What are we supposed to make of Kendall Wright? He caught 94 passes last year but scored only 2 TDs. In typical fantasy formats, it’s tough for a guy to have a good season without getting in the end zone.
When a receiver has a year like this – lots of catches but not many touchdowns – should we assume/project that he will also be a poor scorer the next season? Is there something about his game that limits his scoring potential? Or is just a chance deal, where Wright is just as likely to score 8 TDs this year (that is, he just got unlucky last year).
For this particular player, we know that he’s not a speedster, and he’s not particularly big, so he’s not getting behind defenses for big plays. He’s also not taking short passes, making guys miss and turning them into 50-yard touchdowns. He doesn’t have that skill set, and with his size he hasn’t been a featured guy in the red zone.
They’ve got a new coaching staff, which could reshuffle their playbook a bit. That could help him.
But historically, when you look at other wide receivers like Wright, they haven’t tended to be big scorers the next year either.
In the last 20 years, there have been 15 guys who caught 80-plus passes and fewer than 4 TDs. All caught 1-3 TDs. The next year, only one of those guys made it up to 6 TDs. Brandon Marshall. Five made it up to 5 TDs (which is still not quite good enough). Six again scored under 4 TDs, and three scored exactly 4 TDs.
Not an awe-inspiring bunch.
| 80-PLUS RECEPTIONS AND 1-3 TDs -- The Next Year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Receiver | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1993 | Hou. | Curtis Duncan | 41 | 456 | 11.1 | 3 |
| 1994 | Sea. | Brian Blades | 81 | 1086 | 13.4 | 4 |
| 1997 | Jac. | Keenan McCardell | 85 | 1164 | 13.7 | 5 |
| 1997 | NYJ | Wayne Chrebet | 58 | 799 | 13.8 | 3 |
| 1999 | Ariz. | Frank Sanders | 79 | 954 | 12.1 | 1 |
| 2002 | T.B. | Keyshawn Johnson | 76 | 1088 | 14.3 | 5 |
| 2003 | N.E. | Troy Brown | 40 | 472 | 11.8 | 4 |
| 2003 | Oak. | Tim Brown | 52 | 567 | 10.9 | 2 |
| 2005 | NYJ | Laveranues Coles | 73 | 845 | 11.6 | 5 |
| 2006 | Balt. | Derrick Mason | 68 | 750 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 2008 | G.B. | Donald Driver | 74 | 1012 | 13.7 | 5 |
| 2008 | NYJ | Jerricho Cotchery | 71 | 858 | 12.1 | 5 |
| 2009 | N.E. | Wes Welker | 123 | 1348 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 2011 | Mia. | Brandon Marshall | 81 | 1214 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 2011 | St.L. | Danny Amendola | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| 2014 | Tenn. | Kendall Wright | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan