Yesterday we pointed out the top rookie runners are likeliest to be drafted in the first couple of rounds rather than later, and that makes sense. Those earlier draft picks are more highly rated by the teams they end up on, and will get an earlier shot to get into the lineup and produce. Those later-round picks typically have to wait their turn.
But just because immediate impact is hard to come by from late-round running backs, those players can have plenty of value in dynasty formats. Rookie starters like Alfred Morris and Zac Stacy from those later rounds are rare, but by Year 2 or 3, some of those players can hit big.
The table below shows the best of the late-round running backs from 2000-2013 in their second seasons. In those 14 seasons, there were 13 running backs selected in the fourth round or later (in some cases, undrafted) who put up at least 800 total yards in Year 2. Only three of those players put up even 750 total yards as rookies; almost half (6) didn't even reach 450. So those seasons could be said to come from out of nowhere.
The 2014 players who fit that profile -- late-round running backs who did nothing as rookies -- include 2013 fifth-rounders Denard Robinson and Stepfan Taylor, and sixth-rounders Latavius Murray and Mike James. Maybe even fourth-rounder Marcus Lattimore. The odds are still against such players amounting to much in the pros, but history suggests one of them will emerge as a significant fantasy back. Maybe even this season.
The top Year 2 performers from late-round or undrafted running backs from 2000-2013 are presented below, sorted by Year 2 total yards. Their total yards in their rookie seasons are also shown.
| LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 2, 2000-2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Yds (Yr 1) | Yds (Yr 2) |
| 2009 | U | Arian Foster | 350 | 2220 |
| 2003 | 4 | Domanick Davis | 1382 | 1776 |
| 2004 | U | Willie Parker | 202 | 1420 |
| 2012 | 6 | Alfred Morris | 1690 | 1353 |
| 2008 | 5 | Tim Hightower | 636 | 1026 |
| 2004 | 4 | Mewelde Moore | 617 | 1001 |
| 2008 | 7 | Justin Forsett | 0 | 969 |
| 2003 | 4 | Onterrio Smith | 708 | 938 |
| 2010 | U | LeGarrette Blount | 1021 | 929 |
| 2003 | 4 | Lee Suggs | 289 | 922 |
| 2007 | U | Pierre Thomas | 403 | 909 |
| 2012 | 4 | Lamar Miller | 295 | 879 |
| 2005 | 4 | Marion Barber | 653 | 850 |
By Year 3, even more of those players have emerged. Over that same 14-year span, 18 running backs selected from the fourth round on (or undrafted) have put up at least 800 total yards in their third seasons. Only two of them reached even 700 total yards as rookies. Way too soon, thus, to write off the likes of Murray, Taylor or Robinson.
| LATE-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 3, 2000-2013 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Yds (Yr 1) | Yds (Yr 2) | Yds (Yr 3) |
| 2009 | U | Arian Foster | 350 | 2220 | 1841 |
| 2004 | U | Willie Parker | 202 | 1420 | 1716 |
| 2008 | 7 | Peyton Hillis | 522 | 73 | 1654 |
| 2003 | 4 | Domanick Davis | 1382 | 1776 | 1313 |
| 2005 | 4 | Marion Barber | 653 | 850 | 1257 |
| 2005 | 4 | Brandon Jacobs | 99 | 572 | 1183 |
| 2001 | 4 | Rudi Johnson | 0 | 101 | 1103 |
| 2007 | U | Pierre Thomas | 403 | 909 | 1095 |
| 2008 | U | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 312 | 125 | 1093 |
| 2007 | 7 | Ahmad Bradshaw | 202 | 397 | 985 |
| 2011 | 4 | Bilal Powell | 28 | 577 | 969 |
| 2010 | U | Joique Bell | 0 | 0 | 899 |
| 2002 | 6 | Chester Taylor | 251 | 408 | 898 |
| 2006 | U | Fred Jackson | 0 | 490 | 888 |
| 2008 | 5 | Tim Hightower | 636 | 1026 | 872 |
| 2007 | 7 | Jason Snelling | 43 | 151 | 872 |
| 2008 | 5 | Ryan Torain | 69 | 0 | 867 |
| 2006 | 4 | Leon Washington | 920 | 566 | 803 |
--Andy Richardson