There’s something to be said for drafting running backs from good teams. (And specifically here, I’m talking about Marshawn Lynch and Montee Ball.) Good teams score more points and are in the red zone more – that’s how they’re winning – so they tend to finish with better rushing production.
In the last 10 years, 26 teams have won at least 13 games. All of those teams scored at least 11 rushing touchdowns. All but five of them scored at least 14. And as a group, they averaged 120 rushing yards per game.
If you buy into the theory that Denver will win 13-plus games, then the logical extension is that Montee Ball will have a damn fine season, probably putting up something like 1,600 combined yards and a dozen touchdowns.
TEAMS WINNING 13-PLUS GAMES SINCE 2004 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Run | TDR |
2004 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2,464 | 16 |
2004 | New England Patriots | 2,134 | 15 |
2005 | Seattle Seahawks | 2,457 | 29 |
2005 | Denver Broncos | 2,539 | 25 |
2005 | Indianapolis Colts | 1,703 | 18 |
2006 | San Diego Chargers | 2,578 | 32 |
2006 | Chicago Bears | 1,918 | 14 |
2006 | Baltimore Ravens | 1,637 | 11 |
2007 | Indianapolis Colts | 1,706 | 19 |
2007 | New England Patriots | 1,849 | 17 |
2007 | Dallas Cowboys | 1,746 | 14 |
2007 | Green Bay Packers | 1,597 | 13 |
2008 | Tennessee Titans | 2,199 | 24 |
2009 | New Orleans Saints | 2,106 | 21 |
2009 | San Diego Chargers | 1,423 | 17 |
2009 | Indianapolis Colts | 1,294 | 16 |
2010 | New England Patriots | 1,973 | 19 |
2010 | Atlanta Falcons | 1,891 | 14 |
2011 | New England Patriots | 1,764 | 18 |
2011 | New Orleans Saints | 2,127 | 16 |
2011 | San Francisco 49ers | 2,044 | 14 |
2011 | Green Bay Packers | 1,558 | 12 |
2012 | Atlanta Falcons | 1,397 | 12 |
2012 | Denver Broncos | 1,832 | 12 |
2013 | Denver Broncos | 1,873 | 16 |
2013 | Seattle Seahawks | 2,188 | 14 |
—Ian Allan