Factoid

July 19, 2014

Wide receiver growth

Teams making more use of multiple-receiver sets

I posted the wide receiver trend on Thursday, pointing out that wide receiver production hasn’t increased as much as you would expect over the years, given that passing production has zoomed through the roof.

A couple of readers wrote in asking about receiver diversity, speculating that more teams are using more receivers.

There’s some of this (see the last four years), but I don’t think that’s the main drive. I think it’s more tight ends who are benefitting Tight ends are catching more passes, and more teams are using multiple players at that position. Those are the guys grabbing most of the additional passing production that’s being created.

I’ll post some tight end data tomorrow that I think will support that premise. For today I’m focusing just on wide receivers.

This time, I’m going 20 years back, and I’m looking at the like-ranked wide receivers. That is, it’s based on how receivers finished each year. I’ll compare the No. 1 wide receivers from each of those 20 years against each other. And (more importantly) I’ll stack up the Nos. 20, 25 and 30 receivers against each other.

For the No. 1 receivers, the guy who finished in the top spot in 1994 and 1995, Jerry Rice, put up better numbers than the guys who’ve been No. 1 the last two years, Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas. So no stat inflation there.

For each guy here, you’re looking at his number of catches, yards and touchdowns, and his fantasy points (using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards). The last number “ratio” show how he scores relative to the other 19 guys in his same group. If a number is over 100 percent, that means he’s beating the average. If his number is under 100 percent, that means he’s below average in comparison with the other wide receivers. In five of the last six years, the No. 1 receiver has put up below-average numbers relative to what we usually see out of a No. 1 receiver.

NO. 1 RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Jerry Rice	112	1499	15	241.9	102%
1995	Jerry Rice	122	1848	17	292.8	124%
1996	Michael Jackson	76	1201	14	208.1	88%
1997	Rob Moore	97	1584	8	208.4	88%
1998	Randy Moss	68	1313	17	237.3	100%
1999	Marvin Harrison	115	1663	12	240.3	101%
2000	Randy Moss	77	1437	15	235.7	100%
2001	Marvin Harrison	109	1524	15	242.4	102%
2002	Marvin Harrison	143	1722	11	240.2	101%
2003	Randy Moss	111	1632	17	265.2	112%
2004	Muhsin Muhammad	93	1405	16	236.5	100%
2005	Steve Smith	103	1563	13	234.3	99%
2006	Marvin Harrison	95	1366	12	208.6	88%
2007	Randy Moss	98	1493	23	287.3	121%
2008	Larry Fitzgerald	96	1431	12	215.1	91%
2009	Andre Johnson	101	1569	9	212.9	90%
2010	Brandon Lloyd	77	1448	11	210.8	89%
2011	Calvin Johnson	96	1681	16	264.1	112%
2012	Calvin Johnson	122	1964	5	226.4	96%
2013	Demaryius Thomas	92	1430	14	227.0	96%

Skipping down to the 10th-best receivers, I see improvement. Roddy White and Alshon Jeffery (the No. 10s the last two years) have been better than the usual No. 10s. Maybe not by quite as much as you might expect, but they’ve been better.

10th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Cris Carter	122	1256	7	171.6	100%
1995	Anthony Miller	59	1079	14	191.9	112%
1996	Jimmy Smith	83	1244	7	166.4	97%
1997	Irving Fryar	86	1316	6	167.6	98%
1998	Ed McCaffrey	64	1053	10	167.3	98%
1999	Muhsin Muhammad	96	1253	8	173.3	101%
2000	Cris Carter	96	1274	9	181.4	106%
2001	Derrick Mason	73	1128	10	174.8	102%
2002	Jerry Rice	92	1211	7	163.1	95%
2003	Darrell Jackson	68	1137	9	167.7	98%
2004	Donald Driver	84	1208	9	176.8	103%
2005	Hines Ward	69	975	11	163.5	95%
2006	Javon Walker	69	1084	9	162.4	95%
2007	Plaxico Burress	70	1025	12	174.5	102%
2008	Terrell Owens	69	1052	10	165.2	96%
2009	Vincent Jackson	68	1167	9	170.7	100%
2010	Stevie Johnson	82	1073	10	167.3	98%
2011	Marques Colston	80	1143	8	162.3	95%
2012	Roddy White	92	1351	7	177.1	103%
2013	Alshon Jeffery	89	1421	7	186.1	108%

But look now at the No. 20s. This is where you would figure we’d be getting down far enough that the 2013 receivers would be a lot better than what was occurring in the ‘90s, given the way passing offenses have exploded. But it hasn’t gone down that way. Instead, there’s been little growth in this area of wide receivers. T.Y. Hilton had a nice season last year, but he was really nothing special in comparison to the other receivers who’ve finished 20th in the last 20 years. Same with Stevie Johnson the previous year.

