One thing we know about the NFL is that some teams will change a lot. Last place teams will win divisions, and defending division champs will finish with losing records.
The league went to its current eight-division format in 2002. Since that time, every single year, at least one of the eight teams finishing last in their division has won the playoffs. In all but three of those 11 seasons, as least two of those last-place teams have made the playoffs.
| LAST TO PLAYOFFS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | W | L | T |
| 2003 | Dallas | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2003 | Carolina | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| 2004 | Atlanta | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2005 | Washington | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2005 | Chicago | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2006 | Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2006 | New Orleans | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2006 | NY Jets | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2007 | Washington | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| 2008 | Philadelphia | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| 2008 | Atlanta | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2008 | Miami | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2008 | Baltimore | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| 2010 | Kansas City | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2011 | Denver | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 2011 | Cincinnati | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| 2012 | Washington | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2012 | Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2013 | Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 |
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the eight last-place teams from 2013. The historical trends tells us that probably two (or even three) of these teams will be in the playoffs this year.
Buffalo Bills. Defense looks very good. They ranked 2nd in rushing last year. But offense doesn’t look dynamic enough. Tough to see them getting over the hump. But maybe.
Cleveland Browns. Good defense. Doesn’t seem to have enough on offense, especially at quarterback. Losing Josh Gordon for the season would be a huge blow.
Houston Texans. Houston is only a year removed from winning the division with a 12-4 record. Quarterback is an issue, and two best offensive players currently struggling with hamstring injuries. Doesn’t seem likely.
Oakland Raiders. Not enough talent. Definitely won’t finish with a winning record.
Washington. Washington won the NFC East in 2012 and has plenty of weapons. It’s all riding on Jay Gruden’s ability to restore Robert Griffin III, which is possible.
Minnesota Vikings. They’ve got Adrian Peterson. Cordarrelle Patterson could be a breakout receiver. Norv Turner needs to manufacture adequate quarterback play. Defense allowed a league-high 480 points last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They pumped a lot of talent into that roster, so it’s a team that’s definitely moving up. Lovie Smith had a nice track record in Chicago. Quarterback is a question mark. Tough division, but a wild-card spot is possible.
St. Louis Rams. Might have the best defensive line in football. Pass rush will be very good. But in a rugged division. Seahawks and 49ers might have been the best two teams in the league last year, and Cardinals won 10 games.
If form holds, two of these teams will make the playoffs. I think Washington and Tampa Bay look like the most likely options.
If I had to rank them 1-8, I’d go: Washington, Bucs, Bills, Texans, Vikings, Rams, Browns, Raiders.
—Ian Allan