The NFL is likely to go to 14 teams making the playoffs. What kind of teams can we expect will capture those final playoff spots?
The NFL is talking about adding two more playoff teams, and it looks like it will happen – if not in 2014 than 2015. It seems like they’re just figuring out the logistics – whether the additional two games will be played on Saturdays and Sundays (making for triple headers) or whether they can be played on Friday night or Monday night.
Plan will be for the No. 7 seed in each conference to play the No. 2 in that first week. The existing first-round matchups wouldn’t be changed, and the playoffs would be the same after that first round.
Get ready, it seems, for a bunch of 9-7 teams to make the playoffs.
I ran the numbers. If they’d expanded to 14 teams back in 2002 (when they went to 32 teams) there would have been 24 additional playoff games played. In 17 of those games, the No. 7 seed would have finished the regular season with an 8-8 or 9-7 record.
In the last 12 years, one time has an 11-5 team missed the playoffs. That was the Patriots in 2008 (the year after the 16-0 season, when Matt Cassel started the final 15 games for them). And six times 10-6 teams would have made it, including this last season (when 10-6 Arizona would have played at 12-4 Carolina).
In the chart below, there were three years where teams finished tied for the No. 7 spot and I couldn’t easily figure out which team would have made it. Those teams didn’t meet in the regular season and finished with the same conference record, so the tie would have been settled by looking at common games.
What do you think? Who’s in for another two games per year? For fantasy purposes, it means there will be more guys to pick from in playoff contests.
| ADDING SEVENTH PLAYOFF TEAM | |
|---|---|
| Year | Additional Games |
| 2002 | Denver (9-7) at Tennessee (11-5) |
| 2002 | New Orleans (9-7) at Tampa Bay (11-5) |
| 2003 | Miami (10-6) at Kansas City (13-3) |
| 2003 | Minnesota (9-7) at St. Louis (12-4) |
| 2004 | New Orleans (8-8) at Atlanta (11-5) |
| 2004 | Jax or Balt (9-7) at New England (14-2) |
| 2005 | Minnesota (9-7) at Chicago (11-5) |
| 2005 | Kansas City (10-6) at Denver (13-3) |
| 2006 | Green Bay (8-8) at New Orleans (10-6) |
| 2006 | Denver (9-7) at Baltimore (13-3) |
| 2007 | Minnesota (8-8) at Green Bay (13-3) |
| 2007 | Cleveland (10-6) at Indianapolis (13-3) |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay (9-7) at Carolina (12-4) |
| 2008 | New England (11-5) at Pittsburgh (12-4) |
| 2009 | Atlanta (9-7) at Minnesota (12-4) |
| 2009 | Hou or Pitt (9-7) at San Diego (13-3) |
| 2010 | NYG or TB (10-6) at Chicago (11-5) |
| 2010 | San Diego (9-7) at Pittsburgh (12-4) |
| 2011 | Ariz or Chic (8-8) at San Francisco (13-3) |
| 2011 | Tennessee (9-7) at Baltimore (12-4) |
| 2012 | Chicago (10-6) at San Francisco (11-4-1) |
| 2012 | Pittsburgh (8-8) at New England (12-4) |
| 2013 | Pittsburgh (8-8) at New England (12-4) |
| 2013 | Arizona (10-6) at Carolina (12-4) |
--Ian Allan