20th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Michael Haynes	77	985	5	128.5	93%
1995	Bill Brooks	53	763	11	142.3	102%
1996	Keenan McCardell	85	1129	3	134.9	97%
1997	Terrell Owens	60	936	8	141.6	102%
1998	Muhsin Muhammad	68	941	6	132.1	95%
1999	Antonio Freeman	74	1074	6	143.4	103%
2000	Keyshawn Johnson	71	874	8	135.4	97%
2001	Bill Schroeder	53	918	9	145.8	105%
2002	Keyshawn Johnson	76	1088	5	142.8	103%
2003	Isaac Bruce	69	981	5	128.1	92%
2004	Jerry Porter	64	998	9	153.8	111%
2005	Donte Stallworth	70	945	7	136.5	98%
2006	Terry Glenn	70	1047	6	140.7	101%
2007	Derrick Mason	103	1087	5	138.7	100%
2008	Wes Welker	111	1165	3	136.5	98%
2009	Greg Jennings	68	1113	4	139.3	100%
2010	Braylon Edwards	53	904	7	134.4	97%
2011	Julio Jones	54	959	8	143.9	104%
2012	Stevie Johnson	79	1046	6	140.6	101%
2013	T.Y. Hilton	82	1083	5	138.3	100%

Similar with the 30th-best receivers. You would expect the modern-day guys would be dramatically better. But Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright haven’t been much better than the like-ranked receivers from the past.

30th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Desmond Howard	40	727	5	104.7	90%
1995	Mark Carrier	66	1002	3	118.2	102%
1996	Jeff Graham	50	788	6	114.8	99%
1997	Quinn Early	60	853	5	115.3	99%
1998	Darnay Scott	51	817	7	123.7	106%
1999	Az-Zahir Hakim	36	677	9	121.7	105%
2000	Donald Hayes	66	926	3	110.6	95%
2001	Kevin Dyson	54	825	7	126.5	109%
2002	Brian Finneran	56	838	6	119.8	103%
2003	Jimmy Smith	54	805	4	104.5	90%
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	58	780	8	126.0	108%
2005	Lee Evans	48	743	7	116.3	100%
2006	Eddie Kennison	53	860	5	116.0	100%
2007	Hines Ward	71	732	7	117.2	101%
2008	DeSean Jackson	62	912	4	115.2	99%
2009	Austin Collie	60	676	7	109.6	94%
2010	Pierre Garcon	67	784	6	114.4	98%
2011	Jeremy Maclin	63	859	5	115.9	100%
2012	Justin Blackmon	64	865	5	118.5	102%
2013	Kendall Wright	94	1079	2	119.9	103%

Now let’s skip down to the No. 50 guys. These guys in general are No. 2 receivers or lesser No. 1. And here, we’re starting to see the modern guys start to shine. Breaston, LaFell, Hopkins. Not that any of these guys were fantasy forces, but they were all at least 7 percent better than the positional average of the last 20 years.

50th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Rocket Ismail	34	513	5	81.3	96%
1995	Daryl Hobbs	38	612	3	79.2	94%
1996	Willie Davis	39	464	6	82.4	97%
1997	Karl Williams	33	486	5	78.6	93%
1998	Floyd Turner	32	512	5	85.2	101%
1999	Corey Bradford	37	637	5	95.7	113%
2000	Sylvester Morris	48	678	3	85.8	101%
2001	Travis Taylor	42	560	3	74.0	87%
2002	Terry Glenn	56	817	2	93.7	111%
2003	Keyshawn Johnson	45	600	3	78.0	92%
2004	Joey Galloway	33	416	6	77.6	92%
2005	Brian Finneran	50	611	2	79.1	94%
2006	Reggie Williams	52	616	4	85.6	101%
2007	Donte Stallworth	46	697	3	87.7	104%
2008	Johnnie Lee Higgins	22	366	7	78.6	93%
2009	Davone Bess	76	758	2	87.8	104%
2010	Mike Williams	65	751	2	87.1	103%
2011	Steve Breaston	61	785	2	90.5	107%
2012	Brandon LaFell	44	677	4	91.7	108%
2013	DeAndre Hopkins	52	802	2	92.2	109%

Dropping down to No. 60. Now depth is starting to emerge. Five years in a row, the 60th-best receiver has been at least 4 percent better than what you typically see from a No. 60 receiver over the last 20 years.

