Fantasy News
June 07, 2014
Quarterbacks
Hit/miss rates on top-10 quarterbacks
Yesterday I offered a short look at quarterbacks. I noted that if you selected a top-10 running back (based purely on how the guy did the previous year) you had about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a top-10 running back.
Here are the sister numbers for quarterbacks. The success rate is higher. In this group, 57 percent of quarterbacks ranked in the top 10 finished in the top 10 again.
But at quarterback, you’re really look for a top-5 guy to start making a difference at the position. Of these 100 quarterbacks, only 33 of them (1 in 3) finished in the top 5. So that’s kind of interesting, isn’t it? Of the top 10 quarterbacks in any given year, two thirds of them DID NOT finish in the top 10 the previous season.
So when you’re compiling your top 10 quarterbacks for 2014, you should double-check to make sure that at least six of the guys in the top 10 weren’t in the top 10 in 2013.
With quarterbacks, if you want to look at just top 5 guys – the kind of guys typically considered in rounds 1 or 2 in a fantasy draft – 15 of those guys (about 1 in 3) finished outside the top 10. Almost half (22 of 50) went top 5 again. And 34 of 50 (68 percent) at least finished in the top 10.
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2004 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Daunte Culpepper | 342 | 1 | 450 | 1 |
Peyton Manning | 334 | 2 | 428 | 2 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 321 | 3 | 276 | 13 |
Trent Green | 318 | 4 | 348 | 4 |
Marc Bulger | 312 | 5 | 311 | 9 |
Aaron Brooks | 303 | 6 | 318 | 8 |
Brett Favre | 302 | 7 | 332 | 6 |
Brad Johnson | 300 | 8 | 50 | 41 |
Steve McNair | 299 | 9 | 120 | 32 |
Jon Kitna | 295 | 10 | 55 | 39 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2005 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Daunte Culpepper | 450 | 1 | 125 | 31 |
Peyton Manning | 428 | 2 | 304 | 3 |
Donovan McNabb | 358 | 3 | 203 | 20 |
Trent Green | 348 | 4 | 279 | 9 |
Jake Plummer | 339 | 5 | 269 | 13 |
Brett Favre | 332 | 6 | 284 | 8 |
Jake Delhomme | 327 | 7 | 276 | 12 |
Aaron Brooks | 318 | 8 | 236 | 16 |
Marc Bulger | 311 | 9 | 174 | 23 |
Tom Brady | 299 | 10 | 324 | 2 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2006 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Carson Palmer | 332 | 1 | 317 | 5 |
Tom Brady | 324 | 2 | 287 | 7 |
Peyton Manning | 304 | 3 | 373 | 1 |
Eli Manning | 300 | 4 | 260 | 11 |
Drew Bledsoe | 293 | 5 | 101 | 35 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 287 | 6 | 207 | 22 |
Drew Brees | 286 | 7 | 332 | 2 |
Brett Favre | 284 | 8 | 275 | 8 |
Trent Green | 279 | 9 | 101 | 36 |
Michael Vick | 278 | 10 | 320 | 4 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2007 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Peyton Manning | 373 | 1 | 346 | 3 |
Drew Brees | 332 | 2 | 344 | 4 |
Jon Kitna | 322 | 3 | 282 | 11 |
Carson Palmer | 317 | 4 | 312 | 9 |
Marc Bulger | 317 | 5 | 165 | 21 |
Tom Brady | 287 | 6 | 462 | 1 |
Brett Favre | 275 | 7 | 321 | 6 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 269 | 8 | 320 | 7 |
Philip Rivers | 264 | 9 | 251 | 15 |
Eli Manning | 260 | 10 | 272 | 13 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2008 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Tom Brady | 462 | 1 | 4 | 61 |
Tony Romo | 379 | 2 | 281 | 10 |
Peyton Manning | 346 | 3 | 318 | 6 |
Drew Brees | 344 | 4 | 389 | 1 |
Derek Anderson | 332 | 5 | 126 | 32 |
Brett Favre | 321 | 6 | 274 | 11 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 320 | 7 | 255 | 14 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 319 | 8 | 88 | 36 |
Carson Palmer | 312 | 9 | 52 | 41 |
Kurt Warner | 286 | 10 | 349 | 4 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2009 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Drew Brees | 389 | 1 | 371 | 2 |
Aaron Rodgers | 363 | 2 | 409 | 1 |
Jay Cutler | 362 | 3 | 319 | 10 |
Kurt Warner | 349 | 4 | 293 | 13 |
Philip Rivers | 349 | 5 | 336 | 9 |
Peyton Manning | 318 | 6 | 356 | 4 |
Donovan McNabb | 315 | 7 | 296 | 12 |
Matt Cassel | 312 | 8 | 231 | 21 |
David Garrard | 285 | 9 | 292 | 14 |
Tony Romo | 281 | 10 | 345 | 5 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2010 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Aaron Rodgers | 409 | 1 | 368 | 2 |
Drew Brees | 371 | 2 | 363 | 4 |
Matt Schaub | 362 | 3 | 319 | 8 |
Peyton Manning | 356 | 4 | 369 | 1 |
Tony Romo | 345 | 5 | 128 | 31 |
Tom Brady | 344 | 6 | 348 | 6 |
Brett Favre | 343 | 7 | 170 | 28 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 341 | 8 | 258 | 20 |
Philip Rivers | 336 | 9 | 363 | 3 |
Jay Cutler | 319 | 10 | 287 | 13 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2011 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Aaron Rodgers | 368 | 1 | 456 | 2 |
Philip Rivers | 363 | 2 | 351 | 7 |
Michael Vick | 359 | 3 | 302 | 12 |
Tom Brady | 348 | 4 | 447 | 3 |
Eli Manning | 331 | 5 | 370 | 6 |
Matt Schaub | 319 | 6 | 197 | 25 |
Matt Ryan | 313 | 7 | 345 | 8 |
Josh Freeman | 311 | 8 | 295 | 13 |
Carson Palmer | 310 | 9 | 198 | 24 |
Joe Flacco | 296 | 10 | 275 | 15 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2012 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Drew Brees | 476 | 1 | 437 | 1 |
Aaron Rodgers | 456 | 2 | 411 | 2 |
Tom Brady | 447 | 3 | 405 | 3 |
Cam Newton | 445 | 4 | 392 | 4 |
Matthew Stafford | 428 | 5 | 367 | 8 |
Eli Manning | 370 | 6 | 304 | 14 |
Philip Rivers | 351 | 7 | 288 | 19 |
Matt Ryan | 345 | 8 | 384 | 5 |
Tony Romo | 344 | 9 | 372 | 7 |
Mark Sanchez | 324 | 10 | 199 | 28 |
| | | | |
TOP QUARTERBACKS ENTERING 2013 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Drew Brees | 437 | 1 | 437 | 2 |
Aaron Rodgers | 411 | 2 | 207 | 26 |
Tom Brady | 405 | 3 | 323 | 12 |
Cam Newton | 392 | 4 | 359 | 5 |
Matt Ryan | 384 | 5 | 335 | 9 |
Peyton Manning | 384 | 6 | 497 | 1 |
Tony Romo | 372 | 7 | 323 | 11 |
Matthew Stafford | 367 | 8 | 371 | 4 |
Andrew Luck | 366 | 9 | 353 | 7 |
Robert Griffin III | 364 | 10 | 277 | 19 |
| | | | |
—Ian Allan