Ian Allan picks through the dozens of Super Bowl prop options, cross references those against his own game forecast, and decides on Wes Welker and Julius Thomas as his two prop bet favorites.

As a disclaimer, I don’t have a gambling background. I’ve never placed a bet in Las Vegas. Every year on this thing, I have to get out the chart and double-check what the chart means when it says “+110”, “even” or “-125”.

For clarification, when it says “even”, that means if you bet $100, you get $200 back – the $100 you bet plus another $100.

If it’s slotted at +110, then your $100 would potentially turn into $210 ($100 + $110).

If the line reads “-125”, that means you would have to bet $125 to win $100. So a $125 beat would get you $225 ($125 + $100 in return). Or if you bet an even $100, you would get $180 back ($100 + $80). The ratio of 80 to 100 is the same as 100 to 125.

Anyway, I read through the list, compared it to my own forecast, consulted the recent and season-long numbers and pulled out the 16 bets that I like the best. Ones where I would expect the odds are in my favor. There’s obviously chance involved, but I would guess that of these 16, I’ll probably hit on 10-11 of them.

Two years ago, if memory serves correct, I identified 22 bets and went about 15-7. But I didn’t bother factoring in the adjustment numbers, so it was kind of half-baked experiment.

Last year I attempted to work in the line numbers, and it didn’t work out very well. I built my model around wagering whatever was necessary to win $100. One of the failed bets involved betting a large sum (something like $2000) that there wouldn’t be a safety, and the Ravens took one at the end. So all was lost right there (and I don’t think the other recommendations were particularly good either).

For this go round, I will score it as if I were to walk in and wager $100 on each of the following bets. For the ones with the odds of -110, -120 and -125 (which is most of them), I would be winning less than $100. If each of the bets was set up where I would need to wager $100 to make $85, then if I were to convert 10 of the 16 bets, the initial $1600 investment would result in a $250 profit ($1,000 + $850 - $1,600). If I were to hit 9 of 16, I should come out just a little bit ahead.

Odds may vary from location to location. I used the Bovada website.

Let me know what your favorite Super Props are.

IAN’S FAVORITE SUPER BOWL PROPS

Russell Wilson under 210 passing yards. Apparently people think Wilson will throw more in this game, because you have to bet $130 to win $100 if you take the over. It’s even if select the under. Repeating: if you put $100 down on each side, you would win $100 if he finished under, and you would win only $77 if he went over. They’re trying to make the under look tastier. But that’s just the one I would pick. Not a great bet. My forecast for Wilson is 203, so I’m pretty similar. But with the way they have the odds set up, it’s set up in my favor. Similar, I think to betting that if a coin was flipped 10 times, but it land on heads 5 or fewer times? I will take it. Wilson has been under 209 in five of his last six games, and as I argued on the website on Tuesday, I think Denver’s pass defense is actually much better than people realize.

Russell Wilson under 17 completions. It’s the same bet, only converting his yards to completions. And it’s set up the same way, paying $77 for the over and the full $100 for the under. I’ll take the under. Wilson has completed more than 16 passes in only 7 of 18 games, including just one of his last six.

Russell Wilson under 33 rushing yards. I think this is one of the big keys to the game. If Wilson takes off and runs a lot, that might be what helps Seattle win it. It was quarterback running, recall, which gave San Francisco a good chance of winning in the NFC Championship – it’s a third thing for the defense to win about. Wilson runs almost as well as Kaepernick – he’s not as fast but he’s quicker. His running was a huge part of early-season games against Houston (77 yards), Indianapolis (102) and Tennessee (61). Wilson is small, and you don’t want to get him injured by taking unnecessary hits, but this is the Super Bowl – no need to worry about next week. If I were coaching the Seahawks, I would encourage Wilson to run more often this week, and it would be the over for sure. But he doesn’t seem to have a big running mentality. He’s more of a Fran Tarkenton or Archie Manning guy who likes to buy time for passing by running around, but then still throw it. He’s been over 30 rushing yards in only 3 of his last 12 games. I will bet the under. The betting line suggests the more popular choice is the over (-125) than the under (-105).

Marshawn Lynch under 91 rushing yards. It’s not a great wager. I’ve got him at 85 yards on my board, which is right in that neighborhood. But the betting line suggests people think he’s going over. They got it at -125 and +105, meaning you get only $80 if he runs for 91 yards, and you get $105 (on a $100 bet) if you take the under.

Marshawn Lynch under 22 carries. Lynch has had over 21 carries in only five of 18 games. If the Broncos have success holding the ball or get a lead, he won’t get anywhere close to 21. Not a great payout, though. They’ve got the over and under at -115, meaning if you make a $100 wager, you would walk away with a profit of under $87.

