Two running backs had huge seasons last year – LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Do you want to go after one of those guys this year if you have a top-3 pick? Or would you rather try to hit on a different running back breaking through to the top?
Running back is a high-punishment position, and it’s tough for those guys to stay on top. It’s particularly tough to put together back-to-back years with big numbers.
Entering last season, 27 running backs had gone over 2,000 yards (and Charles, by the way, fell just short of that mark last year). Of those 27, only 8 were able to go over 1,900 yards again the next year.
Another eight running backs finished in the range of 1,500-1,900 yards.
And the remaining 11 finished under 1,500 yards. That includes Tiki Barber, who retired after posting big numbers in 2006.
2,000-YARD BACKS -- THE NEXT YEAR | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yards | Year | Player | Rec | Run | Tot |
2509 | '09 | Chris Johnson | 245 | 1364 | 1609 |
2390 | '05 | Tiki Barber | 465 | 1662 | 2127 |
2370 | '03 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 441 | 1335 | 1776 |
2334 | '06 | Steven Jackson | 271 | 1002 | 1273 |
2323 | '06 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 475 | 1474 | 1949 |
2314 | '12 | Adrian Peterson | 171 | 1266 | 1437 |
2303 | '00 | Edgerrin James | 193 | 662 | 855 |
2287 | '02 | Priest Holmes | 690 | 1420 | 2110 |
2271 | '03 | Jamal Lewis | 116 | 1006 | 1122 |
2250 | '03 | Ahman Green | 275 | 1163 | 1438 |
2220 | '10 | Arian Foster | 617 | 1224 | 1841 |
2216 | '02 | Ricky Williams | 351 | 1372 | 1723 |
2199 | '06 | Larry Johnson | 186 | 559 | 745 |
2189 | '00 | Marshall Faulk | 765 | 1382 | 2147 |
2180 | '06 | Frank Gore | 436 | 1102 | 1538 |
2172 | '02 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 725 | 1645 | 2370 |
2169 | '01 | Priest Holmes | 672 | 1615 | 2287 |
2157 | '03 | Deuce McAllister | 228 | 1074 | 1302 |
2147 | '01 | Marshall Faulk | 537 | 953 | 1490 |
2146 | '13 | LeSean McCoy | ? | ? | ? |
2127 | '06 | Tiki Barber | DNP | DNP | DNP |
2110 | '03 | Priest Holmes | 187 | 892 | 1079 |
2104 | '07 | Brian Westbrook | 402 | 936 | 1338 |
2096 | '04 | Tiki Barber | 530 | 1860 | 2390 |
2093 | '05 | Larry Johnson | 410 | 1789 | 2199 |
2068 | '11 | Ray Rice | 478 | 1143 | 1621 |
2041 | '09 | Ray Rice | 556 | 1220 | 1776 |
2031 | '04 | Edgerrin James | 337 | 1506 | 1843 |
In a rough sense, it looks like when you go after one of these backs (and these are guys who are going to tend to be selected with top-3 overall picks) there’s about a 30 percent chance they’ll have a huge season again. There’s about a 30 percent chance there will be a dip – but at least there will be decent production. And there’s maybe a 40 percent chance they’ll be kind of a disappointment or blown pick.
—Ian Allan