Fantasy News

January 29, 2014

Super Bowl player rankings

Peyton Manning leads the way

Ian Allan provides Super Bowl player rankings for three different scoring systems, and No. 18 keeps coming out at the top.

Looks like the weather will be OK for Sunday’s game. Temperatures shouldn’t be too bad, and wind shouldn’t be a factor.

With that in mind, I expect Denver will pull this out. I think they were just a little better this year. And with the way the rules of the game are structured now, it’s just really tough for a defense – even one as good as Seattle’s – to consistently stop a high-powered offense. Peyton Manning has four really good receivers (five if you include Knowshon Moreno), and he’ll find some matchups he likes. You can’t shut down everyone.

So I’m going with a 26-23 type score on my board. Seattle has been really good against tight ends, so I’ve tweaked Julius Thomas down some from where he would normally rank.

Individual numbers should look something like what I’ve got below. Tomorrow, I will cross-reference these projections against the prop bets and see if there are any that look like really good deals.

On the rankings below, I’m just ignoring positions and ranking the guys based on how many points I expect they’ll score in each of the formats.

In standard scoring, defenses get 2 points for takeaways, 1 for sacks and 6 for touchdowns. In PPR scoring, defenses get all those same points, plus 1 for every 2 points allowed below 24 (so Denver gets a 1.5-point edge there).

With TD only, it’s 6 points for TDs and 4 for TD passes.

SUPER BOWL PLAYER RANKINGS (standard scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	TDP	TD	Points
1	QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	282	0	1	1.93	.01	22.0
2	QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	203	0	27	1.34	.17	19.2
3	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	0	14	85	.00	.77	14.5
4	RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	0	26	62	.00	.50	11.7
5	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	0	71	0	.00	.46	9.9
6	PK	DEN	Matt Prater	0	0	0	.00	.00	8.3
7	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	0	57	0	.00	.38	8.0
8	PK	SEA	Steven Hauschka	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.5
9	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	0	51	0	.00	.39	7.5
10	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	0	48	0	.00	.44	7.5
11	RB	DEN	Montee Ball	0	9	46	.00	.27	7.1
12	WR	SEA	Percy Harvin	0	43	3	.00	.32	6.5
13	ST	DEN	Denver	0	0	0	.00	.19	6.4
14	WR	SEA	Doug Baldwin	0	40	1	.00	.26	5.7
15	WR	SEA	Golden Tate	0	39	1	.00	.27	5.6
16	ST	SEA	Seattle	0	0	0	.00	.18	5.3
17	TE	SEA	Zach Miller	0	27	0	.00	.26	4.2
18	WR	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	0	21	0	.00	.14	2.9
19	RB	SEA	Robert Turbin	0	3	12	.00	.09	2.1
20	WR	DEN	Andre Caldwell	0	14	0	.00	.08	1.9
21	TE	SEA	Luke Willson	0	10	0	.00	.05	1.3
22	TE	DEN	Jacob Tamme	0	4	0	.00	.04	.6
23	WR	DEN	Trindon Holliday	0	1	0	.00	.08	.5
24	RB	SEA	Derrick Coleman	0	2	0	.00	.02	.4
25	TE	DEN	Virgil Green	0	2	0	.00	.03	.3
26	TE	SEA	Kellen Davis	0	2	0	.00	.01	.3
27	RB	SEA	Michael Robinson	0	1	0	.00	.01	.2
28	RB	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	0	1	0	.00	.01	.2
29	QB	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	2	0	0	.01	.00	.2
30	WR	SEA	Ricardo Lockette	0	1	0	.00	.01	.1
31	QB	DEN	Brock Osweiler	2	0	0	.02	.00	.1
32	RB	SEA	Christine Michael	0	0	1	.00	.00	.1
33	WR	SEA	Bryan Walters	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
34	RB	DEN	C.J. Anderson	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
35	TE	DEN	Joel Dreessen	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
36	QB	DEN	Zac Dysert	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0

