I poked around with some wide receiver numbers yesterday, showing that guys at the position haven’t improved as much as you would expect over the years (given that teams are passing a lot more). That is, the 25th-best receiver last year hasn’t been any better than the other 25th-best receivers of the last 20 years.
The big differences – the growth – is at the tight end position. And let me roll those numbers out for you now. I’ll do so in the same fashion. The first three numbers for each guy are obvious – catches, yards and touchdowns.
Then you see fantasy points (6 points for TDs, and 1 for every 10 yards). Then there’s a “ratio” number, showing how said player compares to the other 19 guys in his subset. If a ratio number is over 100%, that means he’s been better than average, in comparison to the other guys. If he’s under 100 percent, that means he’s below average (in comparison to the other 19 guys in his group).
I’ll start with the No. 1 guys, even though it’s the least meaningful in this study (since it’s just one guy). For the remaining positions, the ranking is more telling because to be the 10th-best tight end, that means there are nine others coming in ahead of him. Regardless, of the best tight ends of the last 20 years, the top 2 have come come in the last three years, Gronk and Graham.
| NO. 1 TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points | Ratio |
| 1994 | Ben Coates | 96 | 1174 | 7 | 159.4 | 99% |
| 1995 | Ben Coates | 84 | 915 | 6 | 127.5 | 80% |
| 1996 | Shannon Sharpe | 80 | 1062 | 10 | 166.2 | 104% |
| 1997 | Shannon Sharpe | 72 | 1107 | 3 | 130.7 | 82% |
| 1998 | Shannon Sharpe | 64 | 768 | 10 | 136.8 | 85% |
| 1999 | Wesley Walls | 63 | 822 | 12 | 154.2 | 96% |
| 2000 | Tony Gonzalez | 93 | 1203 | 9 | 174.3 | 109% |
| 2001 | Tony Gonzalez | 73 | 917 | 6 | 129.7 | 81% |
| 2002 | Todd Heap | 68 | 836 | 6 | 121.6 | 76% |
| 2003 | Tony Gonzalez | 71 | 916 | 10 | 151.6 | 95% |
| 2004 | Antonio Gates | 81 | 964 | 13 | 174.4 | 109% |
| 2005 | Antonio Gates | 89 | 1101 | 10 | 170.1 | 106% |
| 2006 | Antonio Gates | 71 | 924 | 9 | 146.4 | 91% |
| 2007 | Jason Witten | 96 | 1145 | 7 | 156.5 | 98% |
| 2008 | Tony Gonzalez | 96 | 1058 | 10 | 165.8 | 103% |
| 2009 | Vernon Davis | 78 | 965 | 13 | 174.5 | 109% |
| 2010 | Jason Witten | 94 | 1002 | 9 | 156.2 | 97% |
| 2011 | Rob Gronkowski | 90 | 1327 | 18 | 240.7 | 150% |
| 2012 | Jimmy Graham | 85 | 982 | 9 | 152.2 | 95% |
| 2013 | Jimmy Graham | 86 | 1215 | 16 | 217.5 | 136% |
Now let’s look at the 10th-best tight end, which is far more important. These are the lesser starters in fantasy leagues, and you see incredible growth in this area. Notice that the five best of the 10th-best tight ends have all come in the last five years. All are over 20 percent better than the average for this group.
Twenty years ago, the 10th-best tight end was Howard Cross, with 31 catches for 364 yards and 4 TDs. The 10th-best tight end last year, Martellus Bennett, had only one more touchdown but over twice as many catches and yards.
