We were kicking the idea around of how much of an impact we should expect from DeSean Jackson. David Kennedy was asking if this means we should all be selecting Robert Griffin III?
And while we haven’t spoken as much about it, should we all now be avoiding Nick Foles?
How much does it help an offense when you add a playmaker like DeSean Jackson?
Certainly there have been cases where big-time receivers have arrived and energized offenses. Think of Randy Moss with the 2007 Patriots, or Terrell Owens with the Eagles.
But there have also been a lot of bust. Seems like every receiver the Steelers ever get rid of flops – Yancey Thipgen, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington.
But let’s roll out the numbers, shall we?
By my count, I believe 26 wide receivers have gone for 1,000 yards, and then switched teams the next year. Of the 26 new teams taking the keys to the productive pass catchers, 18 of them finished with more passing yards the next year, and 18 scored more touchdowns on pass plays. Just eight (less than a third) finished with fewer passing yards, and only six finished with fewer touchdown passes. (Two finished with the same touchdown total).
These teams are listed below. And to clarify on this one, I’m not looking at the player’s numbers here, I’m looking at the team. In general, when teams have added a 1,000-yard wide receiver, they have tended to do better. On average, these teams have finished the seasons with 3 more touchdowns and 240 more passing yards (about 15 per game).
(And on this one, I have put the losers in bold. If a number is in bold, that means the team went in the wrong direction in that category.)
| TEAMS GAINING 1,000-YARD RECEIVERS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Gained | Yards | TD |
| 1994 | Denver | Anthony Miller | 322 | -9 |
| 1995 | Arizona | Rob Moore | 609 | 6 |
| 1995 | Cleveland | Andre Rison | 503 | 1 |
| 1996 | NY Jets | Jeff Graham | 782 | 2 |
| 1996 | Buffalo | Quinn Early | 210 | -6 |
| 1998 | Tennessee | Yancey Thigpen | 778 | 1 |
| 1998 | Kansas City | Derrick Alexander | 343 | -5 |
| 1999 | Miami | Tony Martin | 154 | -3 |
| 1999 | Dallas | Rocket Ismail | -268 | 3 |
| 2000 | Tampa Bay | Keyshawn Johnson | 43 | 0 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | Keenan McCardell | 44 | 10 |
| 2002 | Indianapolis | Qadry Ismail | -27 | 0 |
| 2002 | Kansas City | Johnnie Morton | -100 | 10 |
| 2003 | Washington | Laveranues Coles | -250 | -3 |
| 2003 | Atlanta | Peerless Price | -753 | -4 |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | Terrell Owens | 935 | 15 |
| 2005 | Baltimore | Derrick Mason | 822 | 4 |
| 2005 | Chicago | Muhsin Muhammad | -440 | 2 |
| 2006 | San Francisco | Antonio Bryant | 700 | 8 |
| 2009 | Buffalo | Terrell Owens | -513 | 3 |
| 2010 | NY Jets | Santonio Holmes | 824 | 8 |
| 2010 | Miami | Brandon Marshall | 359 | 2 |
| 2010 | Baltimore | Anquan Boldin | -8 | 4 |
| 2012 | Tampa Bay | Vincent Jackson | 306 | 10 |
| 2012 | Chicago | Brandon Marshall | -48 | 3 |
| 2013 | Denver | Wes Welker | 901 | 18 |
Looking at the other end of these transactions (same players but the other teams), the numbers are predictably almost reversed. In these cases, only 6 of the 26 teams finished with more passing yards. And only 8 of the 26 finished with more touchdown passes. One tie in each category, so 19 finished with fewer yards and 17 finished with fewer TD passes.
On average, these teams finished with 4.1 fewer TD passes in the first season without said stud receiver, and they passed for 262 fewer yards (about 16 per game).
I’m flipping the bold on this one. Teams with better numbers (teams bucking the trend) are in bold.
| TEAMS LOSING 1,000-YARD RECEIVERS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | Team | Lost | Yards | TD |
| 1994 | San Diego | Anthony Miller | 236 | 2 |
| 1995 | NY Jets | Rob Moore | -194 | 2 |
| 1995 | Atlanta | Andre Rison | 112 | 1 |
| 1996 | Chicago | Jeff Graham | -488 | -10 |
| 1996 | New Orleans | Quinn Early | -933 | -13 |
| 1998 | Pittsburgh | Yancey Thigpen | -434 | -9 |
| 1998 | Baltimore | Derrick Alexander | -777 | -9 |
| 1999 | Carolina | Rocket Ismail | 823 | 11 |
| 1999 | Atlanta | Tony Martin | -53 | -6 |
| 2000 | NY Jets | Keyshawn Johnson | 1022 | 1 |
| 2002 | Baltimore | Qadry Ismail | -477 | 2 |
| 2002 | Detroit | Johnnie Morton | -801 | 1 |
| 2002 | Jacksonville | Keenan McCardell | -651 | -2 |
| 2003 | NY Jets | Laveranues Coles | -95 | -5 |
| 2003 | Buffalo | Peerless Price | -1295 | -13 |
| 2004 | San Francisco | Terrell Owens | -111 | -9 |
| 2005 | Carolina | Muhsin Muhammad | -404 | -4 |
| 2005 | Tennessee | Derrick Mason | -136 | -7 |
| 2006 | Cleveland | Antonio Bryant | -76 | 0 |
| 2009 | Dallas | Terrell Owens | 495 | -3 |
| 2010 | Denver | Brandon Marshall | 482 | 4 |
| 2010 | Pittsburgh | Santonio Holmes | -606 | -6 |
| 2010 | Arizona | Anquan Boldin | -936 | -17 |
| 2012 | San Diego | Vincent Jackson | -1018 | -1 |
| 2012 | Miami | Brandon Marshall | 0 | -7 |
| 2013 | New England | Wes Welker | -501 | -9 |
In a rough sense, the numbers suggest what we probably all thought all along without getting any numbers out. Philadelphia’s passing production should decline this season, while Washington should improve.
—Ian Allan