Fantasy Index

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Strength of schedule

Seahawks, Broncos will play hard schedules

Here’s another take on strength of schedule. For this one, I’m removing the Week 17 games. The vast majority of fantasy leagues, after all, finish before that time, so why include those stats in your calculations?

If you’re scheduled to play Jacksonville, Oakland or Cleveland in Week 17, that doesn’t really matter, since your fantasy league will be over.

Similarly, teams like Arizona and St. Louis duck out of one game against the 49ers and Seahawks.

Looking at winning percentage, the two hardest schedules project to belong to the two Super Bowl teams, Denver and Seattle. The three easiest schedules project to belong to three teams from the AFC South.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-16)
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee1011390.421
Indianapolis1031370.429
Houston1091310.454
NY Giants1091310.454
Pittsburgh1091310.454
Cleveland1111290.463
Cincinnati1121280.467
Tampa Bay1121262.471
Minnesota1131252.475
Jacksonville1141260.475
Baltimore1141260.475
Philadelphia1151241.481
Buffalo1151232.483
New Orleans1151232.483
Carolina1161222.488
Detroit1161213.490
Washington1171221.490
Atlanta1181202.496
Chicago1201173.506
Miami1211172.508
Green Bay1211172.508
Dallas1221180.508
NY Jets1241142.521
New England1251132.525
Arizona1281120.533
St. Louis1311081.548
San Diego1331070.554
San Francisco1341060.558
Kansas City1341060.558
Oakland1351050.563
Seattle1361031.569
Denver142980.592

If you prefer looking at points allowed by defenses rather than wins, the three hardest schedules still belong to the same three teams – Seahawks, Broncos, Raiders.

Those three AFC South teams are still in the top 5, and they’re joined by Miami and Buffalo.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 1-16)
TeamPoints
Indianapolis24.9
Miami24.6
Tennessee24.5
Buffalo24.5
Detroit24.5
Houston24.3
NY Giants24.2
NY Jets24.2
Minnesota24.0
New England23.9
Green Bay23.9
Tampa Bay23.8
Philadelphia23.6
New Orleans23.6
Jacksonville23.6
Carolina23.5
Chicago23.4
Washington23.4
Cincinnati23.3
Dallas23.2
Atlanta23.0
Cleveland23.0
Pittsburgh22.9
San Francisco22.8
St. Louis22.8
Arizona22.8
San Diego22.7
Kansas City22.7
Baltimore22.5
Seattle22.5
Oakland21.6
Denver21.0

—Ian Allan

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