| 10th-BEST TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points | Ratio |
| 1994 | Howard Cross | 31 | 364 | 4 | 60.4 | 74% |
| 1995 | Brent Jones | 60 | 595 | 3 | 77.5 | 95% |
| 1996 | Brian Kinchen | 55 | 581 | 1 | 64.1 | 79% |
| 1997 | Ernie Conwell | 38 | 404 | 4 | 64.4 | 79% |
| 1998 | Tony Gonzalez | 59 | 621 | 2 | 74.1 | 91% |
| 1999 | Marcus Pollard | 34 | 374 | 4 | 61.4 | 76% |
| 2000 | Marcus Pollard | 30 | 439 | 3 | 63.9 | 79% |
| 2001 | Jay Riemersma | 53 | 590 | 3 | 77.0 | 95% |
| 2002 | Kyle Brady | 43 | 461 | 4 | 70.1 | 86% |
| 2003 | Jeremy Shockey | 48 | 535 | 2 | 65.5 | 81% |
| 2004 | Bubba Franks | 34 | 361 | 7 | 78.1 | 96% |
| 2005 | Jerramy Stevens | 45 | 554 | 5 | 85.4 | 105% |
| 2006 | Benjamin Watson | 49 | 643 | 3 | 82.3 | 101% |
| 2007 | Tony Scheffler | 49 | 549 | 5 | 84.9 | 104% |
| 2008 | Anthony Fasano | 34 | 454 | 7 | 87.4 | 108% |
| 2009 | Greg Olsen | 60 | 612 | 8 | 109.2 | 134% |
| 2010 | Zach Miller | 60 | 685 | 5 | 98.5 | 121% |
| 2011 | Brent Celek | 62 | 811 | 5 | 111.1 | 137% |
| 2012 | Brandon Myers | 79 | 806 | 4 | 104.6 | 129% |
| 2013 | Martellus Bennett | 65 | 759 | 5 | 105.9 | 130% |
Skipping down to the 20th-best tight ends, these are guys who are on fantasy rosters but not generally starting. The top 4 guys (by far) have come in the last four years. And these guys blow away what was ranking 20th back in the ‘90s.
| 20th-BEST TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points | Ratio |
| 1994 | Adrian Cooper | 32 | 363 | 0 | 36.3 | 67% |
| 1995 | Andrew Glover | 26 | 220 | 3 | 40.0 | 74% |
| 1996 | Mark Chmura | 28 | 370 | 0 | 37.0 | 69% |
| 1997 | Mark Bruener | 18 | 117 | 6 | 47.7 | 88% |
| 1998 | Johnny McWilliams | 26 | 284 | 4 | 52.4 | 97% |
| 1999 | Mikhael Ricks | 40 | 429 | 0 | 44.9 | 83% |
| 2000 | Greg Clark | 38 | 342 | 2 | 46.2 | 86% |
| 2001 | Roland Williams | 33 | 298 | 3 | 47.8 | 89% |
| 2002 | Frank Wycheck | 40 | 346 | 2 | 46.6 | 86% |
| 2003 | Jed Weaver | 35 | 437 | 1 | 49.7 | 92% |
| 2004 | Mark Campbell | 17 | 203 | 5 | 50.3 | 93% |
| 2005 | Jeb Putzier | 37 | 481 | 0 | 50.1 | 93% |
| 2006 | Tony Scheffler | 18 | 286 | 4 | 52.6 | 98% |
| 2007 | Leonard Pope | 23 | 238 | 5 | 53.8 | 100% |
| 2008 | Daniel Graham | 32 | 389 | 4 | 62.9 | 117% |
| 2009 | Marcedes Lewis | 32 | 518 | 2 | 63.8 | 118% |
| 2010 | Tony Moeaki | 47 | 556 | 3 | 73.6 | 137% |
| 2011 | Anthony Fasano | 32 | 451 | 5 | 75.1 | 139% |
| 2012 | Jared Cook | 44 | 523 | 4 | 76.3 | 142% |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz | 36 | 469 | 4 | 70.9 | 132% |
Skipping down to the 30th-best tight ends, now we’re looking at guys who might not even be on fantasy rosters. Again, the best four guys by a mile are the four from the last four years.
