Fantasy Index

Scheduletron

April 25, 2014

Saints could march early

New Orleans has easiest opening schedule

Let me weigh in briefly on the schedule. It’s a subject I’ll look at more closely in the future, but I’ll toss out an initial batch of numbers now.

It’s nice to get a good start in a league. You want to have a winning record after those first few weeks, putting yourself in position to grow on that and continue to build a playoff team. You start the season 1-4 or 2-4, and you’re kind of fighting on uphill battle – the margin for error gets smaller.

With that in mind, I offer the strength of schedule for each team boiled down to just those first five games. So this is Weeks 1-5 for most teams, and Weeks 1-6 for teams with an early bye. Then you look at the wins and losses and points allowed by teams last year, and you get some idea of how those initial schedules shake out.

No effort here to make adjustments for how teams will change. I’ll get into that later in the summer. Atlanta went only 4-12 last year, for example, but that doesn’t look like a 4-12 team. Falcons might win the NFC South. Carolina and Kansas City could be a lot worse. And so on.

But just using the 2013 data, the easiest opening schedules belong to the Saints, Giants and Texans. All of those teams in their first five games face opponents that (combined) last year won fewer than 30 games and lost more than 50.

And the hardest initial schedules belong to the Broncos, 49ers and Kansas City. Bears and Ravens are up there.

SCHEDULE / WINS (First 5 games)
TeamWLTPct
New Orleans25541.319
NY Giants26540.325
Houston28520.350
Pittsburgh32480.400
Buffalo34460.425
Carolina35450.438
Washington36440.450
NY Jets36431.456
Philadelphia37430.463
Atlanta38411.481
Oakland39410.488
Dallas39410.488
St. Louis39401.494
New England39401.494
Jacksonville41390.513
San Diego41390.513
Seattle41381.519
Green Bay41381.519
Miami41381.519
Detroit41381.519
Indianapolis42380.525
Cleveland42380.525
Tampa Bay42380.525
Minnesota42371.531
Cincinnati43370.538
Arizona44360.550
Tennessee45350.563
Baltimore46340.575
Chicago46331.581
San Francisco47330.588
Kansas City52280.650
Denver53270.663

Shifting the focus and looking instead at points allowed (rather than wins) the easiest schedules still show New Orleans and Houston at the top. Seattle and the Jets are the other two franchises that will face opposition allowing 26-plus points per game (again, just in those first five).

Hardest schedules again have three of the teams that graded out hardest via wins – Denver, Baltimore and Chicago.

SCHEDULE / POINTS (First 5 games)
TeamPoints
New Orleans26.9
Houston26.7
Seattle26.1
NY Jets26.0
NY Giants25.6
Buffalo24.6
Carolina24.6
Indianapolis24.5
St. Louis24.4
Green Bay24.4
San Francisco24.0
Jacksonville23.9
Miami23.9
Philadelphia23.7
Arizona23.5
New England23.5
Minnesota23.5
Washington23.4
Atlanta23.3
Pittsburgh23.0
Oakland23.0
Detroit22.8
Tennessee22.3
San Diego22.2
Cleveland22.2
Cincinnati21.9
Dallas21.9
Kansas City21.6
Tampa Bay21.5
Chicago21.5
Baltimore20.7
Denver19.8

Just another indication that with Peyton Manning, the question isn’t whether he can throw 50-plus touchdowns again. It’s whether he can throw 40-plus.

Strength of schedule isn’t a silver bullet. It’s just another piece of the puzzle. But players from teams with easier schedules tend to see a slight bump in production. So if you’re looking to come out of the gates strong, it could make sense to emphasize (and avoid) some of the teams here.

—Ian Allan

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