Fantasy News
June 11, 2014
Franchise running backs
Where do elite running backs come from?
Late last week I was looking at bust rates of first-round players. That is, when you draft a guy who looks like he should be taken in the top 10, what’s the probability that you actually get what you’re paying for.
In particular, running backs. Identifying a “top-10 prospect” is difficult, so I instead focused on the top 10 guys, statistically, from the previous year. That’s not entirely fair, because some guys we can see have no chance of ranking in the top 10 again. Maybe they got hurt late in the year or are 32 years old or whatever. But it’s one way to do it. And I like stat studies where you’re looking not at a couple of guys, but at a large enough number where you can start drawing some conclusions.
Today, let’s flip it around. Rather than looking at what happens to top 10 running backs. Let’s look at where top 10 running backs come from. When a player ranks in the top 10 at running back, what did he do the previous year?
I looked at 15 years – the 1999-2013 seasons. So that’s 150 running backs. These are guys who produced good enough stats that in hindsight, just about all of them should have been selected in the first round in fantasy drafts.
Of this group, only 39 – about 1 in 4 – were top-5 backs the previous year.
Of the 150, 62 had been top-10 backs the previous year. That’s 41 percent.
About 1 in 4 (35 of 150) the previous year ranked between 11th and 20th. That’s about the same as the top-5 backs.
And the remaining 53 running backs, more than a third, the previous year did not rank in the top 20. This includes rookies, and it includes guys who simply had crappy years. Of the 53, 12 were rookies, and one was like a rookie (Willis McGahee, who didn’t play his first year).
So when stacking your board, keep in mind that about a third of the running backs in top 10 will be guys who weren’t top-20 backs in the previous season. That’s not how they are drafted though. In that Fanex Draft that I’m participating in, the first seven running backs chosen, all in the first round, all ranked in the top 10 in scoring last year. The rest of the top 10 includes two second-year backs who played well last year and are obvious choices for more playing time (LeVeon Bell and Gio Bernard) and a former elite performer who was hurt most of last year (Arian Foster).
Here’s the year-by-year back. I’ve got them in order of how they finished (and then notation of where they came from). Scoring system is 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.
WHERE 2013'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Jamaal Charles | 8th |
2. | LeSean McCoy | 19th |
3. | Matt Forte | 13th |
4. | Marshawn Lynch | 4th |
5. | Knowshon Moreno | 31st |
6. | Adrian Peterson | 1st |
7. | Eddie Lacy | DNP |
8. | DeMarco Murray | 24th |
9. | Chris Johnson | 12th |
10. | Reggie Bush | 14th |
WHERE 2012'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Adrian Peterson | 9th |
2. | Arian Foster | 4th |
3. | Doug Martin | DNP |
4. | Marshawn Lynch | 5th |
5. | Alfred Morris | DNP |
6. | Ray Rice | 1st |
7. | C.J. Spiller | 31st |
8. | Jamaal Charles | 70th |
9. | Frank Gore | 12th |
10. | Trent Richardson | DNP |
WHERE 2011'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Ray Rice | 10th |
2. | LeSean McCoy | 7th |
3. | Maurice Jones-Drew | 11th |
4. | Arian Foster | 1st |
5. | Marshawn Lynch | 30th |
6. | Michael Turner | 8th |
7. | Darren Sproles | 39th |
8. | Ryan Mathews | 29th |
9. | Adrian Peterson | 33rd |
10. | Michael Bush | 26th |
WHERE 2010'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Arian Foster | 56th |
2. | Peyton Hillis | 77th |
3. | Adrian Peterson | 2nd |
4. | Jamaal Charles | 10th |
5. | Chris Johnson | 1st |
6. | Darren McFadden | 50th |
7. | Rashard Mendenhall | 12th |
8. | LeSean McCoy | 35th |
9. | Matt Forte | 17th |
