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Running backs

Should you select a 'can't miss' running back in round one?

Should you take a running back in the first round? That tends to be the big strategy. It’s tough to find good running backs, so you want to fill that position first.

But selecting a running back in the first round isn’t the same as selecting a good running back.

Some of these guys will miss. Some will miss badly.

There’s tremendous turnover at this position. That’s the nature of the beast.

In ballpark terms, if a running back ranks in the top 10, there’s about a one in three chance that he’ll rank in the top 10 again the next season. We all tend to agree that Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson should be the first three picks in typical drafts. And probably Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy not far behind.

But the historical record indicates that probably only about 2-3 of those backs will actually rank in the top 10 this year.

Here are the numbers from the last 10 years, with guys who went top 10 in back-to-back seasons in bold.

TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2004
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Priest Holmes373.01197.912
Ahman Green345.02195.814
LaDainian Tomlinson343.03285.63
Jamal Lewis311.14154.225
Clinton Portis276.55201.011
Shaun Alexander269.06306.61
Deuce McAllister263.77184.217
Fred Taylor236.28174.920
Edgerrin James221.19259.16
Travis Henry217.41037.174
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2005
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Shaun Alexander306.61363.81
Tiki Barber299.62307.04
LaDainian Tomlinson285.63315.23
Curtis Martin278.24115.329
Domanick Davis261.65167.317
Edgerrin James259.16268.35
Corey Dillon253.87169.416
Rudi Johnson225.88226.87
Willis McGahee207.79172.513
Brian Westbrook205.510167.318
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2006
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Shaun Alexander363.81136.428
Larry Johnson335.32333.92
LaDainian Tomlinson315.23426.31
Tiki Barber307.04242.77
Edgerrin James268.35173.620
Clinton Portis245.26111.336
Rudi Johnson226.87215.39
LaMont Jordan226.8862.855
Thomas Jones201.89172.422
Mike Anderson200.61029.773
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2007
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
LaDainian Tomlinson426.31306.91
Larry Johnson333.9298.540
Steven Jackson329.43167.314
Frank Gore272.04189.89
Willie Parker267.65160.016
Brian Westbrook257.66282.42
Maurice Jones-Drew233.77177.513
Rudi Johnson215.3886.747
Deuce McAllister191.5910.7103
Ladell Betts189.91062.954
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2008
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
LaDainian Tomlinson306.91225.67
Brian Westbrook282.42217.810
Adrian Peterson238.93248.53
Joseph Addai235.64117.039
Clinton Portis235.15224.58
Jamal Lewis221.26142.025
Marion Barber197.77184.216
Willis McGahee191.88126.433
Frank Gore189.89190.913
Edgerrin James184.61079.952
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2009
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
DeAngelo Williams285.61180.914
Michael Turner276.02150.622
Adrian Peterson248.53289.92
Matt Forte243.54166.018
Thomas Jones241.95230.06
Steve Slaton225.96127.433
LaDainian Tomlinson225.67160.419
Clinton Portis224.5867.153
Maurice Jones-Drew222.99272.53
Brian Westbrook217.81057.561
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2010
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Chris Johnson348.91232.95
Adrian Peterson289.92241.93
Maurice Jones-Drew272.53206.112
Ray Rice252.14213.611
Frank Gore230.65160.520
Thomas Jones230.06137.825
Ricky Williams218.5799.438
Joseph Addai198.4885.946
Steven Jackson197.89198.414
Jamaal Charles197.710241.54
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2011
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Arian Foster330.01256.14
Peyton Hillis243.4289.741
Adrian Peterson241.93188.99
Chris Johnson232.94170.516
Darren McFadden226.45106.834
Rashard Mendenhall222.06162.219
LeSean McCoy221.27282.42
Michael Turner217.68216.86
Matt Forte217.69172.715
Ray Rice213.610300.81
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2012
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Ray Rice300.81222.16
LeSean McCoy282.42151.321
Maurice Jones-Drew264.0362.052
Arian Foster256.14266.12
Marshawn Lynch219.65250.64
Michael Turner216.86158.818
Darren Sproles191.37141.122
Ryan Mathews190.68101.930
Adrian Peterson188.99311.41
Michael Bush187.51079.443
TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2013
Running BackPrev PtsPrev RkPointsRank
Adrian Peterson311.41209.76
Arian Foster266.1286.545
Doug Martin264.6358.258
Marshawn Lynch250.64241.34
Alfred Morris247.05177.314
Ray Rice222.16124.127
C.J. Spiller218.37123.828
Jamaal Charles210.58312.01
Frank Gore204.89180.913
Trent Richardson203.710111.935

—Ian Allan

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