Fantasy Index

Factoid

Rookie tight ends

Trends indicate Amaro, Seferian-Jenkins could be a year away

Three tight ends were selected in the second round, and I have some interest in those guys – especially Jace Amaro and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Troy Niklas not as much (he’s more of a blocker) but all three of those guys should play plenty right away.

History suggests, however, that when a tight end is selected in the first round, he’s usually not going to make a big impact in his first year.

In the past 20 years, 36 of them have been selected in the second round. Only five of those guys either caught 5-plus touchdowns or went over 500 receiving yards. Only three did both – Cam Cleeland, John Carlson and Rob Gronkowski.

Over a third of those tight ends (13 of 36) didn’t even catch 10 passes in their first year.

TIGHT ENDS SELECTED IN SECOND ROUND (rookie numbers)
YearPlayerNoYardsAvgTD
1994Lonnie Johnson, Buff.34214.00
1995Ken Dilger, Ind.4263515.14
1995Christian Fauria, Sea.1718110.61
1995Kendall Watkins, Dall.188.00
1996Jason Dunn, Phil.1533222.12
1996Ernie Conwell, Stl.1516410.90
1996Marco Battaglia, Cin.8799.90
1997Freddie Jones, S.D.4150512.32
1997John Allred, Chi.8708.80
1998Cameron Cleeland, N.O.5468412.76
1998Stephen Alexander, Wash.3738310.44
1998Rod Rutledge, N.E.00--0
1999Reggie Kelly, Atl.814618.30
1999Jim Kleinsasser, Minn.6132.20
2001Alge Crumpler, Atl.2533013.23
2002Doug Jolley, Oak.3240912.82
2003L.J. Smith , Phil.2732111.91
2003Teyo Johnson , Oak.141289.11
2003Bennie Joppru , Hou.00--0
2004Ben Troupe, Tenn.3332910.01
2004Kris Wilson, K.C.00--0
2006Tony Scheffler, Den.1828615.94
2006Joe Klopfenstein, Stl.2022611.31
2006Anthony Fasano, Dall.141269.00
2007Zach Miller, Oak.4444410.13
2008John Carlson, Sea.5562711.45
2008Martellus Bennett, Dall.2028314.24
2008Fred Davis, Wash.3279.00
2009Richard Quinn, Den.00--0
2010Rob Gronkowski, N.E.4254613.010
2011Kyle Rudolph, Minn.262499.63
2011Lance Kendricks, Stl.2835212.60
2012Coby Fleener, Ind.2628110.82
2013Zach Ertz, Phil.3646913.04
2013Gavin Escobar, Dall.913414.92
2013Vance McDonald, S.F.811914.90

The success rates get a lot better in the second year. Of that group of 33 tight ends, 14 went over 500 yards or scored 5-plus touchdowns. Four of those tight ends did both.

Keeping that in mind, the smarter play for this year isn’t to try to hit a home run with Seferian-Jenkins or Amaro, but instead to try for one of last year’s 2nd-round tight ends. There are three: Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar and Vance McDonald.

I believe Escobar and McDonald will play extensively this year, but as second tight ends. The breakout-type guy is Ertz, and I’ve got him ranked higher than any other first- or second-year tight end on my board. They started expanding his role in the second half of last year.

TIGHT ENDS SELECTED IN SECOND ROUND (2nd-year numbers)
YearPlayerNoYardsAvgTD
1994Lonnie Johnson, Buff.4950410.31
1995Ken Dilger, Ind.4250312.04
1995Christian Fauria, Sea.1821411.91
1995Kendall Watkins, Dall.00--0
1996Ernie Conwell, Stl.3840410.64
1996Jason Dunn, Phil.79313.32
1996Marco Battaglia, Cin.1214912.41
1997Freddie Jones, S.D.5760210.63
1997John Allred, Chi.00--0
1998Stephen Alexander, Wash.2932411.23
1998Cameron Cleeland, N.O.2632512.51
1998Rod Rutledge, N.E.7669.40
1999Reggie Kelly, Atl.3134011.02
1999Jim Kleinsasser, Minn.10989.80
2001Alge Crumpler, Atl.3645512.65
2002Doug Jolley, Oak.312508.11
2003L.J. Smith , Phil.3437711.15
2003Teyo Johnson , Oak.913114.62
2003Bennie Joppru , Hou.00--0
2004Ben Troupe, Tenn.555309.64
2004Kris Wilson, K.C.33311.00
2006Tony Scheffler, Den.4954911.25
2006Anthony Fasano, Dall.1414310.21
2006Joe Klopfenstein, Stl.23718.51
2007Zach Miller, Oak.5677813.91
2008John Carlson, Sea.5157411.37
2008Fred Davis, Wash.4850910.66
2008Martellus Bennett, Dall.1515910.60
2009Richard Quinn, Den.199.00
2010Rob Gronkowski, N.E.90132714.717
2011Lance Kendricks, Stl.4251912.44
2011Kyle Rudolph, Minn.534939.39
2012Coby Fleener, Ind.5260811.74

—Ian Allan

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