A 10th-round pick is worth something. Keep that in mind. In a draft, if you trade down 5-10 spots in the second or third round and can pick up an extra choice in the 10th, that’s probably a pretty good player.
I like both of the guys I got with the 116th and 121st choices in the ongoing (will it ever end?) Fanex Analysis Draft.
At choice 10.10, I went with Lamar Miller. If we could start this draft over, I would have taken him four rounds ago. The Dolphins signed Knowshon Moreno, but he’s shown up out of shape and unimpressive. Miller has gotten all of the reps with the first-unit offense at the OTAs, and he supposedly looks really good. He’s playing like he has something to prove. Moreno is a better receiver and in pass protection, but my leaning is that Miller will be the best back on that team. Not a leaning, actually, I just think he will be their starter and maybe damn good. The Dolphins are going to a fast-tempo approach, with their new offensive coordinator (Bill Lazor) trying to implement some of the principles he observed last year in Philadelphia. The top 2 rushing teams in the league last year were both teams running that kind of system – Philadelphia and Buffalo. Miller is a 10th-round pick who could wind up producing like a 2nd-round pick.
After choosing only one running back in the first five rounds, by the way, I’m comfortable with how that position is shaping up. I’ve got LeSean McCoy, who’s a franchise guy, and I’ve got three others I am confident will chip in with productive games. Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley and Miller. This is a best-ball league; you don’t “start” a running back, but get the top two scores each week. It’s a PPR format, which is why I picked Thomas (77 catches last year) before Ridley (10 catches). Thomas received 128 fantasy points for his receiving production last year; Ridley got 16.
Moving on to pick 11.03, I offer Brandin Cooks. He’s the quick, elusive receiver the Saints traded up to select 20th in the draft. Fast as hell. They traded Darren Sproles, and I think they’re counting on Cooks to fill a lot of that role. They can throw him short balls and let him turn those into 15- and 20-yard gains. He can make people miss; none of their running backs can do that. (Pierre Thomas has good hands, but he’s not quick, fast or elusive, and Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson look like lesser pass catchers – definitely Ingram and maybe Robinson). The Saints have Ken Stills, but he’s an outside-the-hashmarks speed guy down the sidelines. Colston is a big, slow plodder. If everything falls into place nicely and they get him coached up, Cooks might catch 80 balls and be a top-15 receiver in this format. But I thought the same thing about Tavon Austin last year and missed on that one.
Receivers on this squad look very good. You must play three every week, and you can play four with the Flex rule. I selected wide receivers with my next four choices after the first round – Cobb, Edelman, White, Fitzgerald. But all of those guys have byes and they’ll all have some poor games. It’s also not realistic to expect four players to each play 16 games. White and Cobb both were hurt for half of last year, and Fitzgerald had a hamstring issue for a couple of games.
FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | |||
---|---|---|---|
Pick | Pos | Player | Owner |
1.01 | RB | Matt Forte | Panizo |
1.02 | RB | Jamaal Charles | Holm |
1.03 | RB | LeSean McCoy | Allan |
1.04 | RB | Adrian Peterson | Adams |
1.05 | WR | Calvin Johnson | Cannon |
1.06 | RB | Marshawn Lynch | Rito |
1.07 | RB | Eddie Lacy | Harmon |
1.08 | TE | Jimmy Graham | Cahill |
1.09 | WR | A.J. Green | Kellogg |
1.10 | WR | Brandon Marshall | Nease |
1.11 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | Dolfi |
1.12 | WR | Dez Bryant | Schauf |
2.01 | RB | DeMarco Murray | Schauf |
2.02 | RB | LeVeon Bell | Dolfi |
2.03 | WR | Alshon Jeffery | Nease |
2.04 | RB | Arian Foster | Kellogg |
2.05 | RB | Giovani Bernard | Cahill |
2.06 | WR | Julio Jones | Harmon |
