. (Blount has carried 24 times two games in a row, but Ridley has had 12 and 14 attempts in those games). And Shane Vereen will be their third-down back. He’s been under 20 rushing yards five games in a row, but he’s a guy who might have 40-50 receiving yards. Ridley and Blount don’t catch passes at all.
Blount has gone over 160 rushing yards two games in a row, but we don’t see that kind of impact. Both of those games were against bottom-10 run defenses. Denver ranked 8th against the run in the regular season, and they’re aware that New England’s ground game must be respected. We think a team forecast of about 120 rushing yards in more in line for the Patriots.
So rankings should look something like this …
| RUNNING BACKS (Standard league) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Runner | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Pts |
| 1 | DEN | Knowshon Moreno | 26 | 75 | 101 | .79 | 14.8 |
| 2 | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 79 | 95 | .70 | 13.7 |
| 3 | NE | LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 70 | 71 | .55 | 10.4 |
| 4 | NE | Shane Vereen | 47 | 16 | 63 | .41 | 8.8 |
| 5 | SF | Frank Gore | 6 | 55 | 61 | .42 | 8.6 |
| 6 | DEN | Montee Ball | 9 | 48 | 56 | .39 | 7.9 |
| 7 | NE | Stevan Ridley | 1 | 33 | 34 | .16 | 4.3 |
| 8 | SEA | Robert Turbin | 3 | 13 | 17 | .09 | 2.2 |
| 9 | SF | Kendall Hunter | 1 | 14 | 15 | .08 | 2.0 |
| 10 | NE | James Develin | 3 | 1 | 4 | .07 | 0.8 |
| 11 | SF | LaMichael James | 1 | 3 | 4 | .06 | 0.8 |
| 12 | SF | Antony Dixon | 4 | 2 | 6 | .03 | 0.8 |
| 13 | NE | Brandon Bolden | 1 | 3 | 3 | .02 | 0.4 |
| 14 | SEA | Derrick Coleman | 2 | 0 | 3 | .02 | 0.4 |
| 15 | DEN | Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 2 | .01 | 0.2 |
| 16 | SEA | Michael Robinson | 1 | 0 | 2 | .01 | 0.2 |
| 17 | SEA | Christine Michael | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0.1 |
| 18 | DEN | C.J. Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0.0 |
| RUNNING BACKS (PPR league) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Runner | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Pts |
| 1 | DEN | Knowshon Moreno | 26 | 75 | 101 | .79 | 17.8 |
| 2 | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 79 | 95 | .70 | 15.6 |
| 3 | NE | Shane Vereen | 47 | 16 | 63 | .41 | 14.0 |
| 4 | NE | LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 70 | 71 | .55 | 10.6 |
| 5 | SF | Frank Gore | 6 | 55 | 61 | .42 | 9.5 |
| 6 | DEN | Montee Ball | 9 | 48 | 56 | .39 | 9.1 |
| 7 | NE | Stevan Ridley | 1 | 33 | 34 | .16 | 4.4 |
| 8 | SEA | Robert Turbin | 3 | 13 | 17 | .09 | 2.6 |
| 9 | SF | Kendall Hunter | 1 | 14 | 15 | .08 | 2.1 |
| 10 | SF | Antony Dixon | 4 | 2 | 6 | .03 | 1.4 |
| 11 | NE | James Develin | 3 | 1 | 4 | .07 | 1.2 |
| 12 | SF | LaMichael James | 1 | 3 | 4 | .06 | .9 |
| 13 | SEA | Derrick Coleman | 2 | 0 | 3 | .02 | .7 |
| 14 | NE | Brandon Bolden | 1 | 3 | 3 | .02 | .5 |
| 15 | SEA | Michael Robinson | 1 | 0 | 2 | .01 | .4 |
| 16 | DEN | Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 2 | .01 | .4 |
| 17 | SEA | Christine Michael | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .1 |
| 18 | DEN | C.J. Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .0 |
| RUNNING BACKS (TD-only) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Runner | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Pts |
| 1 | DEN | Knowshon Moreno | 26 | 75 | 101 | .79 | 4.7 |
| 2 | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 79 | 95 | .70 | 4.2 |
| 3 | NE | LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 70 | 71 | .55 | 3.3 |
| 4 | NE | Shane Vereen | 47 | 16 | 63 | .41 | 2.5 |
| 5 | SF | Frank Gore | 6 | 55 | 61 | .42 | 2.5 |
| 6 | DEN | Montee Ball | 9 | 48 | 56 | .39 | 2.3 |
| 7 | NE | Stevan Ridley | 1 | 33 | 34 | .16 | 1.0 |
| 8 | SEA | Robert Turbin | 3 | 13 | 17 | .09 | .5 |
| 9 | SF | Kendall Hunter | 1 | 14 | 15 | .08 | .5 |
| 10 | NE | James Develin | 3 | 1 | 4 | .07 | .4 |
| 11 | SF | LaMichael James | 1 | 3 | 4 | .06 | .4 |
| 12 | SF | Antony Dixon | 4 | 2 | 6 | .03 | .2 |
| 13 | NE | Brandon Bolden | 1 | 3 | 3 | .02 | .1 |
| 14 | SEA | Derrick Coleman | 2 | 0 | 3 | .02 | .1 |
| 15 | DEN | Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 2 | .01 | .1 |
| 16 | SEA | Michael Robinson | 1 | 0 | 2 | .01 | .1 |
| 17 | SEA | Christine Michael | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .0 |
| 18 | DEN | C.J. Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .0 |
-- Ian Allan