10. | Michael Turner | 21st |
WHERE 2009'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Chris Johnson | 11th |
2. | Adrian Peterson | 33rd |
3. | Maurice Jones-Drew | 9th |
4. | Ray Rice | 51st |
5. | Frank Gore | 13th |
6. | Thomas Jones | 5th |
7. | Ricky Williams | 36th |
8. | Ryan Grant | 22nd |
9. | Joseph Addai | 37th |
10. | Steven Jackson | 14th |
WHERE 2008'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | DeAngelo Williams | 28th |
2. | Michael Turner | 59th |
3. | Adrian Peterson | 33rd |
4. | Matt Forte | DNP |
5. | Thomas Jones | 21st |
6. | Steve Slaton | DNP |
7. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1st |
8. | Clinton Portis | 5th |
9. | Maurice Jones-Drew | 13th |
10. | Brian Westbrook | 2nd |
WHERE 2007'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1st |
2. | Brian Westbrook | 6th |
3. | Adrian Peterson | DNP |
4. | Joseph Addai | 11th |
5. | Clinton Portis | 33rd |
6. | Jamal Lewis | 16th |
7. | Marion Barber | 14th |
8. | Willis McGahee | 24th |
9. | Frank Gore | 4th |
10. | Edgerrin James | 18th |
WHERE 2006'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 33rd |
2. | Larry Johnson | 2nd |
3. | Steven Jackson | 11th |
4. | Frank Gore | 33rd |
5. | Willie Parker | 15th |
6. | Brian Westbrook | 17th |
7. | Tiki Barber | 4th |
8. | Maurice Jones-Drew | DNP |
9. | Rudi Johnson | 7th |
10. | Deuce McAllister | 42nd |
WHERE 2005'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Shaun Alexander | 1st |
2. | Larry Johnson | 25th |
3. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 33rd |
4. | Tiki Barber | 2nd |
5. | Edgerrin James | 6th |
6. | Clinton Portis | 11th |
7. | LaMont Jordan | 36th |
8. | Rudi Johnson | 8th |
9. | Thomas Jones | 19th |
10. | Mike Anderson | DNP |
WHERE 2004'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Shaun Alexander | 6th |
2. | Tiki Barber | 12th |
3. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 33rd |
4. | Curtis Martin | 18th |
5. | Domanick Davis | 14th |
6. | Edgerrin James | 9th |
7. | Corey Dillon | 39th |
8. | Rudi Johnson | 19th |
9. | Willis McGahee | DNP |
10. | Brian Westbrook | 17th |
WHERE 2003'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Priest Holmes | 1st |
2. | Ahman Green | 13th |
3. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 33rd |
4. | Jamal Lewis | 12th |
5. | Clinton Portis | 4th |
6. | Shaun Alexander | 5th |
7. | Deuce McAllister | 6th |
8. | Fred Taylor | 11th |
9. | Ricky Williams | 2nd |
10. | Edgerrin James | 23rd |
WHERE 2002'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Priest Holmes | 2nd |
2. | Ricky Williams | 8th |
3. | LaDainian Tomlinson | 7th |
4. | Clinton Portis | 76th |
5. | Shaun Alexander | 4th |
6. | Deuce McAllister | 49th |
7. | Tiki Barber | 13th |
8. | Travis Henry | 26th |
9. | Charlie Garner | 17th |
10. | Eddie George | 18th |
WHERE 2001'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Marshall Faulk | 1st |
2. | Priest Holmes | 31st |
3. | Ahman Green | 5th |
4. | Shaun Alexander | 45th |
5. | Curtis Martin | 7th |
6. | Corey Dillon | 15th |
7. | LaDainian Tomlinson | DNP |
8. | Ricky Williams | 16th |
9. | Antowain Smith | 39th |
10. | Stephen Davis | 11th |
WHERE 2000'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Marshall Faulk | 1st |
2. | Edgerrin James | 2nd |
3. | Eddie George | 4th |
4. | Mike Anderson | DNP |
5. | Ahman Green | 71st |
6. | Fred Taylor | 25th |
7. | Robert Smith | 21st |
8. | Curtis Martin | 8th |
9. | Ricky Watters | 9th |
10. | Charlie Garner | 7th |
WHERE 1999'S TOP BACKS CAME FROM |
Rk | Player | Prev Year |
1. | Marshall Faulk | 2nd |
2. | Edgerrin James | DNP |
3. | Stephen Davis | 44th |
4. | Eddie George | 8th |
5. | Emmitt Smith | 4th |
6. | Dorsey Levens | 41st |
7. | Charlie Garner | 36th |
8. | Curtis Martin | 6th |
9. | Ricky Watters | 5th |
10. | Duce Staley | 9th |
—Ian Allan