Here’s another take on strength of schedule. For this one, I’m removing the Week 17 games. The vast majority of fantasy leagues, after all, finish before that time, so why include those stats in your calculations?
If you’re scheduled to play Jacksonville, Oakland or Cleveland in Week 17, that doesn’t really matter, since your fantasy league will be over.
Similarly, teams like Arizona and St. Louis duck out of one game against the 49ers and Seahawks.
Looking at winning percentage, the two hardest schedules project to belong to the two Super Bowl teams, Denver and Seattle. The three easiest schedules project to belong to three teams from the AFC South.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-16) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 101 | 139 | 0 | .421 |
Indianapolis | 103 | 137 | 0 | .429 |
Houston | 109 | 131 | 0 | .454 |
NY Giants | 109 | 131 | 0 | .454 |
Pittsburgh | 109 | 131 | 0 | .454 |
Cleveland | 111 | 129 | 0 | .463 |
Cincinnati | 112 | 128 | 0 | .467 |
Tampa Bay | 112 | 126 | 2 | .471 |
Minnesota | 113 | 125 | 2 | .475 |
Jacksonville | 114 | 126 | 0 | .475 |
Baltimore | 114 | 126 | 0 | .475 |
Philadelphia | 115 | 124 | 1 | .481 |
Buffalo | 115 | 123 | 2 | .483 |
New Orleans | 115 | 123 | 2 | .483 |
Carolina | 116 | 122 | 2 | .488 |
Detroit | 116 | 121 | 3 | .490 |
Washington | 117 | 122 | 1 | .490 |
Atlanta | 118 | 120 | 2 | .496 |
Chicago | 120 | 117 | 3 | .506 |
Miami | 121 | 117 | 2 | .508 |
Green Bay | 121 | 117 | 2 | .508 |
Dallas | 122 | 118 | 0 | .508 |
NY Jets | 124 | 114 | 2 | .521 |
New England | 125 | 113 | 2 | .525 |
Arizona | 128 | 112 | 0 | .533 |
St. Louis | 131 | 108 | 1 | .548 |
San Diego | 133 | 107 | 0 | .554 |
San Francisco | 134 | 106 | 0 | .558 |
Kansas City | 134 | 106 | 0 | .558 |
Oakland | 135 | 105 | 0 | .563 |
Seattle | 136 | 103 | 1 | .569 |
Denver | 142 | 98 | 0 | .592 |
If you prefer looking at points allowed by defenses rather than wins, the three hardest schedules still belong to the same three teams – Seahawks, Broncos, Raiders.
Those three AFC South teams are still in the top 5, and they’re joined by Miami and Buffalo.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 1-16) | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Indianapolis | 24.9 |
Miami | 24.6 |
Tennessee | 24.5 |
Buffalo | 24.5 |
Detroit | 24.5 |
Houston | 24.3 |
NY Giants | 24.2 |
NY Jets | 24.2 |
Minnesota | 24.0 |
New England | 23.9 |
Green Bay | 23.9 |
Tampa Bay | 23.8 |
Philadelphia | 23.6 |
New Orleans | 23.6 |
Jacksonville | 23.6 |
Carolina | 23.5 |
Chicago | 23.4 |
Washington | 23.4 |
Cincinnati | 23.3 |
Dallas | 23.2 |
Atlanta | 23.0 |
Cleveland | 23.0 |
Pittsburgh | 22.9 |
San Francisco | 22.8 |
St. Louis | 22.8 |
Arizona | 22.8 |
San Diego | 22.7 |
Kansas City | 22.7 |
Baltimore | 22.5 |
Seattle | 22.5 |
Oakland | 21.6 |
Denver | 21.0 |
—Ian Allan