Should you take a running back in the first round? That tends to be the big strategy. It’s tough to find good running backs, so you want to fill that position first.
But selecting a running back in the first round isn’t the same as selecting a good running back.
Some of these guys will miss. Some will miss badly.
There’s tremendous turnover at this position. That’s the nature of the beast.
In ballpark terms, if a running back ranks in the top 10, there’s about a one in three chance that he’ll rank in the top 10 again the next season. We all tend to agree that Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson should be the first three picks in typical drafts. And probably Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy not far behind.
But the historical record indicates that probably only about 2-3 of those backs will actually rank in the top 10 this year.
Here are the numbers from the last 10 years, with guys who went top 10 in back-to-back seasons in bold.
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2004 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Priest Holmes | 373.0 | 1 | 197.9 | 12 |
| Ahman Green | 345.0 | 2 | 195.8 | 14 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 343.0 | 3 | 285.6 | 3 |
| Jamal Lewis | 311.1 | 4 | 154.2 | 25 |
| Clinton Portis | 276.5 | 5 | 201.0 | 11 |
| Shaun Alexander | 269.0 | 6 | 306.6 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 263.7 | 7 | 184.2 | 17 |
| Fred Taylor | 236.2 | 8 | 174.9 | 20 |
| Edgerrin James | 221.1 | 9 | 259.1 | 6 |
| Travis Henry | 217.4 | 10 | 37.1 | 74 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2005 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Shaun Alexander | 306.6 | 1 | 363.8 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 299.6 | 2 | 307.0 | 4 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 285.6 | 3 | 315.2 | 3 |
| Curtis Martin | 278.2 | 4 | 115.3 | 29 |
| Domanick Davis | 261.6 | 5 | 167.3 | 17 |
| Edgerrin James | 259.1 | 6 | 268.3 | 5 |
| Corey Dillon | 253.8 | 7 | 169.4 | 16 |
| Rudi Johnson | 225.8 | 8 | 226.8 | 7 |
| Willis McGahee | 207.7 | 9 | 172.5 | 13 |
| Brian Westbrook | 205.5 | 10 | 167.3 | 18 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Shaun Alexander | 363.8 | 1 | 136.4 | 28 |
| Larry Johnson | 335.3 | 2 | 333.9 | 2 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 315.2 | 3 | 426.3 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 307.0 | 4 | 242.7 | 7 |
| Edgerrin James | 268.3 | 5 | 173.6 | 20 |
| Clinton Portis | 245.2 | 6 | 111.3 | 36 |
| Rudi Johnson | 226.8 | 7 | 215.3 | 9 |
| LaMont Jordan | 226.8 | 8 | 62.8 | 55 |
| Thomas Jones | 201.8 | 9 | 172.4 | 22 |
| Mike Anderson | 200.6 | 10 | 29.7 | 73 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2007 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 426.3 | 1 | 306.9 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 333.9 | 2 | 98.5 | 40 |
| Steven Jackson | 329.4 | 3 | 167.3 | 14 |
| Frank Gore | 272.0 | 4 | 189.8 | 9 |
| Willie Parker | 267.6 | 5 | 160.0 | 16 |
| Brian Westbrook | 257.6 | 6 | 282.4 | 2 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 233.7 | 7 | 177.5 | 13 |
| Rudi Johnson | 215.3 | 8 | 86.7 | 47 |
| Deuce McAllister | 191.5 | 9 | 10.7 | 103 |
| Ladell Betts | 189.9 | 10 | 62.9 | 54 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 306.9 | 1 | 225.6 | 7 |