60th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Lawrence Dawsey	46	673	1	73.3	102%
1995	Floyd Turner	35	431	4	71.1	99%
1996	Willie Jackson	33	486	3	68.6	96%
1997	Freddie Solomon	29	455	3	65.5	91%
1998	Irving Fryar	48	556	2	67.6	94%
1999	Patrick Johnson	29	526	3	70.6	98%
2000	Ricky Proehl	31	441	4	68.1	95%
2001	Derrick Alexander	27	470	3	65.0	91%
2002	Az-Zahir Hakim	37	541	4	78.1	109%
2003	Troy Brown	40	472	4	71.2	99%
2004	Shaun McDonald	37	494	3	67.4	94%
2005	Michael Jenkins	36	508	3	68.8	96%
2006	Rod Smith	52	512	3	69.2	96%
2007	Michael Jenkins	53	532	4	77.2	108%
2008	Jeherme Urban	34	448	4	68.8	96%
2009	Louis Murphy	34	521	4	76.1	106%
2010	Jacoby Jones	51	562	3	76.2	106%
2011	Dezmon Briscoe	35	387	6	74.7	104%
2012	DeSean Jackson	45	700	2	82.0	114%
2013	Danny Amendola	54	633	2	75.3	105%

The numbers for the No. 70 receivers look similar. The modern-day guys are a notch better.

70th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Randal Hill	38	544	0	54.4	91%
1995	Aaron Bailey	21	379	4	61.9	104%
1996	Floyd Turner	38	461	2	58.1	98%
1997	Lamar Thomas	28	402	2	52.2	88%
1998	Derrick Mayes	30	394	3	57.4	97%
1999	Jason Tucker	23	439	2	55.9	94%
2000	James Jett	20	356	2	47.6	80%
2001	Tim Dwight	25	406	2	52.6	88%
2002	Bobby Shaw	44	525	2	64.5	108%
2003	Donte Stallworth	25	485	3	66.5	112%
2004	Quincy Morgan	31	404	3	58.4	98%
2005	Brandon Stokley	41	543	1	60.3	101%
2006	Antwaan Randle El	32	351	4	59.1	99%
2007	Sidney Rice	31	396	4	63.6	107%
2008	Mark Bradley	30	380	3	60.0	101%
2009	Andre Caldwell	51	432	3	61.2	103%
2010	Blair White	36	355	5	65.5	110%
2011	Arrelious Benn	30	441	3	62.1	104%
2012	Jason Avant	53	648	0	64.8	109%
2013	Jacoby Jones	37	455	3	63.5	107%

Here are the 80th-best guys, and these are the last I’ll show. This is the strongest group of all (at least in terms modern-day guys being better than their counterparts from the past). In each of the last three years, the 80th-best receiver in the league has beaten the average by at least 13 percent.

80th-BEST RECEIVERS OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points	Ratio
1994	Andre Hastings	20	281	2	40.1	83%
1995	John Taylor	29	387	2	50.7	105%
1996	Kelvin Martin	25	380	1	44.0	91%
1997	Lake Dawson	21	273	2	39.3	82%
1998	Patrick Jeffers	18	330	2	45.0	93%
1999	Tony Simmons	19	276	2	39.6	82%
2000	Isaac Byrd	22	241	2	36.1	75%
2001	Bobby Engram	29	400	0	40.0	83%
2002	Frank Sanders	34	400	2	54.0	112%
2003	Kelley Washington	22	299	4	53.9	112%
2004	Dez White	30	370	2	49.0	102%
2005	Troy Williamson	24	372	2	49.2	102%
2006	Roddy White	30	506	0	50.6	105%
2007	Derek Hagan	29	373	2	51.3	107%
2008	Harry Douglas	23	320	3	50.0	104%
2009	Mike Thomas	48	453	1	51.3	107%
2010	Devery Henderson	34	464	1	52.4	109%
2011	Danario Alexander	26	431	2	55.1	114%
2012	Tiquan Underwood	28	425	2	54.5	113%
2013	Santana Moss	42	452	2	57.2	119%

What I’m seeing as I look at these charts is more separation as you get farther down the list. That is, not much difference with the top receivers (the ones guys are drafting in the second-third rounds of fantasy drafts) but a lot of improvement with the guys who are getting drafted really late (or not at all) in fantasy leagues. This supports the premise that more teams are making more use of their third and fourth receivers. That’s a downer for fantasy purposes, since it means a higher portion of the receiving production is being accumulated by guys who aren’t even involved in the outcome of fantasy games.

—Ian Allan

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