| 30th-BEST TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points | Ratio |
| 1994 | Marv Cook | 21 | 212 | 1 | 27.2 | 72% |
| 1995 | Derrick Walker | 25 | 205 | 1 | 26.5 | 70% |
| 1996 | Eric Green | 15 | 150 | 1 | 21.0 | 55% |
| 1997 | Chad Lewis | 12 | 94 | 4 | 33.4 | 88% |
| 1998 | Damon Jones | 8 | 90 | 4 | 33.0 | 87% |
| 1999 | Dwayne Carswell | 24 | 201 | 2 | 32.1 | 85% |
| 2000 | Jermaine Wiggins | 18 | 207 | 2 | 32.7 | 86% |
| 2001 | Tywan Mitchell | 25 | 196 | 2 | 31.6 | 83% |
| 2002 | Tony McGee | 23 | 294 | 1 | 35.4 | 94% |
| 2003 | Kyle Brady | 29 | 281 | 1 | 34.1 | 90% |
| 2004 | Ben Troupe | 33 | 329 | 1 | 38.9 | 103% |
| 2005 | Desmond Clark | 24 | 229 | 2 | 34.9 | 92% |
| 2006 | Daniel Graham | 21 | 235 | 2 | 35.5 | 94% |
| 2007 | David Martin | 34 | 303 | 2 | 42.3 | 112% |
| 2008 | Alex Smith | 21 | 250 | 3 | 43.0 | 114% |
| 2009 | Randy McMichael | 34 | 332 | 1 | 39.2 | 104% |
| 2010 | Daniel Fells | 41 | 391 | 2 | 51.1 | 135% |
| 2011 | Benjamin Watson | 37 | 410 | 2 | 53.0 | 140% |
| 2012 | Tony Scheffler | 42 | 504 | 1 | 56.4 | 149% |
| 2013 | Ladarius Green | 17 | 376 | 3 | 55.6 | 147% |
Here are 40th-best tight ends. Now we’re down to guys who might not be on a fantasy roster all year. Again, top 4 guys by a lot come from the last four years.
| 40th-BEST TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points | Ratio |
| 1994 | Rodney Holman | 17 | 163 | 0 | 16.3 | 65% |
| 1995 | Keith Jackson | 13 | 142 | 1 | 20.2 | 80% |
| 1996 | Pete Metzelaars | 17 | 146 | 0 | 14.6 | 58% |
| 1997 | James Jenkins | 4 | 43 | 3 | 22.3 | 89% |
| 1998 | David Sloan | 11 | 146 | 1 | 20.6 | 82% |
| 1999 | Terry Hardy | 30 | 222 | 0 | 22.2 | 88% |
| 2000 | Jeremy Brigham | 13 | 107 | 2 | 22.7 | 90% |
| 2001 | Kris Mangum | 15 | 89 | 2 | 20.9 | 83% |
| 2002 | Jeff Thomason | 10 | 128 | 2 | 24.8 | 98% |
| 2003 | Tony Stewart | 21 | 212 | 0 | 21.2 | 84% |
| 2004 | Mike Seidman | 13 | 123 | 2 | 26.3 | 104% |
| 2005 | Ernie Conwell | 13 | 165 | 1 | 22.5 | 89% |
| 2006 | Ben Troupe | 13 | 150 | 2 | 27.0 | 107% |
| 2007 | Will Heller | 13 | 82 | 3 | 26.2 | 104% |
| 2008 | Steve Heiden | 23 | 249 | 0 | 24.9 | 99% |
| 2009 | Ben Patrick | 12 | 146 | 2 | 26.6 | 106% |
| 2010 | Michael Hoomanawanui | 13 | 146 | 3 | 32.6 | 129% |
| 2011 | James Casey | 18 | 260 | 1 | 32.0 | 127% |
| 2012 | Logan Paulsen | 25 | 308 | 1 | 36.8 | 146% |
| 2013 | Andrew Quarless | 32 | 312 | 2 | 43.2 | 171% |
My conclusion is that more teams are making a lot more use of tight ends. Yesterday with the wide receivers, we didn’t see big spreads between players across the years, just slight improvements (and some declines). With tight ends, we’re seeing big spreads, and we’re seeing it consistently.
The NFL game has changed, with more passing, and tight ends more than any of position are the guys catching those extra passes and touchdowns.
—Ian Allan