2.07 | WR | Antonio Brown | Rito |
2.08 | RB | Doug Martin | Cannon |
2.09 | QB | Peyton Manning | Adams |
2.10 | WR | Randall Cobb | Allan |
2.11 | WR | Jordy Nelson | Holm |
2.12 | QB | Drew Brees | Panizo |
3.01 | RB | Montee Ball | Panizo |
3.02 | RB | Zac Stacy | Holm |
3.03 | WR | Julian Edelman | Allan |
3.04 | RB | Reggie Bush | Adams |
3.05 | TE | Julius Thomas | Cannon |
3.06 | WR | Wes Welker | Rito |
3.07 | RB | Alfred Morris | Harmon |
3.08 | RB | C.J. Spiller | Cahill |
3.09 | WR | Keenan Allen | Kellogg |
3.10 | RB | Bishop Sankey | Nease |
3.11 | WR | Andre Johnson | Dolfi |
3.12 | RB | Andre Ellington | Schauf |
4.01 | RB | Shane Vereen | Schauf |
4.02 | WR | Pierre Garcon | Dolfi |
4.03 | RB | Ryan Mathews | Nease |
4.04 | RB | Ben Tate | Kellogg |
4.05 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | Cahill |
4.06 | WR | Percy Harvin | Harmon |
4.07 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | Rito |
4.08 | QB | Matthew Stafford | Cannon |
4.09 | WR | DeSean Jackson | Adams |
4.10 | WR | Roddy White | Allan |
4.11 | WR | Victor Cruz | Holm |
4.12 | WR | Vincent Jackson | Panizo |
5.01 | WR | Cordarrelle Patterson | Panizo |
5.02 | WR | Michael Crabtree | Holm |
5.03 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | Allan |
5.04 | WR | T.Y. Hilton | Adams |
5.05 | RB | Toby Gerhart | Cannon |
5.06 | WR | Mike Wallace | Rito |
5.07 | WR | Hakeem Nicks | Harmon |
5.08 | TE | Jordan Cameron | Cahill |
5.09 | TE | Vernon Davis | Kellogg |
5.10 | RB | Chris Johnson | Nease |
5.11 | QB | Andrew Luck | Dolfi |
5.12 | WR | Michael Floyd | Schauf |
6.01 | WR | Terrance Williams | Schauf |
6.02 | RB | Rashad Jennings | Dolfi |
6.03 | RB | Knowshon Moreno | Nease |
6.04 | RB | Joique Bell | Kellogg |
6.05 | RB | Trent Richardson | Cahill |
6.06 | RB | Frank Gore | Harmon |
6.07 | RB | Ray Rice | Rito |
6.08 | WR | Jeremy Maclin | Cannon |
6.09 | WR | Sammy Watkins | Adams |
6.10 | RB | Pierre Thomas | Allan |
6.11 | QB | Nick Foles | Holm |
6.12 | WR | Torrey Smith | Panizo |
7.01 | RB | Fred Jackson | Panizo |
7.02 | RB | Steven Jackson | Holm |
7.03 | QB | Tom Brady | Allan |
7.04 | TE | Jordan Reed | Adams |
7.05 | RB | Danny Woodhead | Cannon |
7.06 | WR | Kendall Wright | Rito |
7.07 | RB | Darren Sproles | Harmon |
7.08 | QB | Cam Newton | Cahill |
7.09 | QB | Matt Ryan | Kellogg |
7.10 | QB | Robert Griffin III | Nease |
7.11 | TE | Jason Witten | Dolfi |
7.12 | WR | Golden Tate | Schauf |
8.01 | TE | Greg Olsen | Schauf |
8.02 | RB | Maurice Jones-Drew | Dolfi |
8.03 | WR | Eric Decker | Nease |
8.04 | WR | Mike Evans | Kellogg |
8.05 | WR | Justin Blackmon | Cahill |
8.06 | QB | Colin Kaepernick | Harmon |
8.07 | QB | Tony Romo | Rito |
8.08 | WR | Marques Colston | Cannon |
8.09 | WR | Rueben Randle | Adams |
8.10 | RB | Stevan Ridley | Allan |
8.11 | QB | Russell Wilson | Holm |
8.12 | WR | Reggie Wayne | Panizo |
9.01 | ST | Seattle | Panizo |
9.02 | TE | Dennis Pitta | Holm |
9.03 | TE | Kyle Rudolph | Allan |
9.04 | RB | Terrance West | Adams |
9.05 | QB | Jay Cutler | Cannon |
9.06 | RB | Darren McFadden | Rito |
9.07 | WR | Riley Cooper | Dolfi |
9.08 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders | Cahill |
9.09 | WR | Justin Hunter | Kellogg |
9.10 | TE | Charles Clay | Nease |
9.11 | QB | Philip Rivers | Harmon |
9.12 | QB | Andy Dalton | Schauf |
10.01 | QB | Carson Palmer | Schauf |
10.02 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | Harmon |
10.03 | QB | Ben Roethlisberger | Nease |
10.04 | QB | Ryan Tannehill | Kellogg |
10.05 | WR | Tavon Austin | Cahill |
10.06 | TE | Zach Ertz | Dolfi |
10.07 | QB | Eli Manning | Rito |
10.08 | WR | Dwayne Bowe | Cannon |
10.09 | RB | Tre Mason | Adams |
10.10 | RB | Lamar Miller | Allan |
10.11 | WR | Cecil Shorts III | Holm |
10.12 | TE | Martellus Bennett | Panizo |
11.01 | WR | Anquan Boldin | Panizo |
11.02 | WR | Marvin Jones | Holm |
11.03 | WR | Brandin Cooks | Allan |
11.04 | RB | Bernard Pierce | Adams |
11.05 | WR | Danny Amendola | Cannon |
—Ian Allan