What direction should one go at the top of the first round? I have completed the process of carefully looking at each team and each player; now I’m comparing those projections and putting together at rankings.
At the running back position, there are four guys who project to be pretty similar at the top. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte. Straight off the numbers, these guys are really close, so then it becomes a question of which guy you really like.
For me, Charles doesn’t quite fit because they’ll spell him a little more this year, and their offensive line isn’t as good, having lost two starters. He’s going down at least a little in value.
Matt Forte doesn’t seem like a No. 1 guy. He might not be talented enough.
Both Forte and Adrian Peterson are also 29 years old. I’m not saying 29 year olds can’t play. It’s my belief that guys can play when they’re 30, and it’s really when guys get to 31 that we need to start being careful.
That said, when you’re looking to go big game hunting – when you want a monster season – your odds go down with a guy who is 29. When you look at the great backs in NFL history, then look at where they played their best seasons, you will seldom see a guy who’s 29. The peak years, where somebody really slams it out of the park, tends to come when a guy is 24-27 years old.
On those grounds, I think Forte and Peterson are good first-round picks – worthy selections who should go in the first half of round one – but they’re unlikely to put up the jaw-dropping seasons that you hope for from the first player chosen.
Here’s a listing of the top 30 running backs of the last 30 years. This is using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards. Only two of these guys were 29 years old on opening day. None were older.
McCoy will be 26 on opening day. He’s still in that window where it looks more likely he might put up an awesome season. Not much difference between these four backs, but I’m playing the age this year and going with McCoy as the top guy on my board.
| TOP RUNNING BACKS OF THE LAST 30 YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | Year | Player | Run | Rec | TD |
| 27 | 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1,815 | 508 | 31 |
| 27 | 2000 | Marshall Faulk | 1,359 | 830 | 26 |
| 29 | 2003 | Priest Holmes | 1,420 | 690 | 27 |
| 28 | 2002 | Priest Holmes | 1,615 | 672 | 24 |
| 26 | 1995 | Emmitt Smith | 1,773 | 375 | 25 |
| 28 | 2005 | Shaun Alexander | 1,880 | 78 | 28 |
| 25 | 1998 | Terrell Davis | 2,008 | 217 | 23 |
| 23 | 2009 | Chris Johnson | 2,006 | 503 | 16 |
| 26 | 2003 | Ahman Green | 1,883 | 367 | 20 |
| 24 | 2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1,645 | 725 | 17 |
| 28 | 2001 | Marshall Faulk | 1,382 | 765 | 21 |
| 22 | 2000 | Edgerrin James | 1,709 | 594 | 18 |
| 25 | 2005 | Larry Johnson | 1,750 | 343 | 21 |
| 26 | 2006 | Larry Johnson | 1,789 | 410 | 19 |
| 24 | 2010 | Arian Foster | 1,616 | 604 | 18 |
| 23 | 2006 | Steven Jackson | 1,528 | 806 | 16 |
| 25 | 2002 | Ricky Williams | 1,853 | 363 | 17 |
| 29 | 1997 | Barry Sanders | 2,053 | 305 | 14 |
| 23 | 1992 | Emmitt Smith | 1,713 | 335 | 19 |
| 26 | 1999 | Marshall Faulk | 1,381 | 1,048 | 12 |
| 21 | 1999 | Edgerrin James | 1,553 | 586 | 17 |
| 25 | 1985 | Marcus Allen | 1,759 | 555 | 14 |
| 26 | 2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1,462 | 370 | 20 |
| 25 | 1994 | Emmitt Smith | 1,484 | 341 | 22 |
| 25 | 1998 | Jamal Anderson | 1,846 | 319 | 16 |
| 26 | 2013 | Jamaal Charles | 1,287 | 693 | 19 |
| 27 | 2012 | Adrian Peterson | 2,097 | 217 | 13 |
| 24 | 2003 | Jamal Lewis | 2,066 | 205 | 14 |
| 23 | 1984 | Eric Dickerson | 2,105 | 139 | 14 |
| 23 | 2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1,683 | 489 | 15 |
—Ian Allan