Eddie Lacy ran away with the Rookie of the Year Award, powering Green Bay to a playoff berth while Aaron Rodgers was hurt. That does not, however, mean that he needs to simply show up to be assured of being a top-5 fantasy back.
The success rate of running backs coming off big rookie seasons is surprisingly low. You might even call it a sophomore slump.
Of the last 30 running backs to go over 1,000 yards as a rookie, two thirds of those backs (20 of them) ran for fewer yards the next year.
My gut tells me Lacy will be very good. I think he’s the 5th or 6th running back on my board in the various scoring systems. But I had the same kind of warm, fuzzy feeling about a lot of the other running backs on this list, including Doug Martin last year.
A full 10 percent of these running backs, oddly, didn’t even make it to opening day before being lost for the season – Robert Edwards, Jamal Lewis and Dominic Rhodes.
| ROOKIES GOING FOR 1,000 YARDS -- THE NEXT YEAR | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player, Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | |
| 1994 | Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 289 | 1,078 | 3.7 | 14 | (decline 204) |
| 1994 | Errict Rhett, T.B. | 332 | 1,207 | 3.6 | 11 | (improve 196) |
| 1995 | Rashaan Salaam, Chi. | 143 | 496 | 3.5 | 4 | (decline 578) |
| 1995 | Curtis Martin, N.E. | 316 | 1,152 | 3.6 | 17 | (decline 335) |
| 1995 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 345 | 1,538 | 4.5 | 15 | (improve 421) |
| 1996 | Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Mia. | 283 | 892 | 3.2 | 16 | (decline 224) |
| 1996 | Eddie George, Tenn. | 357 | 1,399 | 3.9 | 7 | (improve 31) |
| 1997 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 262 | 1,130 | 4.3 | 5 | (improve 1) |
| 1998 | Robert Edwards, N.E. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | (decline 1115) |
| 1998 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 159 | 732 | 4.6 | 6 | (decline 491) |
| 1999 | Olandis Gary, Den. | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 | (decline 1079) |
| 1999 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 387 | 1,709 | 4.4 | 17 | (improve 156) |
| 2000 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | (decline 1364) |
| 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 175 | 678 | 3.9 | 4 | (decline 809) |
| 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | (decline 1104) |
| 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 214 | 721 | 3.4 | 6 | (decline 462) |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 372 | 1,683 | 4.5 | 15 | (improve 447) |
| 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 290 | 1,591 | 5.5 | 14 | (improve 83) |
| 2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 302 | 1,188 | 3.9 | 14 | (improve 157) |
| 2004 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 186 | 664 | 3.6 | 5 | (decline 469) |
| 2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 225 | 798 | 3.5 | 1 | (decline 380) |
| 2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 261 | 1,072 | 4.1 | 15 | (decline 9) |
| 2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 250 | 1,036 | 4.1 | 10 | (decline 79) |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 363 | 1,760 | 4.8 | 10 | (improve 419) |
| 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 131 | 437 | 3.3 | 7 | (decline 845) |
| 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 258 | 929 | 3.6 | 4 | (decline 309) |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 358 | 2,006 | 5.6 | 16 | (improve 778) |
| 2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 184 | 781 | 4.2 | 5 | (decline 226) |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 127 | 456 | 3.6 | 1 | (decline 998) |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 276 | 1,275 | 4.6 | 7 | (decline 338) |
| 2013 | EDDIE LACY, G.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan