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Fanex Analysis Draft

Finding a pair of middle-round values

A 10th-round pick is worth something. Keep that in mind. In a draft, if you trade down 5-10 spots in the second or third round and can pick up an extra choice in the 10th, that’s probably a pretty good player.

I like both of the guys I got with the 116th and 121st choices in the ongoing (will it ever end?) Fanex Analysis Draft.

At choice 10.10, I went with Lamar Miller. If we could start this draft over, I would have taken him four rounds ago. The Dolphins signed Knowshon Moreno, but he’s shown up out of shape and unimpressive. Miller has gotten all of the reps with the first-unit offense at the OTAs, and he supposedly looks really good. He’s playing like he has something to prove. Moreno is a better receiver and in pass protection, but my leaning is that Miller will be the best back on that team. Not a leaning, actually, I just think he will be their starter and maybe damn good. The Dolphins are going to a fast-tempo approach, with their new offensive coordinator (Bill Lazor) trying to implement some of the principles he observed last year in Philadelphia. The top 2 rushing teams in the league last year were both teams running that kind of system – Philadelphia and Buffalo. Miller is a 10th-round pick who could wind up producing like a 2nd-round pick.

After choosing only one running back in the first five rounds, by the way, I’m comfortable with how that position is shaping up. I’ve got LeSean McCoy, who’s a franchise guy, and I’ve got three others I am confident will chip in with productive games. Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley and Miller. This is a best-ball league; you don’t “start” a running back, but get the top two scores each week. It’s a PPR format, which is why I picked Thomas (77 catches last year) before Ridley (10 catches). Thomas received 128 fantasy points for his receiving production last year; Ridley got 16.

Moving on to pick 11.03, I offer Brandin Cooks. He’s the quick, elusive receiver the Saints traded up to select 20th in the draft. Fast as hell. They traded Darren Sproles, and I think they’re counting on Cooks to fill a lot of that role. They can throw him short balls and let him turn those into 15- and 20-yard gains. He can make people miss; none of their running backs can do that. (Pierre Thomas has good hands, but he’s not quick, fast or elusive, and Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson look like lesser pass catchers – definitely Ingram and maybe Robinson). The Saints have Ken Stills, but he’s an outside-the-hashmarks speed guy down the sidelines. Colston is a big, slow plodder. If everything falls into place nicely and they get him coached up, Cooks might catch 80 balls and be a top-15 receiver in this format. But I thought the same thing about Tavon Austin last year and missed on that one.

Receivers on this squad look very good. You must play three every week, and you can play four with the Flex rule. I selected wide receivers with my next four choices after the first round – Cobb, Edelman, White, Fitzgerald. But all of those guys have byes and they’ll all have some poor games. It’s also not realistic to expect four players to each play 16 games. White and Cobb both were hurt for half of last year, and Fitzgerald had a hamstring issue for a couple of games.

FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT
PickPosPlayerOwner
1.01RBMatt FortePanizo
1.02RBJamaal CharlesHolm
1.03RBLeSean McCoyAllan
1.04RBAdrian PetersonAdams
1.05WRCalvin JohnsonCannon
1.06RBMarshawn LynchRito
1.07RBEddie LacyHarmon
1.08TEJimmy GrahamCahill
1.09WRA.J. GreenKellogg
1.10WRBrandon MarshallNease
1.11WRDemaryius ThomasDolfi
1.12WRDez BryantSchauf
2.01RBDeMarco MurraySchauf
2.02RBLeVeon BellDolfi
2.03WRAlshon JefferyNease
2.04RBArian FosterKellogg
2.05RBGiovani BernardCahill
2.06WRJulio JonesHarmon
2.07WRAntonio BrownRito
2.08RBDoug MartinCannon
2.09QBPeyton ManningAdams
2.10WRRandall CobbAllan
2.11WRJordy NelsonHolm
2.12QBDrew BreesPanizo
3.01RBMontee BallPanizo
3.02RBZac StacyHolm
3.03WRJulian EdelmanAllan
3.04RBReggie BushAdams
3.05TEJulius ThomasCannon
3.06WRWes WelkerRito
3.07RBAlfred MorrisHarmon
3.08RBC.J. SpillerCahill
3.09WRKeenan AllenKellogg
3.10RBBishop SankeyNease
3.11WRAndre JohnsonDolfi
3.12RBAndre EllingtonSchauf
4.01RBShane VereenSchauf
4.02WRPierre GarconDolfi
4.03RBRyan MathewsNease
4.04RBBen TateKellogg
4.05QBAaron RodgersCahill
4.06WRPercy HarvinHarmon
4.07TERob GronkowskiRito
4.08QBMatthew StaffordCannon
4.09WRDeSean JacksonAdams
4.10WRRoddy WhiteAllan
4.11WRVictor CruzHolm
4.12WRVincent JacksonPanizo
5.01WRCordarrelle PattersonPanizo
5.02WRMichael CrabtreeHolm
5.03WRLarry FitzgeraldAllan
5.04WRT.Y. HiltonAdams
5.05RBToby GerhartCannon
5.06WRMike WallaceRito
5.07WRHakeem NicksHarmon
5.08TEJordan CameronCahill
5.09TEVernon DavisKellogg
5.10RBChris JohnsonNease
5.11QBAndrew LuckDolfi
5.12WRMichael FloydSchauf
6.01WRTerrance WilliamsSchauf
6.02RBRashad JenningsDolfi
6.03RBKnowshon MorenoNease
6.04RBJoique BellKellogg
6.05RBTrent RichardsonCahill
6.06RBFrank GoreHarmon
6.07RBRay RiceRito
6.08WRJeremy MaclinCannon
6.09WRSammy WatkinsAdams
6.10RBPierre ThomasAllan
6.11QBNick FolesHolm
6.12WRTorrey SmithPanizo
7.01RBFred JacksonPanizo
7.02RBSteven JacksonHolm
7.03QBTom BradyAllan
7.04TEJordan ReedAdams
7.05RBDanny WoodheadCannon
7.06WRKendall WrightRito
7.07RBDarren SprolesHarmon
7.08QBCam NewtonCahill
7.09QBMatt RyanKellogg
7.10QBRobert Griffin IIINease
7.11TEJason WittenDolfi
7.12WRGolden TateSchauf
8.01TEGreg OlsenSchauf
8.02RBMaurice Jones-DrewDolfi
8.03WREric DeckerNease
8.04WRMike EvansKellogg
8.05WRJustin BlackmonCahill
8.06QBColin KaepernickHarmon
8.07QBTony RomoRito
8.08WRMarques ColstonCannon
8.09WRRueben RandleAdams
8.10RBStevan RidleyAllan
8.11QBRussell WilsonHolm
8.12WRReggie WaynePanizo
9.01STSeattle Panizo
9.02TEDennis PittaHolm
9.03TEKyle RudolphAllan
9.04RBTerrance WestAdams
9.05QBJay CutlerCannon
9.06RBDarren McFaddenRito
9.07WRRiley CooperDolfi
9.08WREmmanuel SandersCahill
9.09WRJustin HunterKellogg
9.10TECharles ClayNease
9.11QBPhilip RiversHarmon
9.12QBAndy DaltonSchauf
10.01QBCarson PalmerSchauf
10.02WRDeAndre HopkinsHarmon
10.03QBBen RoethlisbergerNease
10.04QBRyan TannehillKellogg
10.05WRTavon AustinCahill
10.06TEZach ErtzDolfi
10.07QBEli ManningRito
10.08WRDwayne BoweCannon
10.09RBTre MasonAdams
10.10RBLamar MillerAllan
10.11WRCecil Shorts IIIHolm
10.12TEMartellus BennettPanizo
11.01WRAnquan BoldinPanizo
11.02WRMarvin JonesHolm
11.03WRBrandin CooksAllan
11.04RBBernard PierceAdams
11.05WRDanny AmendolaCannon

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index