Last week I talked about poor sources of fantasy information in the off season. Coaches, players and agents all have agendas that have nothing to do with you or your team. If anything they say happens to sound fantasy-relevant, it's a dangerous coincidence. You're better off ignoring the bulk of what they say. (Last week's column) But there's one group I left out, because they deserve to be singled out in their own column: The media. If any group has the ability to derail your fantasy fortunes before the season starts, it's your local newspaper, radio or television station.
Exclusive interviews, training camp reports and "inside information" will be distributed to fans over the next several weeks: A starter has come to camp in great shape, with renewed determination. He's looking forward to a bounce-back year. The new coordinator is installing a fast-paced offense which should translate into a gold mine of catches, yards and touchdowns. The rookies are learning the playbook like young Peyton Mannings, adapting to the professional game quickly with an eye on making a big impact from day one. And that expensive free agent is ready to earn their money and help turn things around quickly.
Maybe, just maybe, some of that is true. But it would be a coincidence, because the purpose of those reports isn't to actually provide information fans might find useful. It's to stay on the team's good side, and get a return on their investment.
That's often a significant time investment, but it can also be a financial one. Media outlets often pay to be the "official blah blah blah" of your favorite team. They get special access to practices. The players get radio shows on the station. The reporters get their calls returned first, and any team-orchestrated "leaks" happen to go directly to that newspaper. It's a business relationship, and a very valuable one.
So, tell me: How much negative publicity are they going to report before the season starts? Sure, an arrest or public scandal will get appropriate news coverage. But if the young quarterback who looked lost in 2013 looks even loster* in 2014, are they going to harp on it? If a beloved face of the franchise doesn't have it anymore, is that going to be a lead story? If the free agent that broke the bank is more interested in spending his signing bonus than sweating on the practice field, is that going to be an interview question?
Of course not. No media outlet wants to make enemies on the team in July and August. They might need them as friends in November and December. So that's going to cloud the kind of reporting you see. It's also the opposite of what fans want. After waiting several months for football to return, they don't want to hear how a 6-10 team might struggle to match last year's win total. They want to feel good about the team. They want to get to know the players and feel informed. They want their support to be validated with a little optimism and some good news. And really, there's nothing wrong with that.
Unless you're a fantasy owner. Then there's all kinds of wrong with that, because all those conflicting agendas could hurt you on draft day. I suggest you take local media reports about the hometown team with an ocean of salt. If you want information as a fan, have at it and enjoy the coverage. But as a fantasy owner, go to outside sources for your evaluations. Look up the newspapers of division rivals and see what they say about your team. They have no reason to sugar-coat anything. Or find a random newspaper two time zones away and see what they're saying. They have no agenda when it comes to your hometown team. At least the information, while pretty speculative this early in the year, won't have some of the biases you'll find at home.
By the way, bias isn't always a bad thing. Those aging players are often pillars in the community, starting charities, organizing fundraisers and helping the less-privileged in the cities where they play. Many of them stick around when they retire and become community figures for years to come. They're good people, so why focus on diminished skills in the twilight of their career? Why harp on the negatives when they bring so many positives to the area?
I get that, and have no problem acknowledging that a player's worth goes far beyond the statistics they produce on the football field. I can acknowledge that as a fan, that is. But as a fantasy owner, I can't allow outside influences affect how I feel about players in 2014. I can cheer a guy on Sundays and salute him when they retire his jersey or bestow team or league honors on him. But if his 2014 campaign looks questionable, I'll probably let someone else select him.
So beware of local media. They lie. Make note of your own bias as a fan. Don't inflate the value of local players, and make sure you have objective sources that are independent of business arrangements with the team in question. The more skeptical you are now, the better off you'll be in September.
- I know "loster" isn't a word. I'm just looking forward to the Dumb and Dumber sequel. Here's the trailer.