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Factoid

Elite running backs

Hard to follow a stellar season

Two running backs had huge seasons last year – LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Do you want to go after one of those guys this year if you have a top-3 pick? Or would you rather try to hit on a different running back breaking through to the top?

Running back is a high-punishment position, and it’s tough for those guys to stay on top. It’s particularly tough to put together back-to-back years with big numbers.

Entering last season, 27 running backs had gone over 2,000 yards (and Charles, by the way, fell just short of that mark last year). Of those 27, only 8 were able to go over 1,900 yards again the next year.

Another eight running backs finished in the range of 1,500-1,900 yards.

And the remaining 11 finished under 1,500 yards. That includes Tiki Barber, who retired after posting big numbers in 2006.

2,000-YARD BACKS -- THE NEXT YEAR
YardsYearPlayerRecRunTot
2509'09Chris Johnson24513641609
2390'05Tiki Barber46516622127
2370'03LaDainian Tomlinson44113351776
2334'06Steven Jackson27110021273
2323'06LaDainian Tomlinson47514741949
2314'12Adrian Peterson17112661437
2303'00Edgerrin James193662855
2287'02Priest Holmes69014202110
2271'03Jamal Lewis11610061122
2250'03Ahman Green27511631438
2220'10Arian Foster61712241841
2216'02Ricky Williams35113721723
2199'06Larry Johnson186559745
2189'00Marshall Faulk76513822147
2180'06Frank Gore43611021538
2172'02LaDainian Tomlinson72516452370
2169'01Priest Holmes67216152287
2157'03Deuce McAllister22810741302
2147'01Marshall Faulk5379531490
2146'13LeSean McCoy???
2127'06Tiki BarberDNPDNPDNP
2110'03Priest Holmes1878921079
2104'07Brian Westbrook4029361338
2096'04Tiki Barber53018602390
2093'05Larry Johnson41017892199
2068'11Ray Rice47811431621
2041'09Ray Rice55612201776
2031'04Edgerrin James33715061843

In a rough sense, it looks like when you go after one of these backs (and these are guys who are going to tend to be selected with top-3 overall picks) there’s about a 30 percent chance they’ll have a huge season again. There’s about a 30 percent chance there will be a dip – but at least there will be decent production. And there’s maybe a 40 percent chance they’ll be kind of a disappointment or blown pick.

—Ian Allan

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