| Brian Westbrook | 282.4 | 2 | 217.8 | 10 |
| Adrian Peterson | 238.9 | 3 | 248.5 | 3 |
| Joseph Addai | 235.6 | 4 | 117.0 | 39 |
| Clinton Portis | 235.1 | 5 | 224.5 | 8 |
| Jamal Lewis | 221.2 | 6 | 142.0 | 25 |
| Marion Barber | 197.7 | 7 | 184.2 | 16 |
| Willis McGahee | 191.8 | 8 | 126.4 | 33 |
| Frank Gore | 189.8 | 9 | 190.9 | 13 |
| Edgerrin James | 184.6 | 10 | 79.9 | 52 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2009 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| DeAngelo Williams | 285.6 | 1 | 180.9 | 14 |
| Michael Turner | 276.0 | 2 | 150.6 | 22 |
| Adrian Peterson | 248.5 | 3 | 289.9 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 243.5 | 4 | 166.0 | 18 |
| Thomas Jones | 241.9 | 5 | 230.0 | 6 |
| Steve Slaton | 225.9 | 6 | 127.4 | 33 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 225.6 | 7 | 160.4 | 19 |
| Clinton Portis | 224.5 | 8 | 67.1 | 53 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 222.9 | 9 | 272.5 | 3 |
| Brian Westbrook | 217.8 | 10 | 57.5 | 61 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Chris Johnson | 348.9 | 1 | 232.9 | 5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 289.9 | 2 | 241.9 | 3 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 272.5 | 3 | 206.1 | 12 |
| Ray Rice | 252.1 | 4 | 213.6 | 11 |
| Frank Gore | 230.6 | 5 | 160.5 | 20 |
| Thomas Jones | 230.0 | 6 | 137.8 | 25 |
| Ricky Williams | 218.5 | 7 | 99.4 | 38 |
| Joseph Addai | 198.4 | 8 | 85.9 | 46 |
| Steven Jackson | 197.8 | 9 | 198.4 | 14 |
| Jamaal Charles | 197.7 | 10 | 241.5 | 4 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2011 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Arian Foster | 330.0 | 1 | 256.1 | 4 |
| Peyton Hillis | 243.4 | 2 | 89.7 | 41 |
| Adrian Peterson | 241.9 | 3 | 188.9 | 9 |
| Chris Johnson | 232.9 | 4 | 170.5 | 16 |
| Darren McFadden | 226.4 | 5 | 106.8 | 34 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 222.0 | 6 | 162.2 | 19 |
| LeSean McCoy | 221.2 | 7 | 282.4 | 2 |
| Michael Turner | 217.6 | 8 | 216.8 | 6 |
| Matt Forte | 217.6 | 9 | 172.7 | 15 |
| Ray Rice | 213.6 | 10 | 300.8 | 1 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Ray Rice | 300.8 | 1 | 222.1 | 6 |
| LeSean McCoy | 282.4 | 2 | 151.3 | 21 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 264.0 | 3 | 62.0 | 52 |
| Arian Foster | 256.1 | 4 | 266.1 | 2 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 219.6 | 5 | 250.6 | 4 |
| Michael Turner | 216.8 | 6 | 158.8 | 18 |
| Darren Sproles | 191.3 | 7 | 141.1 | 22 |
| Ryan Mathews | 190.6 | 8 | 101.9 | 30 |
| Adrian Peterson | 188.9 | 9 | 311.4 | 1 |
| Michael Bush | 187.5 | 10 | 79.4 | 43 |
| TOP 10 BACKS ENTERING 2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Back | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
| Adrian Peterson | 311.4 | 1 | 209.7 | 6 |
| Arian Foster | 266.1 | 2 | 86.5 | 45 |
| Doug Martin | 264.6 | 3 | 58.2 | 58 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 250.6 | 4 | 241.3 | 4 |
| Alfred Morris | 247.0 | 5 | 177.3 | 14 |
| Ray Rice | 222.1 | 6 | 124.1 | 27 |
| C.J. Spiller | 218.3 | 7 | 123.8 | 28 |
| Jamaal Charles | 210.5 | 8 | 312.0 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 204.8 | 9 | 180.9 | 13 |
| Trent Richardson | 203.7 | 10 | 111.9 | 35 |
—Ian Allan

