Fantasy News
June 08, 2014
Franchise wide receivers
Hit/miss rates on top-10 wide receivers
The last couple of days, I’ve offered up stat overviews on running backs and quarterbacks who ranked in the top 10. Namely, when a guy ranks in the top 10 at his position, how many of those guys come back the next year and rank in the top 10 again?
Today I’ll turn my attention to wide receivers. Looking at the top 10 of each of the last 10 years.
The results are similar to running backs. About 1 in 3 finish in the top 10 again.
Of these 100 wide receivers, only 18 (less than 1 in 5) ranked in the top 5. So that’s a sign that when you take a guy like A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, banking on them ranking in the top 5, most of them actually won’t do that. Even looking at top 5 receivers (so 50 of the most productive receivers of the last 10 years) only 13 ranked in the top 5 again the next year (about 1 in 4).
For top 10 receivers (100 receivers spread over the last 10 years) I see:
- 35 of 100 ranked in the top 10.
- 59 of 100 ranked in the top 20
- 26 of 100 (about 1 in 4) ranked outside the top 30.
For top-5 receivers, 24 of those 50 (about half) at least ranked in the top 10 again the next season.
The year-by-year guys. Shown are the top 10 statistical receivers from the previous year, with how they ended up faring in that season (points and positional rank). Scoring system is 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2004 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Randy Moss | 265.2 | 1 | 154.7 | 19 |
Torry Holt | 241.6 | 2 | 197.2 | 6 |
Chad Johnson | 195.5 | 3 | 181.4 | 9 |
Marvin Harrison | 187.2 | 4 | 201.3 | 5 |
Anquan Boldin | 185.7 | 5 | 68.3 | 59 |
Derrick Mason | 178.3 | 6 | 158.8 | 16 |
Hines Ward | 176.3 | 7 | 130.4 | 28 |
Keenan McCardell | 171.4 | 8 | 45.3 | 84 |
Santana Moss | 170.5 | 9 | 113.8 | 33 |
Darrell Jackson | 167.7 | 10 | 163.9 | 13 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2005 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Muhsin Muhammad | 236.5 | 1 | 99.0 | 37 |
Javon Walker | 210.2 | 2 | 2.7 | 157 |
Joe Horn | 207.9 | 3 | 71.4 | 56 |
Terrell Owens | 204.0 | 4 | 112.3 | 32 |
Marvin Harrison | 201.3 | 5 | 186.6 | 7 |
Torry Holt | 197.2 | 6 | 187.1 | 6 |
Drew Bennett | 194.7 | 7 | 97.8 | 38 |
Reggie Wayne | 193.0 | 8 | 135.5 | 21 |
Chad Johnson | 181.4 | 9 | 197.2 | 4 |
Donald Driver | 176.8 | 10 | 152.1 | 13 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2006 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Steve Smith | 234.3 | 1 | 170.6 | 9 |
Santana Moss | 202.3 | 2 | 117.0 | 28 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 200.9 | 3 | 130.6 | 24 |
Chad Johnson | 197.2 | 4 | 178.9 | 4 |
Joey Galloway | 188.7 | 5 | 147.7 | 15 |
Torry Holt | 187.1 | 6 | 178.8 | 5 |
Marvin Harrison | 186.6 | 7 | 208.6 | 1 |
Anquan Boldin | 184.2 | 8 | 144.3 | 19 |
Chris Chambers | 177.8 | 9 | 91.7 | 43 |
Hines Ward | 163.5 | 10 | 133.5 | 22 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2007 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Marvin Harrison | 208.6 | 1 | 30.7 | 98 |
Terrell Owens | 198.0 | 2 | 225.5 | 2 |
Reggie Wayne | 187.0 | 3 | 211.0 | 4 |
Chad Johnson | 178.9 | 4 | 192.0 | 6 |
Torry Holt | 178.8 | 5 | 162.9 | 13 |
Donald Driver | 177.5 | 6 | 116.8 | 31 |
Lee Evans | 177.2 | 7 | 114.9 | 32 |
