I had a thought on A.J. Green that I’d like to share with the rest of the class. Trying to figure out how good he might be.
Green, I think, is a superstar. He’s a Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss type of guy. Great talent, and we’ve seen the production to back it up.
In his last two years, Green has averaged 98 catches and 11 touchdowns.
But has he reached his ceiling? Or can he get even better?
As I look at the other great pass catchers of recent years, my thinking is he’s still ascending.
Green won’t get any faster, and he won’t jump any higher, but there’s also the experience/polish/know-how factor, and that’s actually more important.
Look at the greatest receivers we’ve seen. Not only Johnson and Moss, but Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Larry Fitzgerald, Sterling Sharpe, Andre Johnson and Terrell Owens.
If you look at the two best seasons by each of those eight guys, only 2 of those 16 seasons came in the first three years of anybody’s career. The majority – 11 of 16 – came between the 4th and 7th years. That’s the window Green is entering right now. I think he can still be a little better.
TOP-2 SEASONS BY SUPERSTAR RECEIVERS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exp | Year | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
2nd | 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald | 103 | 1409 | 13.7 | 10 |
3rd | 1987 | Jerry Rice | 65 | 1078 | 16.6 | 22 |
4th | 1999 | Marvin Harrison | 115 | 1663 | 14.5 | 12 |
5th | 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 96 | 1681 | 17.5 | 16 |
5th | 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 96 | 1431 | 14.9 | 12 |
5th | 1992 | Sterling Sharpe | 108 | 1461 | 13.5 | 13 |
6th | 2001 | Marvin Harrison | 109 | 1524 | 14.0 | 15 |
6th | 2001 | Terrell Owens | 93 | 1412 | 15.2 | 16 |
6th | 2012 | Calvin Johnson | 122 | 1964 | 16.1 | 5 |
6th | 2003 | Randy Moss | 111 | 1632 | 14.7 | 17 |
6th | 2008 | Andre Johnson | 115 | 1575 | 13.7 | 8 |
7th | 1994 | Sterling Sharpe | 94 | 1119 | 11.9 | 18 |
7th | 2009 | Andre Johnson | 101 | 1569 | 15.5 | 9 |
10th | 2007 | Randy Moss | 98 | 1493 | 15.2 | 23 |
11th | 1995 | Jerry Rice | 122 | 1848 | 15.1 | 15 |
12th | 2007 | Terrell Owens | 81 | 1355 | 16.7 | 15 |
—Ian Allan