Fantasy News

January 22, 2014

Super Bowl player rankings

First take on individual player board

Setting aside weather for now and assuming a 26-23 Denver win, Ian Allan puts together his list of every skill-position player from both teams.

Here’s a first take on the individual numbers I expect in Super Bowl XLVIII. (Let’s see … X L V I I I … Yes. Got that right. Can we just start calling it Super Bowl 48?).

This is just a first draft. A week from now, we’ll have some idea what the weather might be like. If the conditions are good, it will be tough for the Seahawks – any defense, really, to get many stops against that Denver offense. If it’s snowing or cold or really windy – or some combination of those three – than I think it will be the Seahawks.

We’ll also need to check on injuries. I’m assuming that Percy Harvin and Knowshon Moreno will be fine.

These projections are based on the weather being OK and the Broncos winning about 26-23.

Players are ranked in order of expected production, with no weight given to positions. I’m putting them in three different scoring systems.

Standard: 6 points for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 for every 20 passing yards. Kicking points standard. Defenses get 6 points for touchdowns on turnovers and special teams, 2 for takeaways and 1 for each sack. Individual players (Holliday, Harvin, Tate, Baldwin) get credit for possibility they’ll score on a kick return.

PPR: Same as above but players also get 1 point for each reception. Defensive scoring also slightly different; same as above, but they get slight bonuses for allowing fewer points. I’ve got Denver holding Seattle to 23 points. A half point for that. And Seattle gets minus-1 point for Denver scoring 26.

TD-only: 6 points for all touchdowns (including individuals maybe scoring on a kick return), 4 for TD passes, 3 for field goals and 1 for extra points. 2 points for safeties and 2-point conversions, but those aren’t worked into my model in any way.

SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS (Standard scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	TDP	TD	Points
1.	QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	282	0	1	1.93	.01	22.0
2.	QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	203	0	27	1.34	.17	19.2
3.	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	0	14	85	.00	.77	14.5
4.	RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	0	26	64	.00	.51	12.0
5.	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	0	71	0	.00	.46	9.9
6.	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	0	60	0	.00	.39	8.3
7.	PK	DEN	Matt Prater	0	0	0	.00	.00	8.3
8.	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	0	54	0	.00	.40	7.8
9.	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	0	48	0	.00	.45	7.5
10.	PK	SEA	Steven Hauschka	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.5
11.	RB	DEN	Montee Ball	0	9	44	.00	.26	6.8
12.	WR	SEA	Percy Harvin	0	43	3	.00	.32	6.5
13.	ST	DEN	Denver	0	0	0	.00	.19	6.4
14.	WR	SEA	Doug Baldwin	0	40	1	.00	.26	5.7
15.	WR	SEA	Golden Tate	0	39	1	.00	.27	5.6
16.	ST	SEA	Seattle	0	0	0	.00	.18	5.3
17.	TE	SEA	Zach Miller	0	27	0	.00	.26	4.2
18.	WR	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	0	21	0	.00	.14	2.9
19.	RB	SEA	Robert Turbin	0	3	12	.00	.09	2.1
20.	TE	SEA	Luke Willson	0	10	0	.00	.05	1.3
21.	WR	DEN	Andre Caldwell	0	9	0	.00	.05	1.1
22.	TE	DEN	Jacob Tamme	0	4	0	.00	.04	.6
23.	WR	DEN	Trindon Holliday	0	1	0	.00	.08	.5
24.	RB	SEA	Derrick Coleman	0	2	0	.00	.02	.4
25.	TE	DEN	Virgil Green	0	2	0	.00	.03	.3
26.	TE	SEA	Kellen Davis	0	2	0	.00	.01	.3
27.	QB	DEN	Brock Osweiler	3	0	0	.02	.00	.2
28.	RB	SEA	Michael Robinson	0	1	0	.00	.01	.2
29.	RB	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	0	1	0	.00	.01	.2
30.	QB	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	2	0	0	.01	.00	.2
31.	WR	SEA	Ricardo Lockette	0	1	0	.00	.01	.1
32.	RB	SEA	Christine Michael	0	0	1	.00	.00	.1
33.	QB	DEN	Zac Dysert	1	0	0	.00	.00	.0
34.	TE	DEN	Joel Dreessen	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
35.	WR	SEA	Bryan Walters	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
36.	RB	DEN	C.J. Anderson	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0

SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS (PPR scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	TDP	TD	Points
1.	QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	282	0	1	1.93	.01	22.0
2.	QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	203	0	27	1.34	.17	19.2
3.	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	0	14	85	.00	.77	16.2
4.	RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	0	26	64	.00	.51	15.0
5.	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	0	71	0	.00	.46	14.8
6.	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	0	60	0	.00	.39	13.0
7.	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	0	54	0	.00	.40	12.7
8.	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	0	48	0	.00	.45	12.1
9.	WR	SEA	Percy Harvin	0	43	3	.00	.32	9.9
10.	WR	SEA	Doug Baldwin	0	40	1	.00	.26	8.4
11.	WR	SEA	Golden Tate	0	39	1	.00	.27	8.4
12.	PK	DEN	Matt Prater	0	0	0	.00	.00	8.3
13.	RB	DEN	Montee Ball	0	9	44	.00	.26	8.0
14.	PK	SEA	Steven Hauschka	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.5
15.	ST	DEN	Denver	0	0	0	.00	.19	6.9
16.	TE	SEA	Zach Miller	0	27	0	.00	.26	6.6
17.	ST	SEA	Seattle	0	0	0	.00	.18	4.3
18.	WR	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	0	21	0	.00	.14	4.2
19.	RB	SEA	Robert Turbin	0	3	12	.00	.09	2.5
20.	TE	SEA	Luke Willson	0	10	0	.00	.05	2.1
21.	WR	DEN	Andre Caldwell	0	9	0	.00	.05	1.8
22.	TE	DEN	Jacob Tamme	0	4	0	.00	.04	1.0
23.	RB	SEA	Derrick Coleman	0	2	0	.00	.02	.8
24.	WR	DEN	Trindon Holliday	0	1	0	.00	.08	.6
25.	TE	DEN	Virgil Green	0	2	0	.00	.03	.5
26.	TE	SEA	Kellen Davis	0	2	0	.00	.01	.5
27.	RB	SEA	Michael Robinson	0	1	0	.00	.01	.4
28.	RB	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	0	1	0	.00	.01	.3
29.	QB	DEN	Brock Osweiler	3	0	0	.02	.00	.2
30.	WR	SEA	Ricardo Lockette	0	1	0	.00	.01	.2
31.	QB	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	2	0	0	.01	.00	.2
32.	RB	SEA	Christine Michael	0	0	1	.00	.00	.1
33.	TE	DEN	Joel Dreessen	0	0	0	.00	.00	.1
34.	QB	DEN	Zac Dysert	1	0	0	.00	.00	.0
35.	WR	SEA	Bryan Walters	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
36.	RB	DEN	C.J. Anderson	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0

SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS (TD-only scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	Kick	Points
1.	PK	DEN	Matt Prater	.00	.00	.00	.00	8.3
2.	QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	1.93	.00	.01	.00	7.8
3.	PK	SEA	Steven Hauschka	.00	.00	.00	.00	7.5
4.	QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	1.34	.00	.17	.00	6.4
5.	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	.00	.08	.68	.00	4.6
6.	RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	.00	.12	.40	.00	3.1
7.	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	.00	.46	.00	.00	2.8
8.	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	.00	.45	.00	.00	2.7
9.	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	.00	.40	.00	.00	2.4
10.	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	.00	.39	.00	.00	2.3
11.	WR	SEA	Percy Harvin	.00	.28	.01	.03	1.9
12.	WR	SEA	Golden Tate	.00	.24	.00	.03	1.6
13.	WR	SEA	Doug Baldwin	.00	.25	.00	.01	1.6
14.	RB	DEN	Montee Ball	.00	.02	.24	.00	1.6
15.	TE	SEA	Zach Miller	.00	.26	.00	.00	1.5
16.	ST	DEN	Denver	.00	.00	.00	.07	1.2
17.	ST	SEA	Seattle	.00	.00	.00	.07	1.1
18.	WR	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	.00	.14	.00	.00	.8
19.	RB	SEA	Robert Turbin	.00	.01	.08	.00	.5
20.	WR	DEN	Trindon Holliday	.00	.01	.00	.07	.5
21.	TE	SEA	Luke Willson	.00	.05	.00	.00	.3
22.	WR	DEN	Andre Caldwell	.00	.05	.00	.00	.3
23.	TE	DEN	Jacob Tamme	.00	.04	.00	.00	.2
24.	TE	DEN	Virgil Green	.00	.03	.00	.00	.2
25.	RB	SEA	Derrick Coleman	.00	.02	.00	.00	.1
26.	TE	SEA	Kellen Davis	.00	.01	.00	.00	.1
27.	QB	DEN	Brock Osweiler	.02	.00	.00	.00	.1
28.	RB	SEA	Michael Robinson	.00	.01	.00	.00	.1
29.	QB	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	.01	.00	.00	.00	.1
30.	RB	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	.00	.00	.00	.00	.0
31.	WR	SEA	Ricardo Lockette	.00	.01	.00	.00	.0
32.	RB	SEA	Christine Michael	.00	.00	.00	.00	.0
33.	QB	DEN	Zac Dysert	.00	.00	.00	.00	.0
34.	TE	DEN	Joel Dreessen	.00	.00	.00	.00	.0
35.	WR	SEA	Bryan Walters	.00	.00	.00	.00	.0
36.	RB	DEN	C.J. Anderson	.00	.00	.00	.00	.0

--Ian Allan

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