Picking through the recommended prop bets. Russell Wilson squeaked through with a couple of winners, while Ian went 0-for-3 on his Wes Welker recommendations.
What’s the deal with safeties in the Super Bowl? In a typical NFL season, there are about 16 safeties – that’s in 256 regular-season games. Yet for the third Super Bowl in a row, there’s a safety. This game started with one, putting me in an immediate hole in the little prop challenge I tossed up on Thursday.
But it ended up OK. I hit on 10 of the 16 other bets. Factoring in the various discounted rates and odds, the initial investment of $1,700 finished with a value of $1,920 – up $220.
SUCCESSFUL BETS
Russell Wilson under 210 passing yards. He closed at 206, so made it barely. Paid $200 ($100 bet + $100).
Russell Wilson under 33 rushing yards for $195.
Marshawn Lynch under 91 rushing yards. Broncos have a good run defense, and they keyed on him. Paid $205 (folks wanted the over).
Marshawn Lynch under 22 carries for $187 (that’s the -115 rate on a $100 bet).
Golden Tate under 46 receiving yards for $187.
Zach Miller under 25 receiving yards for $187.
Percy Harvin long reception under 21 yards for $187. Harvin was very impressive in this game, however – game-changing speed. He had a run for 30 yards and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Paid $187.
Peyton Manning over 12 incompletions for $180.
Peyton Manning long completion under 38 yards for $205.
Julius Thomas under 56 receiving yards for $187. My favorite pregame blip was from Sterling Sharpe, who said that Thomas would have a big game because Seattle’s defense hasn’t seen a tight end with his kind of athletic ability. Uh … Vernon Davis three times? Jimmy Graham twice? Tony Gonzalez? None of those guys had good games against the Seahawks either. Thomas caught 4 balls for 27 yards.
Those are the winning bets, and they add up to about $1,920 (I’m just leaving out the pennies).
MISSED BETS
All seven bets were for $100, so a net loss of $700 on these.
I thought there wouldn’t be a safety, and the odds were crazy good (they had like a 1-in-8 chance of a safety, which is just dumb). I will bet against the safety every year at those odds.
Wilson under 17 completions. He went an efficient 18 of 25.
Jermaine Kearse under 25 yards. I thought he would play less with Harvin getting mixed in, but Kearse played a big role.
Wes Welker under 58 yards. He caught 8 for 84.
Wes Welker under 6 receptions. He caught 8.
Wes Welker’s long catch under 20 yards. He had the 22-yarder down to about the 10.
Andre Caldwell over 9 yards. I didn’t even see him out there. I thought they’d try some four-receiver sets.
Overall, not a great year. Up 13 percent on the initial investment. But not a disaster.