SUPER BOWL PLAYER RANKINGS (PPR scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	TDP	TD	Points
1	QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	282	0	1	1.93	.01	22.0
2	QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	203	0	27	1.34	.17	19.2
3	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	0	14	85	.00	.77	16.2
4	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	0	71	0	.00	.46	14.8
5	RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	0	26	62	.00	.50	14.7
6	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	0	57	0	.00	.38	12.4
7	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	0	51	0	.00	.39	12.1
8	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	0	48	0	.00	.44	12.0
9	WR	SEA	Percy Harvin	0	43	3	.00	.32	9.9
10	WR	SEA	Doug Baldwin	0	40	1	.00	.26	8.4
11	WR	SEA	Golden Tate	0	39	1	.00	.27	8.4
12	PK	DEN	Matt Prater	0	0	0	.00	.00	8.3
13	RB	DEN	Montee Ball	0	9	46	.00	.27	8.2
14	PK	SEA	Steven Hauschka	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.5
15	ST	DEN	Denver	0	0	0	.00	.19	6.9
16	TE	SEA	Zach Miller	0	27	0	.00	.26	6.6
17	ST	SEA	Seattle	0	0	0	.00	.18	4.3
18	WR	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	0	21	0	.00	.14	4.2
19	WR	DEN	Andre Caldwell	0	14	0	.00	.08	2.9
20	RB	SEA	Robert Turbin	0	3	12	.00	.09	2.5
21	TE	SEA	Luke Willson	0	10	0	.00	.05	2.1
22	TE	DEN	Jacob Tamme	0	4	0	.00	.04	1.0
23	RB	SEA	Derrick Coleman	0	2	0	.00	.02	.8
24	WR	DEN	Trindon Holliday	0	1	0	.00	.08	.6
25	TE	DEN	Virgil Green	0	2	0	.00	.03	.5
26	TE	SEA	Kellen Davis	0	2	0	.00	.01	.5
27	RB	SEA	Michael Robinson	0	1	0	.00	.01	.4
28	RB	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	0	1	0	.00	.01	.3
29	WR	SEA	Ricardo Lockette	0	1	0	.00	.01	.2
30	QB	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	2	0	0	.01	.00	.2
31	QB	DEN	Brock Osweiler	2	0	0	.02	.00	.1
32	RB	SEA	Christine Michael	0	0	1	.00	.00	.1
33	WR	SEA	Bryan Walters	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
34	RB	DEN	C.J. Anderson	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
35	TE	DEN	Joel Dreessen	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0
36	QB	DEN	Zac Dysert	0	0	0	.00	.00	.0

SUPER BOWL PLAYER RANKINGS (TD-only scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	TDP	TD	Points
1	PK	DEN	Matt Prater	.00	.00	8.3
2	QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	1.93	.01	7.8
3	PK	SEA	Steven Hauschka	.00	.00	7.5
4	QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	1.34	.17	6.4
5	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	.00	.77	4.6
6	RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	.00	.50	3.0
7	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	.00	.46	2.7
8	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	.00	.44	2.6
9	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	.00	.39	2.3
10	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	.00	.38	2.3
11	WR	SEA	Percy Harvin	.00	.32	1.9
12	WR	SEA	Golden Tate	.00	.27	1.6
13	RB	DEN	Montee Ball	.00	.27	1.6
14	WR	SEA	Doug Baldwin	.00	.26	1.6
15	TE	SEA	Zach Miller	.00	.26	1.5
16	ST	DEN	Denver	.00	.19	1.2
17	ST	SEA	Seattle	.00	.18	1.1
18	WR	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	.00	.14	.8
19	RB	SEA	Robert Turbin	.00	.09	.5
20	WR	DEN	Andre Caldwell	.00	.08	.5
21	WR	DEN	Trindon Holliday	.00	.08	.5
22	TE	SEA	Luke Willson	.00	.05	.3
23	TE	DEN	Jacob Tamme	.00	.04	.2
24	TE	DEN	Virgil Green	.00	.03	.2
25	RB	SEA	Derrick Coleman	.00	.02	.1
26	TE	SEA	Kellen Davis	.00	.01	.1
27	RB	SEA	Michael Robinson	.00	.01	.1
28	QB	DEN	Brock Osweiler	.02	.00	.1
29	QB	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	.01	.00	.1
30	WR	SEA	Bryan Walters	.00	.00	.0
31	RB	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	.00	.01	.0
32	RB	DEN	C.J. Anderson	.00	.00	.0
33	WR	SEA	Ricardo Lockette	.00	.01	.0
34	TE	DEN	Joel Dreessen	.00	.00	.0
35	RB	SEA	Christine Michael	.00	.00	.0
36	QB	DEN	Zac Dysert	.00	.00	.0

--Ian Allan

4 Reader Comments:

Tod Denison

BAKERSFIELD, CA

2014-01-29T21:04:31Z

Ian,
If I wanted to place a prop bet on number of receptions by a receiver, would I take the points and deduct the yds to get an idea of how many catches that would be (ie: Decker 12.4 - 5.7 = 6.7 receptions)?

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2014-01-29T21:24:30Z

Expected catches for each guy (what I expect, anyway) would be his receiving yards divided by his expected yards-per-catch average. Demaryius Thomas, for example, projects at 71 yards. If you assume he's averaging 14 yards per catch, then he's at about 5 (5 x 14 = 70). I will pick through the numbers tomorrow, and if I see any nice looking prop bets (things where I believe the number has been set incorrectly) I will let you know.

James COSTELLO

PORTLAND, ME

2014-01-29T22:45:45Z

I'm not sure that this is the proper venue for this particular post but I have a hunch Seattle is going to win. As a Pat's fan I clearly remember that first Super Bowl we won by shutting down the 'Greatest Show on Turf". And the Pat's defense though good,was nowhere close to the Seattle defense. If the game remains close I think the pressure mounts for Denver and Manning since they are supposed to win. Also Wilson reminds me a little of a young Tom Brady,not so much in style of play, but by poise and football IQ. There's just something special about that kid

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2014-01-30T00:35:30Z

Tod: Upon further review, if you want to look at my projected receptions, you can subtract the standard fantasy points from the PPR fantasy points. So for Decker, that would be 12.4 - 8.0 = 4.4 receptions. And for James: everybody in Seattle hopes you're right.

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