Is there anything to this Strength of Schedule stuff? Or are we just wasting our time playing around with numbers? Ian Allan looks at the hardest and easiest schedules since the move to 32 teams.
We have looked at the numbers and can see that the Colts, Lions and Dolphins project to play the easiest schedules (at least in terms of points scored). But does that mean a hoot? Does it mean we should be more likely next August to draft guys like Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill.
I’m not going to get too deeply into it. I’m working on other stuff. But I’ll throw one chart your way.
Below is the list showing the three easiest and three hardest schedules for each of the last decade – that’s the 11 seasons 2003-2013. That gives us complete and balanced info, since there were 32 teams in each of those seasons. There are 66 teams listed, so we’re starting to get to the point where the statistics start to become more meaningful.
The chart includes two numbers for each of the teams. The EXPECTED strength of schedule. That is, how the numbers suggested they should have done in August before any games were played. (It’s those numbers that we’re using to identify teams like the Colts and Lions). And the other (ACTUAL) number shows how things actually turned out. That is, if you looked at each team’s 16 opponents, how many points (on average) did those teams allow in their other 240 combined games.
I’ve got the schedules ranked easiest to hardest. Ten teams (at the top) played schedules ranking in the top 4 in easiest in their particular season. Note that all but one of these teams projected to have a top-2 easy schedule. (I’ve got those teams in bold).
At the bottom of the table, there are 15 teams with bottom-10 schedules. All but four of those teams projected to have bottom-2 schedules.
There are exceptions. Ideally, the top 22 teams on this chart should all be in bold – they should be the top-2 easy schedules for each. And the bottom 22 teams (in plain type) should be the other teams. But there is some correlation. There are a lot more bold teams near the top, where the easier schedules reside.
My thinking on schedules has long been that they do make some nominal difference. You’re not sure what you’re getting until the games start playing out, but projected easier schedule do tend to be easier. And that results in some extra . So on draft dray, if you’re faced with choosing between two very similar players, the smart play is to go with the one with the easier schedule (and hope the trends hold for you).
| HARD/EASY SCHEDULES SINCE 2003 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Expected | Rank | Actual | Rank |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 24.4 | 1 | 24.4 | 1 |
| 2003 | Chicago | 23.9 | 1 | 22.4 | 1 |
| 2004 | Denver | 22.0 | 2 | 23.0 | 1 |
| 2004 | Tampa Bay | 22.3 | 1 | 22.9 | 2 |
| 2005 | Arizona | 22.7 | 1 | 21.8 | 3 |
| 2009 | Seattle | 23.8 | 1 | 23.6 | 3 |
| 2008 | San Francisco | 22.6 | 1 | 23.6 | 4 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 21.9 | 2 | 22.7 | 4 |
| 2003 | Seattle | 23.8 | 2 | 21.8 | 4 |
| 2011 | Minnesota | 21.1 | 31 | 23.7 | 4 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 23.5 | 2 | 24.9 | 7 |
| 2008 | New England | 22.4 | 2 | 23.0 | 9 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 20.9 | 32 | 23.1 | 9 |
| 2007 | Buffalo | 18.9 | 32 | 22.1 | 9 |
| 2010 | Washington | 22.5 | 1 | 22.8 | 10 |
| 2011 | Washington | 23.3 | 1 | 22.9 | 12 |
| 2010 | Dallas | 22.5 | 2 | 22.4 | 13 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 20.4 | 32 | 22.8 | 14 |
| 2007 | Carolina | 22.1 | 1 | 21.8 | 15 |
| 2005 | Philadelphia | 22.6 | 2 | 20.8 | 15 |
| 2013 | Denver | 24.0 | 1 | 23.2 | 16 |
| 2007 | NY Jets | 19.5 | 31 | 21.7 | 16 |
| 2005 | Kansas City | 20.6 | 31 | 20.7 | 16 |
| 2009 | Miami | 20.5 | 32 | 22.3 | 17 |
| 2011 | Tennessee | 23.1 | 2 | 22.1 | 18 |
| 2006 | Detroit | 18.9 | 32 | 20.5 | 19 |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 19.5 | 31 | 20.5 | 20 |
| 2003 | New Orleans | 19.1 | 32 | 20.8 | 20 |
| 2009 | NY Jets | 20.9 | 31 | 21.4 | 22 |
| 2005 | New Orleans | 20.4 | 32 | 20.3 | 23 |
| 2006 | Miami | 21.7 | 2 | 20.0 | 25 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 20.8 | 31 | 22.2 | 25 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 23.9 | 2 | 22.1 | 26 |
| 2008 | Detroit | 20.5 | 32 | 20.6 | 26 |
| 2010 | Cleveland | 20.2 | 31 | 20.7 | 28 |
| 2004 | Miami | 19.6 | 31 | 20.4 | 28 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 21.4 | 31 | 22.0 | 28 |
| 2013 | St. Louis | 21.2 | 32 | 21.6 | 29 |
| 2003 | Washington | 19.6 | 31 | 19.4 | 30 |
| 2006 | Pittsburgh | 21.8 | 1 | 18.9 | 31 |
| 2009 | San Francisco | 23.6 | 2 | 19.3 | 31 |
| 2004 | Cincinnati | 19.0 | 32 | 19.3 | 31 |
| 2008 | Cincinnati | 20.7 | 31 | 19.2 | 32 |
| 2010 | Cincinnati | 20.1 | 32 | 19.8 | 32 |
—Ian Allan