Roy Williams | 173.0 | 8 | 113.6 | 33 |
Steve Smith | 170.6 | 9 | 142.2 | 18 |
Javon Walker | 162.4 | 10 | 28.7 | 104 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2008 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Randy Moss | 287.3 | 1 | 166.8 | 8 |
Terrell Owens | 225.5 | 2 | 165.2 | 10 |
Braylon Edwards | 224.9 | 3 | 109.3 | 33 |
Reggie Wayne | 211.0 | 4 | 152.5 | 13 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 200.9 | 5 | 215.1 | 1 |
Chad Johnson | 192.0 | 6 | 78.0 | 51 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 186.3 | 7 | 114.4 | 31 |
Marques Colston | 186.2 | 8 | 106.0 | 34 |
Brandon Marshall | 174.5 | 9 | 162.5 | 11 |
Plaxico Burress | 174.5 | 10 | 69.4 | 59 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2009 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Larry Fitzgerald | 215.1 | 1 | 187.2 | 5 |
Calvin Johnson | 207.1 | 2 | 128.4 | 24 |
Andre Johnson | 205.5 | 3 | 212.9 | 1 |
Greg Jennings | 183.2 | 4 | 139.3 | 20 |
Roddy White | 180.2 | 5 | 181.3 | 7 |
Steve Smith | 178.1 | 6 | 142.2 | 18 |
Anquan Boldin | 169.8 | 7 | 132.4 | 21 |
Randy Moss | 166.8 | 8 | 206.4 | 2 |
Antonio Bryant | 166.8 | 9 | 84.0 | 54 |
Terrell Owens | 165.2 | 10 | 118.9 | 26 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2010 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Andre Johnson | 212.9 | 1 | 169.6 | 9 |
Randy Moss | 206.4 | 2 | 69.3 | 66 |
Miles Austin | 198.0 | 3 | 152.1 | 15 |
DeSean Jackson | 188.7 | 4 | 153.6 | 13 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 187.2 | 5 | 151.7 | 16 |
Reggie Wayne | 186.4 | 6 | 171.5 | 7 |
Roddy White | 181.3 | 7 | 202.9 | 3 |
Sidney Rice | 179.2 | 8 | 40.0 | 93 |
Brandon Marshall | 172.0 | 9 | 119.4 | 28 |
Vincent Jackson | 170.7 | 10 | 42.8 | 88 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2011 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Brandon Lloyd | 210.8 | 1 | 126.6 | 24 |
Dwayne Bowe | 206.2 | 2 | 145.9 | 19 |
Roddy White | 202.9 | 3 | 177.6 | 7 |
Greg Jennings | 198.5 | 4 | 148.9 | 16 |
Calvin Johnson | 186.0 | 5 | 264.1 | 1 |
Mike Wallace | 185.7 | 6 | 167.3 | 8 |
Reggie Wayne | 171.5 | 7 | 120.0 | 29 |
Hakeem Nicks | 171.2 | 8 | 161.2 | 11 |
Andre Johnson | 169.6 | 9 | 61.2 | 71 |
Stevie Johnson | 167.3 | 10 | 142.4 | 21 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2012 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Calvin Johnson | 264.1 | 1 | 226.4 | 1 |
Jordy Nelson | 216.3 | 2 | 118.5 | 29 |
Wes Welker | 210.9 | 3 | 171.4 | 12 |
Victor Cruz | 207.6 | 4 | 169.2 | 13 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 189.1 | 5 | 103.8 | 42 |
Steve Smith | 183.4 | 6 | 141.4 | 19 |
Roddy White | 177.6 | 7 | 177.1 | 10 |
Mike Wallace | 167.3 | 8 | 131.6 | 25 |
Vincent Jackson | 164.6 | 9 | 188.4 | 6 |
Marques Colston | 162.3 | 10 | 175.4 | 11 |
| | | | |
TOP-10 RECEIVERS ENTERING 2013 |
Player | Prev Pts | Prev Rk | Points | Rank |
Calvin Johnson | 226.4 | 1 | 221.2 | 2 |
Brandon Marshall | 216.8 | 2 | 205.5 | 5 |
Dez Bryant | 212.2 | 3 | 201.3 | 7 |
Demaryius Thomas | 203.4 | 4 | 227.0 | 1 |
A.J. Green | 201.0 | 5 | 208.6 | 4 |
Vincent Jackson | 188.4 | 6 | 164.4 | 14 |
Eric Decker | 184.4 | 7 | 194.8 | 8 |
Andre Johnson | 183.8 | 8 | 170.7 | 12 |
Julio Jones | 179.8 | 9 | 70.0 | 65 |
Roddy White | 177.1 | 10 | 89.1 | 53 |
| | | | |
—Ian Allan