Running the numbers for four different systems, the same names tend to come out on top. Scott Pianowski is the winner in three of them. L'Roy Hale is champion in the other.
As I mentioned earlier with the Fantasy Index Open, I’m looking at various scoring systems with these forecasting competitions – trying to figure out what’s best.
Below are the four different possible formats for the regular Experts Poll competition (the 30-11, 25-6 and 20-1 sliding scales, as well as one chart based on the average of the other three).
Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports is definitely the winner for 2013. He won three of the four different formats (including the one designated prior to the competition as the official scoring for the contest).
L’Roy Hale of Fantasy First won the other scoring format. He came in first when more of a priority was placed on the highest picked (with guys ranked 15th to 20th not mattering so much).
Ultimately with this scoring systems, I don’t see a huge difference. The same names are at the top in every format, and the same names are at the bottom. Pianowski, Hale and Henry are in the top 4 in every format.
Just because a guy finishes near the bottom, by the way, doesn’t mean that you should disregard his opinions in the future. I see that Lenny Pappano, Paul Charchian, Christopher Harris and Tony Holm finished in the bottom 5 in a lot of formats, and I know that those guys know their stuff. Injuries play a huge role in this kind of a contest. Anybody who was high on players like Connor Barth, Dennis Pitta, Percy Harvin, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Michael Crabtree and Josh Freeman was going to take a beating.
I always run my own picks through the scoring, just to see how they stacked up. Not very well this time around. Those picks would have ranked 17th or 18th in all of the scoring systems below.
I don’t put my own picks in the poll for a couple of reasons. For starters, I’m working with a different deadline than these guys. Their picks are due in mid-May. I then would have another two-three weeks to potentially tinker with mine. My opinions and scouting reports on players are thoroughly presented in other areas of the magazine; so best (I think) in this section to step back into the role of an overseer – let these guys have their say on the various key issues and players.
EXPERTS POLL (Official scoring, 30-11 scale) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rk | Analyst | Company | Points |
1. | Scott Pianowski | Yahoo! Sports | 387,739 |
2. | L'Roy Hale | Fantasy First | 387,121 |
3. | Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus | 384,038 |
4. | Bob Henry | Footballguys.com | 383,405 |
5. | Chris Liss | Rotowire | 382,712 |
6. | Micah James | FFMagicMan | 382,506 |
7. | David Dorey | The Huddle | 382,439 |
8. | Bill Enright | Fantasy Football Champs | 382,085 |
9. | Alan Satterlee | Dynasty Football Warehouse | 381,886 |
10. | Ladd Biro | Fantasy Fools | 380,492 |
11. | Cory Bonini | KFFL | 380,143 |
12. | Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 378,847 |
13. | Scott Sachs | PerfectSeasonFFB.com | 378,801 |
14. | Sam Hendricks | Fantasy Football Guidebook | 378,700 |
15. | John Moore | 2012 Fantasy Index Open | 377,943 |
16. | Pretzel May | Fantasy Draft Master | 377,858 |
17. | Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 377,471 |
18. | Tony Holm | FantasySharks.com | 375,397 |
19. | Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 374,573 |
20. | Christopher Harris | ESPN | 374,510 |
PREMIUM ON EARLIER PICKS (20-1 scale) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rk | Analyst | Company | Points |
1. | L'Roy Hale | Fantasy First | 203,912 |
2. | Bob Henry | Footballguys.com | 203,214 |
3. | Scott Pianowski | Yahoo! Sports | 202,730 |
4. | Chris Liss | Rotowire | 202,691 |
5. | Bill Enright | Fantasy Football Champs | 202,620 |
6. | Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus | 202,253 |
7. | David Dorey | The Huddle | 202,056 |
8. | Micah James | FFMagicMan | 201,603 |
9. | Pretzel May | Fantasy Draft Master | 201,464 |
10. | Sam Hendricks | Fantasy Football Guidebook | 201,430 |
11. | Alan Satterlee | Dynasty Football Warehouse | 201,249 |
12. | Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 201,226 |
13. | Cory Bonini | KFFL | 200,236 |
14. | Ladd Biro | Fantasy Fools | 199,779 |
15. | Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 198,861 |
16. | John Moore | 2012 Fantasy Index Open | 198,750 |
17. | Christopher Harris | ESPN | 198,636 |
18. | Scott Sachs | PerfectSeasonFFB.com | 198,037 |
19. | Tony Holm | FantasySharks.com | 197,803 |
20. | Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 197,497 |
MID-RANGE SCORING SYSTEM (25-6 scale) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rk | Analyst | Company | Points |
1. | Scott Pianowski | Yahoo! Sports | 293,149 |
2. | L'Roy Hale | Fantasy First | 292,365 |
3. | Bob Henry | Footballguys.com | 290,534 |
4. | Bill Enright | Fantasy Football Champs | 289,918 |
5. | Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus | 289,856 |
6. | Chris Liss | Rotowire | 289,560 |
7. | Micah James | FFMagicMan | 289,497 |
8. | Ladd Biro | Fantasy Fools | 287,925 |
9. | David Dorey | The Huddle | 287,784 |
10. | Sam Hendricks | Fantasy Football Guidebook | 287,618 |
11. | Alan Satterlee | Dynasty Football Warehouse | 287,585 |
12. | Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 287,171 |
13. | Pretzel May | Fantasy Draft Master | 286,839 |
14. | Cory Bonini | KFFL | 285,979 |
15. | Scott Sachs | PerfectSeasonFFB.com | 285,878 |
16. | John Moore | 2012 Fantasy Index Open | 285,384 |
17. | Christopher Harris | ESPN | 284,280 |
18. | Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 284,043 |
19. | Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 283,800 |
20. | Tony Holm | FantasySharks.com | 283,020 |
AVERAGE OF ALL THREE (30-11, 25-6, 20-1) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Analyst | 30-11 | 25-6 | 20-1 |
1. | Scott Pianowski | 1 | 1 | 3 |
2. | L'Roy Hale | 2 | 2 | 1 |
3. | Bob Henry | 4 | 3 | 2 |
4. | Mike Clay | 3 | 5 | 6 |
5. | Chris Liss | 5 | 6 | 4 |
6. | Bill Enright | 8 | 4 | 5 |
7. | Micah James | 6 | 7 | 8 |
8. | David Dorey | 7 | 9 | 7 |
9. | Alan Satterlee | 9 | 11 | 11 |
10. | Ladd Biro | 10 | 8 | 14 |
11. | Sam Hendricks | 14 | 10 | 10 |
12. | Michael Nazarek | 12 | 12 | 12 |
13. | Pretzel May | 16 | 13 | 9 |
14. | Cory Bonini | 11 | 14 | 13 |
15. | Scott Sachs | 13 | 15 | 18 |
16. | John Moore | 15 | 16 | 16 |
17. | Lenny Pappano | 19 | 18 | 15 |
18. | Christopher Harris | 20 | 17 | 17 |
19. | Paul Charchian | 17 | 19 | 20 |
20. | Tony Holm | 18 | 20 | 19 |
-- Ian Allan