Golden Tate under 46 receiving yards. For the year, Tate is averaging 52 yards. He’s been over 45 yards in eight of his 18 games – a little under half. But factor in that Seattle will have Percy Harvin in this game – another mouth to feed. When Harvin played the first half against the Saints, he was the focal point of the passing game. Tate had only 2 balls thrown his way, catching 1 for 13 yards. In Harvin’s other game this year, Tate caught 1 ball. Doug Baldwin has been busier than Tate recently. Not a great buy. They have them tagged at -115 for both the over and under.

Zach Miller under 25 receiving yards. He’s not a big part of Seattle’s passing attack. He’s reached 24 receiving yards in only 6 of 16 games. They’ve got a lot of other guys who come in ahead of him in the pecking order. Every once in in a while, Miller will surprise you (like in the Atlanta playoff game last year or in the MNF win against New Orleans) but chances are he won’t be a factor. They’re paying at the -115 for both over and under.

Jermaine Kearse under 25 receiving yards. Kearse has reached 25 yards in 8 of 17 games – almost half. They’ll probably try to hit him on a long ball or two. But Seahawks are working in Harvin this week, and that should trim his playing time and opportunities some. The over/under are both tagged at -115.

Percy Harvin’s longest reception under 21 yards. Harvin, I think, is a catch-and-run guy. They’ll throw him short balls and hope he can create. He’s only 5-foot-11, so they’re not running him on deep fly patterns. That’s more Kearse’s role, I think. Harvin has caught only 4 balls this year, with a long of 17. Pays at the -115 rate for both over and under, so not a great bargain.

Note on Peyton’s passing yards. Bovada has the over-under set at 290.5. That’s fair. Earlier in the week, I saw somebody else had it at 323.5, which is way too high (in my opinion). At 290, I don’t want in either way.

Peyton Manning over 12 incompletions. The over-under looks low to me. Brees had 15 and 19 incompletions in his two games against this defense. Manning has hit this number in only 7 of 18 games, and none of those defenses were as good as this one. The “over” is slotted at -125, so the payout is only $80. The more favorable conversion is the -105 under (where a $100 bet would equal about a $95 payday). But I’m going over.

Peyton Manning’s long completion under 38 yards. Between them, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker have had a 38-yard reception in nine of the team’s 18 games. Welker isn’t going that long. Probably not Julius Thomas or Andre Caldwell either. Seattle’s defense is tougher than the others Denver has faced. Manning more so than usual will have to pick and peck his way down the field. Seattle has given up only 4 completions of 40 yards in 18 games this year. Pay structure suggests everyone thinks it’s going to be under (+105) rather than over (-135).

Wes Welker under 58 receiving yards. With Richard Sherman lining up against one of the outside receivers, maybe this will cause the Broncos to utilize Welker more. The Seahawks also have been better against tight ends than most teams, which works in his favor. But Welker hasn’t been as involved in Denver’s offense as he was at the start of the year. He’s been under 40 yards in five of his last seven. I’ve got him at 51 yards on my board. Pricing is also more favorable for the under (-105).

Wes Welker under 6 receptions. Same deal as the yards, only converting to catches. If he finishes with 5 receptions, that’s a win, paid out at the +105 rate.

Wes Welker’s long reception under 20 yards. This is one of my favorite wagers, so if I was putting them in order of preference, it would near the top. Welker isn’t a downfield guy. He’s just catching little 8-10 yards balls. Seattle doesn’t give up long plays. The Seahawks gave up only 30 pass plays of 20-plus yards all year, 6 fewer than any other team (20 fewer than 19 teams). Welker caught a 20-yard pass in 9 of his 15 games (so 20 percent of the time), but three of his balls were exactly 20 yards – so just barely. Very likely to be under. Pays at -115.

Julius Thomas under 56 receiving yards. I looked at the preseason game early in the week, and recall that Thomas had a couple of nice downfield catches in that game. But Seattle is really tough against tight ends. In two games against Seattle, Jimmy Graham caught 4 passes for 50 yards. Tony Gonzalez caught 3 for 29. Vernon Davis didn’t have more than 21 yards in any of his three games against them. Thomas is averaging 59 yards for the year, but I definitely want the under (paying at -115).

Andre Caldwell over 9 receiving yards. He’s caught a pass for 12 and 15 yards the last two weeks. He’s their No. 4 guy, but I think they’ll stick him out there for a few plays in an effort to stretch out Seattle’s defense and try to find a weakness. Pays at the -105 rate.