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Franchise running backs

Where do elite running backs come from?

Late last week I was looking at bust rates of first-round players. That is, when you draft a guy who looks like he should be taken in the top 10, what’s the probability that you actually get what you’re paying for.

In particular, running backs. Identifying a “top-10 prospect” is difficult, so I instead focused on the top 10 guys, statistically, from the previous year. That’s not entirely fair, because some guys we can see have no chance of ranking in the top 10 again. Maybe they got hurt late in the year or are 32 years old or whatever. But it’s one way to do it. And I like stat studies where you’re looking not at a couple of guys, but at a large enough number where you can start drawing some conclusions.

Today, let’s flip it around. Rather than looking at what happens to top 10 running backs. Let’s look at where top 10 running backs come from. When a player ranks in the top 10 at running back, what did he do the previous year?

I looked at 15 years – the 1999-2013 seasons. So that’s 150 running backs. These are guys who produced good enough stats that in hindsight, just about all of them should have been selected in the first round in fantasy drafts.

Of this group, only 39 – about 1 in 4 – were top-5 backs the previous year.

Of the 150, 62 had been top-10 backs the previous year. That’s 41 percent.

About 1 in 4 (35 of 150) the previous year ranked between 11th and 20th. That’s about the same as the top-5 backs.

And the remaining 53 running backs, more than a third, the previous year did not rank in the top 20. This includes rookies, and it includes guys who simply had crappy years. Of the 53, 12 were rookies, and one was like a rookie (Willis McGahee, who didn’t play his first year).

So when stacking your board, keep in mind that about a third of the running backs in top 10 will be guys who weren’t top-20 backs in the previous season. That’s not how they are drafted though. In that Fanex Draft that I’m participating in, the first seven running backs chosen, all in the first round, all ranked in the top 10 in scoring last year. The rest of the top 10 includes two second-year backs who played well last year and are obvious choices for more playing time (LeVeon Bell and Gio Bernard) and a former elite performer who was hurt most of last year (Arian Foster).

Here’s the year-by-year back. I’ve got them in order of how they finished (and then notation of where they came from). Scoring system is 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.

WHERE 2013'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Jamaal Charles8th
2.LeSean McCoy19th
3.Matt Forte13th
4.Marshawn Lynch4th
5.Knowshon Moreno31st
6.Adrian Peterson1st
7.Eddie LacyDNP
8.DeMarco Murray24th
9.Chris Johnson12th
10.Reggie Bush14th
WHERE 2012'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Adrian Peterson9th
2.Arian Foster4th
3.Doug MartinDNP
4.Marshawn Lynch5th
5.Alfred MorrisDNP
6.Ray Rice1st
7.C.J. Spiller31st
8.Jamaal Charles70th
9.Frank Gore12th
10.Trent RichardsonDNP
WHERE 2011'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Ray Rice10th
2.LeSean McCoy7th
3.Maurice Jones-Drew11th
4.Arian Foster1st
5.Marshawn Lynch30th
6.Michael Turner8th
7.Darren Sproles39th
8.Ryan Mathews29th
9.Adrian Peterson33rd
10.Michael Bush26th
WHERE 2010'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Arian Foster56th
2.Peyton Hillis77th
3.Adrian Peterson2nd
4.Jamaal Charles10th
5.Chris Johnson1st
6.Darren McFadden50th
7.Rashard Mendenhall12th
8.LeSean McCoy35th
9.Matt Forte17th
10.Michael Turner21st
WHERE 2009'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Chris Johnson11th
2.Adrian Peterson33rd
3.Maurice Jones-Drew9th
4.Ray Rice51st
5.Frank Gore13th
6.Thomas Jones5th
7.Ricky Williams36th
8.Ryan Grant22nd
9.Joseph Addai37th
10.Steven Jackson14th
WHERE 2008'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.DeAngelo Williams28th
2.Michael Turner59th
3.Adrian Peterson33rd
4.Matt ForteDNP
5.Thomas Jones21st
6.Steve SlatonDNP
7.LaDainian Tomlinson1st
8.Clinton Portis5th
9.Maurice Jones-Drew13th
10.Brian Westbrook2nd
WHERE 2007'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.LaDainian Tomlinson1st
2.Brian Westbrook6th
3.Adrian PetersonDNP
4.Joseph Addai11th
5.Clinton Portis33rd
6.Jamal Lewis16th
7.Marion Barber14th
8.Willis McGahee24th
9.Frank Gore4th
10.Edgerrin James18th
WHERE 2006'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.LaDainian Tomlinson33rd
2.Larry Johnson2nd
3.Steven Jackson11th
4.Frank Gore33rd
5.Willie Parker15th
6.Brian Westbrook17th
7.Tiki Barber4th
8.Maurice Jones-DrewDNP
9.Rudi Johnson7th
10.Deuce McAllister42nd
WHERE 2005'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Shaun Alexander1st
2.Larry Johnson25th
3.LaDainian Tomlinson33rd
4.Tiki Barber2nd
5.Edgerrin James6th
6.Clinton Portis11th
7.LaMont Jordan36th
8.Rudi Johnson8th
9.Thomas Jones19th
10.Mike AndersonDNP
WHERE 2004'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Shaun Alexander6th
2.Tiki Barber12th
3.LaDainian Tomlinson33rd
4.Curtis Martin18th
5.Domanick Davis14th
6.Edgerrin James9th
7.Corey Dillon39th
8.Rudi Johnson19th
9.Willis McGaheeDNP
10.Brian Westbrook17th
WHERE 2003'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Priest Holmes1st
2.Ahman Green13th
3.LaDainian Tomlinson33rd
4.Jamal Lewis12th
5.Clinton Portis4th
6.Shaun Alexander5th
7.Deuce McAllister6th
8.Fred Taylor11th
9.Ricky Williams2nd
10.Edgerrin James23rd
WHERE 2002'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Priest Holmes2nd
2.Ricky Williams8th
3.LaDainian Tomlinson7th
4.Clinton Portis76th
5.Shaun Alexander4th
6.Deuce McAllister49th
7.Tiki Barber13th
8.Travis Henry26th
9.Charlie Garner17th
10.Eddie George18th
WHERE 2001'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Marshall Faulk1st
2.Priest Holmes31st
3.Ahman Green5th
4.Shaun Alexander45th
5.Curtis Martin7th
6.Corey Dillon15th
7.LaDainian TomlinsonDNP
8.Ricky Williams16th
9.Antowain Smith39th
10.Stephen Davis11th
WHERE 2000'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Marshall Faulk1st
2.Edgerrin James2nd
3.Eddie George4th
4.Mike AndersonDNP
5.Ahman Green71st
6.Fred Taylor25th
7.Robert Smith21st
8.Curtis Martin8th
9.Ricky Watters9th
10.Charlie Garner7th
WHERE 1999'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Year
1.Marshall Faulk2nd
2.Edgerrin JamesDNP
3.Stephen Davis44th
4.Eddie George8th
5.Emmitt Smith4th
6.Dorsey Levens41st
7.Charlie Garner36th
8.Curtis Martin6th
9.Ricky Watters5th
10.Duce Staley9th

—Ian Allan

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