Three tight ends were selected in the second round, and I have some interest in those guys – especially Jace Amaro and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Troy Niklas not as much (he’s more of a blocker) but all three of those guys should play plenty right away.
History suggests, however, that when a tight end is selected in the first round, he’s usually not going to make a big impact in his first year.
In the past 20 years, 36 of them have been selected in the second round. Only five of those guys either caught 5-plus touchdowns or went over 500 receiving yards. Only three did both – Cam Cleeland, John Carlson and Rob Gronkowski.
Over a third of those tight ends (13 of 36) didn’t even catch 10 passes in their first year.
TIGHT ENDS SELECTED IN SECOND ROUND (rookie numbers) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
1994 | Lonnie Johnson, Buff. | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
1995 | Ken Dilger, Ind. | 42 | 635 | 15.1 | 4 |
1995 | Christian Fauria, Sea. | 17 | 181 | 10.6 | 1 |
1995 | Kendall Watkins, Dall. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
1996 | Jason Dunn, Phil. | 15 | 332 | 22.1 | 2 |
1996 | Ernie Conwell, Stl. | 15 | 164 | 10.9 | 0 |
1996 | Marco Battaglia, Cin. | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 0 |
1997 | Freddie Jones, S.D. | 41 | 505 | 12.3 | 2 |
1997 | John Allred, Chi. | 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 0 |
1998 | Cameron Cleeland, N.O. | 54 | 684 | 12.7 | 6 |
1998 | Stephen Alexander, Wash. | 37 | 383 | 10.4 | 4 |
1998 | Rod Rutledge, N.E. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
1999 | Reggie Kelly, Atl. | 8 | 146 | 18.3 | 0 |
1999 | Jim Kleinsasser, Minn. | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
2001 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 25 | 330 | 13.2 | 3 |
2002 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 32 | 409 | 12.8 | 2 |
2003 | L.J. Smith , Phil. | 27 | 321 | 11.9 | 1 |
2003 | Teyo Johnson , Oak. | 14 | 128 | 9.1 | 1 |
2003 | Bennie Joppru , Hou. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
2004 | Ben Troupe, Tenn. | 33 | 329 | 10.0 | 1 |
2004 | Kris Wilson, K.C. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
2006 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 18 | 286 | 15.9 | 4 |
2006 | Joe Klopfenstein, Stl. | 20 | 226 | 11.3 | 1 |
2006 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 14 | 126 | 9.0 | 0 |
2007 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 44 | 444 | 10.1 | 3 |
2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 55 | 627 | 11.4 | 5 |
2008 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 20 | 283 | 14.2 | 4 |
2008 | Fred Davis, Wash. | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
2009 | Richard Quinn, Den. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42 | 546 | 13.0 | 10 |
2011 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 26 | 249 | 9.6 | 3 |
2011 | Lance Kendricks, Stl. | 28 | 352 | 12.6 | 0 |
2012 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 26 | 281 | 10.8 | 2 |
2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 36 | 469 | 13.0 | 4 |
2013 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 9 | 134 | 14.9 | 2 |
2013 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 0 |
The success rates get a lot better in the second year. Of that group of 33 tight ends, 14 went over 500 yards or scored 5-plus touchdowns. Four of those tight ends did both.
Keeping that in mind, the smarter play for this year isn’t to try to hit a home run with Seferian-Jenkins or Amaro, but instead to try for one of last year’s 2nd-round tight ends. There are three: Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar and Vance McDonald.
I believe Escobar and McDonald will play extensively this year, but as second tight ends. The breakout-type guy is Ertz, and I’ve got him ranked higher than any other first- or second-year tight end on my board. They started expanding his role in the second half of last year.
TIGHT ENDS SELECTED IN SECOND ROUND (2nd-year numbers) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
1994 | Lonnie Johnson, Buff. | 49 | 504 | 10.3 | 1 |
1995 | Ken Dilger, Ind. | 42 | 503 | 12.0 | 4 |
1995 | Christian Fauria, Sea. | 18 | 214 | 11.9 | 1 |
1995 | Kendall Watkins, Dall. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
1996 | Ernie Conwell, Stl. | 38 | 404 | 10.6 | 4 |
1996 | Jason Dunn, Phil. | 7 | 93 | 13.3 | 2 |
1996 | Marco Battaglia, Cin. | 12 | 149 | 12.4 | 1 |
1997 | Freddie Jones, S.D. | 57 | 602 | 10.6 | 3 |
1997 | John Allred, Chi. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
1998 | Stephen Alexander, Wash. | 29 | 324 | 11.2 | 3 |
1998 | Cameron Cleeland, N.O. | 26 | 325 | 12.5 | 1 |
1998 | Rod Rutledge, N.E. | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 0 |
1999 | Reggie Kelly, Atl. | 31 | 340 | 11.0 | 2 |
1999 | Jim Kleinsasser, Minn. | 10 | 98 | 9.8 | 0 |
2001 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 36 | 455 | 12.6 | 5 |
2002 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 31 | 250 | 8.1 | 1 |
2003 | L.J. Smith , Phil. | 34 | 377 | 11.1 | 5 |
2003 | Teyo Johnson , Oak. | 9 | 131 | 14.6 | 2 |
2003 | Bennie Joppru , Hou. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
2004 | Ben Troupe, Tenn. | 55 | 530 | 9.6 | 4 |
2004 | Kris Wilson, K.C. | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
2006 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 49 | 549 | 11.2 | 5 |
2006 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 14 | 143 | 10.2 | 1 |
2006 | Joe Klopfenstein, Stl. | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 1 |
2007 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 56 | 778 | 13.9 | 1 |
2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 51 | 574 | 11.3 | 7 |
2008 | Fred Davis, Wash. | 48 | 509 | 10.6 | 6 |
2008 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 15 | 159 | 10.6 | 0 |
2009 | Richard Quinn, Den. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 90 | 1327 | 14.7 | 17 |
2011 | Lance Kendricks, Stl. | 42 | 519 | 12.4 | 4 |
2011 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 53 | 493 | 9.3 | 9 |
2012 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 52 | 608 | 11.7 | 4 |
—Ian Allan